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Danish Study: No link between vaccines and autism or other health conditions

en.ssi.dk

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Re: Danish Study: No link between vaccines and autism or other health conditions

#61

Post by rany_ »

SubiculumCode wrote: post #32

I am an autism researcher. While we cannot say 'vaccines never cause autism' we can say with confidence 'Other potential causes of autism have much better theoretical foundations, empirical evidence, prevalence, and effect sizes. With limited research budgets, we have better research targets to pursue first before further investigating vaccines."

This is exactly why the whole "vaccine causes autism" got started. We need to improve science literacy before we could say things like that to the general public.

When a layperson hears this, they'll think that there's a small but possible chance that vaccines do cause autism; when what the scientist means to say is that "it's highly unlikely that vaccines cause autism."

Re: Danish Study: No link between vaccines and autism or other health conditions

#62

Post by add-sub-mul-div »

another_twist wrote: post #22

The people who dont believe in vaccines or that they cause autism dont really get science. Wasting hard work trying to convince them is useless. These people truly are idiots, at best a burden on society and at worse a threat to public health. Its one thing to have a skepticism of the pharmaceutical industry, its not ill founded but if their entire personality is based on denying science I dont think we should waste…

Or maybe science is a red herring and they're just susceptible to demagoguery and whoever shouts the loudest and simplest.

Re: Danish Study: No link between vaccines and autism or other health conditions

#63

Post by blangk »

travoc wrote: post #49
api wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There seems to be something special about vaccines that really sets these people off, and it goes way way back. Vaccine paranoia is as old as vaccines and they’ve always drawn a special ire from believers in naturopathy, natural medicine, faith healing, new thought, and similar strands of thinking. I don’t quite get it.

It’s the whole “forced to take them by the government” that scares them. Ridiculous, since governments have always been trustworthy.

Governments have always been trustworthy?

Re: Danish Study: No link between vaccines and autism or other health conditions

#64

Post by mousethatroared »

relaxing wrote: post #59
SubiculumCode wrote: post #32

I am an autism researcher. While we cannot say 'vaccines never cause autism' we can say with confidence 'Other potential causes of autism have much better theoretical foundations, empirical evidence, prevalence, and effect sizes. With limited research budgets, we have better research targets to pursue first before further investigating vaccines."

That’s not a helpful way to communicate with the public. Instead you should follow the standards we hold for everyday occurrences, which is if there’s no compelling evidence, it’s safe to say it doesn’t happen.

"which is if there’s no compelling evidence, it’s safe to say it doesn’t happen."

I call BS.

Until there was compelling evidence that antidepressants cause suicidal ideation it's safe to say it doesn't

Until there was compelling evidence that contaminated water causes cholera it's safe to say it doesn't

Until there was compelling evidence that dirty hands cause maternal death it's safe to say it doesn't

Until there was compelling evidence that lack of sunlight causes neo-natal jaundice it's safe to say it doesn't

These examples span centuries, including the 21st, that were vigorously rejected by experts

Re: Danish Study: No link between vaccines and autism or other health conditions

#65

Post by lettergram »

dc396 wrote: post #2

The truly sad part is that regardless of the validity of the study, its methodology, or the results, the impact it will have in the political sphere or with the public will be negligible. It's maddening.

The study only covers aluminum:

> no association between aluminum in childhood vaccines and 50 different health conditions

It's right in the title, which was omitted on submission.

The concerns the public have are not aluminum, so of course it wont. Should also point out the argument largely made is that the _quantity_ of vaccines, particularly in the US are part of the problem.

Generally speaking, I'd welcome studies on what folks are actually saying. Having friends in both the avid vaccine advocates and the anti-vaccine crowd, I think both are just arguing past each other and not studying stuff rigorously enough to convince the other.

Re: Danish Study: No link between vaccines and autism or other health conditions

#66

Post by rayiner »

mousethatroared wrote: post #64
relaxing wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s not a helpful way to communicate with the public. Instead you should follow the standards we hold for everyday occurrences, which is if there’s no compelling evidence, it’s safe to say it doesn’t happen.

"which is if there’s no compelling evidence, it’s safe to say it doesn’t happen." I call BS. Until there was compelling evidence that antidepressants cause suicidal ideation it's safe to say it doesn't Until there was compelling evidence that contaminated water causes cholera it's safe to say it doesn't Until there was compelling evidence that dirty hands cause maternal death it's safe to say it doesn't Until there w…

Also, the internet makes this sort of well-intentioned deception both impossible and counter-productive.

Re: Danish Study: No link between vaccines and autism or other health conditions

#67

Post by rayiner »

another_twist wrote: post #22

The people who dont believe in vaccines or that they cause autism dont really get science. Wasting hard work trying to convince them is useless. These people truly are idiots, at best a burden on society and at worse a threat to public health. Its one thing to have a skepticism of the pharmaceutical industry, its not ill founded but if their entire personality is based on denying science I dont think we should waste…

Most people don’t “get science.” Their trust or not is social.

Re: Danish Study: No link between vaccines and autism or other health conditions

#68

Post by lapcat »

rayiner wrote: post #38
lapcat wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most people lack the ability to understand inferences drawn from mathematical analysis. It was never about that. The modern anti-vax movement has been traced back to Andrew Wakefield's fraudulent 1998 Lancet paper: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lancet_MMR_autism_fraud But it's not like the anti-vaxxers ever fully understood the original paper, much less the follow-up papers disputing it. And in fairness to the anti…

> the people who bought into the scare never came back and revised their beliefs based on new evidence. What's missing is the capacity for self-correction. Mathematics was never involved. I don’t think there’s much daylight between our positions. You’re correct that mathematics was never involved. Any trust most people had in vaccines was always social, not analytical. They never understood Wakefield’s original paper…

> And now, they didn’t trust the bottom-line conclusions being reported by the Lancet and the media.

That's the funny thing, though. Logically, distrusting The Lancet means distrusting Wakefield's paper too. It makes no sense to claim that The Lancet is untrustworthy while you still base your beliefs on a paper because it was published in The Lancet. If the journal goes down, the journal articles have to go down with it.

The difference is that these people had spent years building a personal identity around vaccine skepticism, as embattled fighters for the safety of children. Retraction of their beliefs would have been very painful, a blow to their self-image. Thus, it was easier to invent conspiracy theories about how their beliefs are still true, and now there's a cover-up.

Re: Danish Study: No link between vaccines and autism or other health conditions

#69

Post by Spooky23 »

lapcat wrote: post #30
rayiner wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people lack the ability to understand inferences drawn from mathematical analysis. It’s not just vaccines, it’s numeric or logical reasoning of all kinds. If you can’t explain why something is true in non-abstract terms, you can just forget it. And it’s true even for somewhat smarter than average people: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/msnbc-bloo... . I’ve become persuaded that for democracy to…

> Most people lack the ability to understand inferences drawn from mathematical analysis. It was never about that. The modern anti-vax movement has been traced back to Andrew Wakefield's fraudulent 1998 Lancet paper: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lancet_MMR_autism_fraud But it's not like the anti-vaxxers ever fully understood the original paper, much less the follow-up papers disputing it. And in fairness to the anti…

I’d argue it has more to do with the fall of mainline religion and the rise of the zealot.

In that vacuum, some people found independent churches and legacies, and others ended up following woo-woo new age bs, which the Internet organized at scale. We know about the Wakefield study because zealots pushed it hard. Fluoridation is another example - my city recently started it and the council was brigaded by lunatics from all over the world losing their minds over it.

Re: Danish Study: No link between vaccines and autism or other health conditions

#70

Post by rayiner »

pton_xd wrote: post #55
guelo wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only a tiny percentage of people would have personal anecdotes. The great majority of it especially after covid is driven by social media memes.

You'd think so but the rate of autism in the US just keeps going up, it's something like 1 in 31 kids now. Many people will know someone with an anecdote. Social media definitely does its part though, I agree.

If you’ve got elementary-school aged children you’re almost certainly just one degree of separation away from a parent whose kid has an autism diagnosis or something similar.
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