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Starlink is currently experiencing a service outage

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Re: Starlink is currently experiencing a service outage

#241
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their space infra is all disposable. Its GUGD.

Each individual satellite, yes. But killing all of them at the same time, e.g. due to a bad software or configuration update, might be the end of the company.

yeah, that would be an interesting dillema. Lucky for us, they technically arn't designed to be anything but disposable, so they'll fall from the heavens eventually.

Re: Starlink is currently experiencing a service outage

#242

So, if (just spitballing here) Russia were to have wanted to take out Starlink in order to handicap Ukrainian operations, and they didn't want to do something as visible as actually taking out the satellites, what would be the most likely way for them to have done it? And how would we be able to check if that's what happened? No idea if this is plausible at all, just raising the question for anyone who knows more abo…

It's essentially impossible for anyone to disable the Starlink network by "taking out satellites" through physical means. There aren't enough anti satellite missiles in the world to make a dent, it would cost trillions to manufacture enough, and SpaceX can launch satellites faster than anyone could manufacture interceptors anyway. And Kessler syndrome is impossible at the altitudes Starlink uses. Cyberattack is the o…

The anti-satellite devices could be deployed in the same manner as the Starlink satellites. And they wouldn't need communications equipment, so they could be lighter and cheaper to launch. And you really wouldn't need to take them all out, just enough to make communication unreliable.

Starlink launches reduce costs by launching a bunch of satellites with similar orbits on the same vehicle, replacing one or a few satellites is going to cost a lot more per satellite. So just disrupting the network is a lot cheaper than fixing it.

Thought the cheapest is still probably paying an existing employee to break some stuff.

Re: Starlink is currently experiencing a service outage

#243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> what would be the most likely way for them to have done it? Ensure Starlink hires an agent. Establish skills / access permissions. Push an update which bricks both the update system and the running system, so the satellites become useless.

They would exfiltrate any secret technology first, then do their best to burn the whole network. Potentially you could burn the constellation with reentry.

Is there any secret technology in Starlink that is not taught in Russian Universities and not described in Soviet scientific works?

Re: Starlink is currently experiencing a service outage

#244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're all the same satellites. It's actually impossible to have a satellite just orbit at the poles.

https://www.starlinkmap.org

Seems to prove GPs point?

There are satellites on a polar orbit, which will cover connections at the poles, but those satellites still cover a lot of non-polar ground.

If polar orbiting satellites are still working we'd expect to see intermittent or degraded connectivity away from the poles rather than complete outage?

Re: Starlink is currently experiencing a service outage

#246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> what would be the most likely way for them to have done it? Ensure Starlink hires an agent. Establish skills / access permissions. Push an update which bricks both the update system and the running system, so the satellites become useless.

They would exfiltrate any secret technology first, then do their best to burn the whole network. Potentially you could burn the constellation with reentry.

You'd need to have actual knowledge of the hardware systems and serious access to do anything interesting with thrusters. It may be possible. But just bricking the updates is likely way simpler and less protected.

Re: Starlink is currently experiencing a service outage

#250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's essentially impossible for anyone to disable the Starlink network by "taking out satellites" through physical means. There aren't enough anti satellite missiles in the world to make a dent, it would cost trillions to manufacture enough, and SpaceX can launch satellites faster than anyone could manufacture interceptors anyway. And Kessler syndrome is impossible at the altitudes Starlink uses. Cyberattack is the o…

The anti-satellite devices could be deployed in the same manner as the Starlink satellites. And they wouldn't need communications equipment, so they could be lighter and cheaper to launch. And you really wouldn't need to take them all out, just enough to make communication unreliable. Starlink launches reduce costs by launching a bunch of satellites with similar orbits on the same vehicle, replacing one or a few sate…

Taking out one or even a few dozen satellites isn't going to make communication unreliable. They can redistribute themselves to fill holes. You'd need to take out thousands, requiring hundreds of launches at least. And neither Russia nor China has reusable rockets, so the costs would be much higher than SpaceX's costs. The interceptors would take a long time to spread out to reach their targets if they were launched in groups like Starlink is, so it wouldn't be a surprise attack and SpaceX would have time to prepare. They would need to start launching on-orbit spares for each orbital shell, but there are only a few shells, not hundreds.

And in a few years when Starship is launching Starlink, the economics will be tilted even more wildly in SpaceX's favor.

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