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AI is a floor raiser, not a ceiling raiser

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141–150 of 218 posts

Re: AI is a floor raiser, not a ceiling raiser

#141
post #41

This tracks for other areas of AI I am more familiar with. Below average people can use AI to get average results.

This is in line with another quip about AI: You need to know more than the LLM in order to gain any benefit from it.

Hmm I don't feel like this should be taken as a tenet of AI. I feel a more relevant kernel would be less black and white.

Also I think what you're saying is a direct contradiction of the parent. Below average people can now get average results; in other words: The LLM will boost your capabilities (at least if you're already 'less' capable than average). This is a huge benefit if you are in that camp.

But for other cases too, all you need to know is where your knowledge ends, and that you can't just blindly accept what the AI responds with. In fact, I find LLMs are often most useful precisely when you don’t know the answer. When you’re trying to fill in conceptual gaps and explore an idea.

Even say during code generation, where you might not fully grasp what’s produced, you can treat the model like pair programming and ask it follow-up questions and dig into what each part does. They're very good at converting "nebulous concept description" into "legitimate standard keyword" so that you can go and find out about said concept that you're unfamiliar with.

Realistically the only time I feel I know more than the LLM is when I am working on something that I am explicitly an expert in, and in which case often find that LLMs provide nuance lacking suggestions that don’t always add much. It takes a lot more filling in context in these situations for it to be beneficial (but still can be).

Take a random example of nifty bit of engineering: The powerline ethernet adapter. A curious person might encounter these and wonder how they work. I don't believe an understanding of this technology is very obvious to a layman. Start asking questions and you very quickly come to understand how it embeds bits in the very same signal that transmits power through your house without any interference between the two "types" of signal. It adds data to high frequencies on one end, and filters out the regular power transmitting frequencies at the other end so that the signal can be converted back into bits for use in the ethernet cable (for a super brief summary). But if want to really drill into each and every engineering concept, all I need to do is continue the conversation.

I personally find this loop to be unlike anything I've experienced as far as getting immediate access to an understanding and supplementary material for the exact thing Im wondering about.

Re: AI is a floor raiser, not a ceiling raiser

#142
post #52
post #50

The blog post has a bunch of charts, which gives it a veneer of objectivity and rigor, but in reality it's just all vibes and conjecture. Meanwhile recent empirical studies actually point in the opposite direction, showing that AI use increases inequality, not decrease it. https://www.economist.com/content-assets/images/20250215_FNC... https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/02/13/h...

The graphic has four studies that show increased inequality and six that show reduced inequality.

> The graphic has four studies that show increased inequality

Three, since Toner-Rodgers 2024 currently seems to be a total fabrication.

https://archive.is/Ql1lQ

Re: AI is a floor raiser, not a ceiling raiser

#143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you sure the extraloper doesn't just run away on tangents?

They run on secants towards the outside.

Wouldn't that be an exloper?

Edit: Geometrically, I agree an extraloper could run on secants (or radii) but they're not allowed to strike a chord.

But getting back to generative text, I feel that "tangent" is more appropriate ;-)

Re: AI is a floor raiser, not a ceiling raiser

#144

This mirrors insights from Andrew Ng's recent AI startup talk [1]. I recall he mentions in this video that the new advice they are giving to founders is to throw away prototypes when they pivot instead of building onto a core foundation. This is because of the effects described in the article. He also gives some provisional numbers (see the section "Rapid Prototyping and Engineering" and slides ~10:30) where he sugge…

Thanks for pointing this out. I think this is an insightful analogy. We will likely manage generated code in the same way we manage large cloud computing complexes. This probably does not apply to legacy code that has been in use for several years where the production deployment gives you a higher level of confidence (and a higher risk of regression errors with changes). Have you blogged about your insights, the http…

I'm currently in build mode. In some sense, my project is the most over complicated blog engine in the history of personal blog engines. I'm literally working on integrating a markdown editor to the project.

Once I have the MVP working, I will be working on publishing as a means to dogfood the tool. So, check back soon!

Re: AI is a floor raiser, not a ceiling raiser

#145
post #50

The blog post has a bunch of charts, which gives it a veneer of objectivity and rigor, but in reality it's just all vibes and conjecture. Meanwhile recent empirical studies actually point in the opposite direction, showing that AI use increases inequality, not decrease it. https://www.economist.com/content-assets/images/20250215_FNC... https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/02/13/h...

Yup. As a retired mathematician who craves the productivity of an obsessed 28 year old, I've been all in on AI in 2025. I'm now on Claude's $200/month Max plan in order to use Claude Code Opus 4 without restraint. I still hit limits, usually when I run parallel sessions to review a 57 file legacy code base.

For a time I refused to talk with anybody or read anything about AI, because it was all noise that didn't match my hard-earned experience. Recently HN has included some fascinating takes. This isn't one.

I have the opinion that neurodivergents are more successful using AI. This is so easily dismissed as hollow blather, but I have a precise theory backing this opinion.

AI is a giant association engine. Linear encoding (the "King - Man + Woman = Queen" thing) is linear algebra. I taught linear algebra for decades.

As I explained to my optometrist today, if you're trying to balance a plate (define a hyperplane) with three fingers, it works better if your fingers are farther apart.

My whole life people have rolled their eyes when I categorize a situation using analogies that are too far flung for their tolerances.

Now I spend most of my time coding with AI, and it responds very well to my "fingers farther apart" far reaching analogies for what I'm trying to focus on. It's an association engine based on linear algebra, and I have an astounding knack for describing subspaces.

AI is raising the ceiling, not the floor.

Re: AI is a floor raiser, not a ceiling raiser

#146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for pointing this out. I think this is an insightful analogy. We will likely manage generated code in the same way we manage large cloud computing complexes. This probably does not apply to legacy code that has been in use for several years where the production deployment gives you a higher level of confidence (and a higher risk of regression errors with changes). Have you blogged about your insights, the http…

I'm currently in build mode. In some sense, my project is the most over complicated blog engine in the history of personal blog engines. I'm literally working on integrating a markdown editor to the project. Once I have the MVP working, I will be working on publishing as a means to dogfood the tool. So, check back soon!

Is there a mailing list I can sign up for to be notified. The check back soon protocol reminds me of my youth.

Re: AI is a floor raiser, not a ceiling raiser

#147
post #50

The blog post has a bunch of charts, which gives it a veneer of objectivity and rigor, but in reality it's just all vibes and conjecture. Meanwhile recent empirical studies actually point in the opposite direction, showing that AI use increases inequality, not decrease it. https://www.economist.com/content-assets/images/20250215_FNC... https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/02/13/h...

Of course AI increases inequality. It's automated ladder pulling technology.

To become good at something you have to work through the lower rungs and acquire skill. AI does all those lower level jobs, puts the people who need those jobs for experience on the street, and robs us of future experts.

The people who benefit the most are those who are already up on top of the ladder investing billions to make the ladder raise faster and faster.

Re: AI is a floor raiser, not a ceiling raiser

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great point, but just mentioning (nitpicking?) that I never heard about machines/containers referred to as "livestock", but rather in my milieu it's always "pets" vs "cattle". I now wonder if it's a geographical thing.

Yeah, the CERN talk* [0] coined the term Pets vs. Cattle analogy, and it was way before VMs were cheap on bare metal. I think the word just evolved as the idea got rooted in the community. We use the same analogy for the last 20 years or so. Provisioning 150 cattle servers take 15 minutes or so, and we can provision a pet in a couple of hours, at most. [0]: https://www.engineyard.com/blog/pets-vs-cattle/ *: Engine Ya…

First time I heard it was from Adrian Cockcroft in... I think 2012, he def was talking about it a lot in 2013/2014, looks like he got it from Bill. https://se-radio.net/2014/12/episode-216-adrian-cockcroft-on...

Re: AI is a floor raiser, not a ceiling raiser

#150
I think a good way to see it is "AI is good for prototyping. AI is not good for engineering"

To clarify, I mean that the AI tools can help you get things done really fast but they lack both breadth and depth. You can move fast with them to generate proofs of concept (even around subproblems to large problems), but without breadth they lack the big picture context and without depth they lack the insights that any greybeard (master) has. On the other hand, the "engineering" side is so much more than "things work". It is about everything working in the right way, handling edge cases, being cognizant of context, creating failure modes, and all these other things. You could be the best programmer in the world, but that wouldn't mean you're even a good engineer (in real world these are coupled as skills learned simultaneously. You could be a perfect leetcoder and not helpful on an actual team, but these skills correlate).

The thing is, there will never be a magic button that a manager can press to engineer a product. The thing is, for a graybeard most of the time isn't spent around implementation, but design. The thing is, to get to mastery you need experience, and that experience requires understanding of nuanced things. Things that are non-obvious. There may be a magic button that allows an engineer to generate all the code for codebase, but that doesn't replace engineers. (I think this is also a problem in how we've been designing AI code generators. It's as if they're designed for management to magically generate features. The same thing they wish they could do with their engineers. But I think the better tool would be to focus on making a code generator that would generate based on an engineer's description.

I think Dijkstra's comments apply today just as much as they did then[0]

[0] On the foolishness of "natural language programming" https://www.cs.utexas.edu/~EWD/transcriptions/EWD06xx/EWD667...

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