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OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August

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61–70 of 75 posts

Re: OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August

#61
post #11

What's the point of this article besides free propaganda? It seems to me like every other AI shop except for OpenAI and possibly Anthropic only gets mentioned once they actually release something.

Probably because OpenAI is the best at this than any other player in the game. They’re on their way to replacing Google as the #1 search engine. Instead of “google it” it’s going to be “gpt it”, and we all know who “gpt” is.

No one is ever going to say "gpt it", regardless of OpenAI's future.

Re: OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August

#62

If it were any good I would assume there would be no need to hype it up. My theory is that LLMs will get commoditized within the next year. The edge that OpenAI had over the competition is arguably lost. If the trend continues we will be looking at inference like commodity prices, where the most efficient like cerebras and groq will be the only ones actually making money at the end.

"My theory is that LLMs will get commoditized within the next year."

Incredibly bad theory, it's like you're saying every LLM is the same because they can all talk, even though the newer ones continue to smash through benchmarks the older ones couldn't. And now it happens quarterly instead of yearly, so you can't even say it's slowing down.

Re: OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August

#63
post #44
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that xAI only exists for Elon Musk's personal spite and they produced a top performing model certainly implies that model training isn't any kind of moat. It's certainly very expensive but not mysterious.

“Top performing model” Ie overfit to benchmarks.

source?

Re: OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August

#64

They can call it whatever they want…not sure that has a great deal of meaning unless there’s a GPT-4/Claude 3.5 level step change.

This is the smart take. The version numbers were useful going from GPT-3 to GPT-3.5 and then GPT-4, but after that OpenAI butchered the usefulness of the naming scheme, with stuff like o4 and 4-o. Version numbers now tell you almost nothing about the change.

This happened because training progressively larger models used to be the main path forward, which was easy to track and name, but currently it's all about quickly incorporating synthetic data chain-of-thoughts created by flash models.

Re: OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August

#65

OpenAI promises too much and delivers too little. It promised "Agent mode" and "Study and learn", but I have neither despite paying for the service. I get the impression that OpenAI will rename what's intended as o4 to gpt-5 and package it as such.

I will die on this hill. Nothing annoys me more than OpenAI acting like something is rolling out (or rolled out already) and then taking forever to do so. > ChatGPT agent starts rolling out today to Pro, Plus, and Team; Pro will get access by the end of day, while Plus and Team users will get access over the next few days. "Next few days" - It's 8 days later (so far). Lest one think "It's only 8 days, geez, calm down…

I feel like Altman is taking Elon's path. ChatGPT was his Tesla Model 3. Now he's in the overpromise/underdeliver phase, he's probably going to get himself into a "funding secured" moment soon enough, but he definitely hasn't started calling people "pedo" yet.

Re: OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August

#66

If it were any good I would assume there would be no need to hype it up. My theory is that LLMs will get commoditized within the next year. The edge that OpenAI had over the competition is arguably lost. If the trend continues we will be looking at inference like commodity prices, where the most efficient like cerebras and groq will be the only ones actually making money at the end.

Which year did Linux become the dominant desktop OS?

Re: OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August

#67

If it were any good I would assume there would be no need to hype it up. My theory is that LLMs will get commoditized within the next year. The edge that OpenAI had over the competition is arguably lost. If the trend continues we will be looking at inference like commodity prices, where the most efficient like cerebras and groq will be the only ones actually making money at the end.

>If it were any good I would assume there would be no need to hype it up.

If it were good, there would also be no need for their devs to tell people to temper their expectations, alas... [0]

[0] https://xcancel.com/alexwei_/status/1946477756738629827#m

Re: OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August

#68
post #57
post #11

What's the point of this article besides free propaganda? It seems to me like every other AI shop except for OpenAI and possibly Anthropic only gets mentioned once they actually release something.

When I had some mild success with my first startup in the UK, I got flooded by news organisations offering "premium publication content" --- basically pay us a big chunk of cash to write a positive article on your company. I was surprised at the number and calibre of orgs that came to me who would basically say anything I wanted for cash, this opened my eyes a lot and made me very suspicious of published media.

I don't think they're even getting paid for this one.

Re: OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August

#69

If it were any good I would assume there would be no need to hype it up. My theory is that LLMs will get commoditized within the next year. The edge that OpenAI had over the competition is arguably lost. If the trend continues we will be looking at inference like commodity prices, where the most efficient like cerebras and groq will be the only ones actually making money at the end.

They already are. I have been using Kimi k2. It is 90% as good as Sonnet and on Groq 3x faster and 1/5th the price.

That's an interesting name to choose. For second there, I thought GroK enabled third-party models.

Re: OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will die on this hill. Nothing annoys me more than OpenAI acting like something is rolling out (or rolled out already) and then taking forever to do so. > ChatGPT agent starts rolling out today to Pro, Plus, and Team; Pro will get access by the end of day, while Plus and Team users will get access over the next few days. "Next few days" - It's 8 days later (so far). Lest one think "It's only 8 days, geez, calm down…

I feel like Altman is taking Elon's path. ChatGPT was his Tesla Model 3. Now he's in the overpromise/underdeliver phase, he's probably going to get himself into a "funding secured" moment soon enough, but he definitely hasn't started calling people "pedo" yet.

Arguably he already did with the $40B round from Masayoshi Son, who essentially committed only $10B and the other $30B was conditional on OpenAI converting from a non profit by the end of the year, but now that possibility is in question because OpenAI and Microsoft can't agree on a deal (and Microsoft controls whether or not OpenAi converts to a for profit, and when).
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