Live data from Hacker News

AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

bloomberg.com

121–130 of 761 posts

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#121

A 5-20% markup on CPUs isn't the worst thing, but those still need a mobo to socket into and as far as I'm aware we still don't have much capability on the availability of boards. Are there any companies that are spinning up board production, or even just broader consumer electronics in general (arduinos, pis, general controllers and the like)?

Ajinomoto (Japanese company) is nearly the sole manufacturer of build up film need for CPU manufacturing (for about 30 years).

There's all kinds of stuff like this in supply chains. Low profit, high barrier to entry critical items.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#122
post #34

What I really want to know, from someone who does know: Is Intel cooked? Like, will they be able to manufacture chips that compete with TSMC? They used to be a crown-jewel of US tech. But it seems like every time I read the news, they are announcing a delay or shutting down some product.

I'm not into hardware but I remember when AMD was sneered at, and all real CPUs were Intel. Then Ryzen happened. My meta conclusion is that its super hard to tell when someone is done, and it can change quickly. Or not. Sometimes it if looks like terminal decline, it simply is terminal decline.

These things go in cycles and predate Ryzen by a lot. The late-model Pentium 4 chips were overheating power-guzzling garbage compared to the Athlon XP, and the Athlon 64 was a serious competitor to the Core 2 series. Ryzen is the current incarnation of AMD coming into vogue in desktop, but it's not like it took them 40 years to get there.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#123
post #44

This is why tariffs matter. Despite the US having much higher wages, and likely property and infrastructure costs, manufacturing is only 5-20% more for these high tech products. Corporations outsourced not because they couldn't compete, but because why leave 10% on the table when we can reward the executives with that cash instead of the labor?

These plants have nothing to do with tariffs though? They were in development prior to any tariffs and were partially funded by the CHIPS act. If anything, that’s the opposite of tariffs…

My point is, the cost of goods being produced in the US is not dramatically higher, as outlined in the article. Even very basic tariffs would level the playing field and bring economic benefits domestically, without a major impact to the consumer.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#124

This is why tariffs matter. Despite the US having much higher wages, and likely property and infrastructure costs, manufacturing is only 5-20% more for these high tech products. Corporations outsourced not because they couldn't compete, but because why leave 10% on the table when we can reward the executives with that cash instead of the labor?

Tariffs don't work to bring manufacturing back home if they change every 2 weeks and are sure to disappear in 4 years You need to have reasonable certainty that your factory is going to be profitable on a 20+ year horizon to commit into building a production line. I don't understand how MAGAs don't get that.

When Biden came into office, he kept MOST of Trump's tariffs on China and even added a bunch of his own.

Despite the marketing, the tariffs are fairly bi-partisan among the congress.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#125
post #10

The article doesn’t say, but I assume these are SOTA AI chips? If so, it’s a huge deal that American can build them. Another interesting point: > AMD and larger rival Nvidia Corp. recently gained a reprieve on restrictions imposed on shipments of some types of artificial intelligence accelerators to China. It’s still not clear how many licenses will be granted — or how long the companies will be allowed to ship the c…

> I wonder if they’re trying to get China “addicted” to western AI chips to hurt Chinese chip manufacturing development?

This has nothing to do with that. It was part of the deal made with China recently in Geneva. The U.S. needs what China has (rare metals), and China needs what the U.S. has (SOTA chips).

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#126

This is why tariffs matter. Despite the US having much higher wages, and likely property and infrastructure costs, manufacturing is only 5-20% more for these high tech products. Corporations outsourced not because they couldn't compete, but because why leave 10% on the table when we can reward the executives with that cash instead of the labor?

Tariffs don't work to bring manufacturing back home if they change every 2 weeks and are sure to disappear in 4 years You need to have reasonable certainty that your factory is going to be profitable on a 20+ year horizon to commit into building a production line. I don't understand how MAGAs don't get that.

"Tariffs won't work because we won't actually use them" is not an argument against tariffs, that's an argument against corporate control of the economic levers.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#127
post #24

5-20% more expensive? That's way cheaper than I expected. That's pretty good, especially for 4nm.

Even 5% more expensive means 80% of people buy the taiwan version for $475 instead of $500. 20% more expensive and 99.9% of people buy the $500 one instead of the $600 one. Never make the mistake of falling for people's virtue signalling and pay attention instead to how they actually apply those virtues (spoiler: saving money is the #1 acted upon virtue, being far stronger than any other).

That what tariffs are for. Increases the cost of the foreign good to parity with the domestic good (hopefully)

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#128
post #24

5-20% more expensive? That's way cheaper than I expected. That's pretty good, especially for 4nm.

Even 5% more expensive means 80% of people buy the taiwan version for $475 instead of $500. 20% more expensive and 99.9% of people buy the $500 one instead of the $600 one. Never make the mistake of falling for people's virtue signalling and pay attention instead to how they actually apply those virtues (spoiler: saving money is the #1 acted upon virtue, being far stronger than any other).

There's many fields where paying 10% extra on parts is more than worth it for shorter and more reliable supply chain. Not to mention probably better for the environment as well. The price for parts is often a small piece of the overall costs.

Seems other agree with me on that:

> And while many companies fear that moving their manufacturing to the U.S. would cost significantly more, some experts estimate that wafer production at the Arizona site is only about 10% more expensive compared to Taiwan. Despite that, the company says that its customers are willing to pay a higher price, with production already sold out until late 2027.

Also interesting that many of the new tariffs settle down to around 10%. That seems like a good balance for the US, and also similar to what European tariffs have been for many industries.

IMHO, the idea of entirely free trade is as dumb as excessive trade barriers. It's like trying to model people as purely rational agents. We're not. It's a decent starting point but we need perturbative models based on empirical information of human biases.

The ideal solution for tariffs is likely a distribution function with a peak around 5-15% with a steep drop off toward 0% and a longer tail for higher tariffs. Because 0% just leaves you open to any market manipulations of malicious foreign actors and corporations looking to offshore for a few cents of profits while higher tariffs lead to increasing protectionism and local companies becoming lax and inefficient.

That would just so happen to align well with these extra cost to manufacture in the USA in this instance.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#129
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ocean shipping is very very cheap. Less cost in money and energy to ship a chip across the ocean than for you to drive to best buy to buy the phone its in.

Significantly more pollution though, right?

It's many orders of magnitude more energy to fab a chip than to ship it across an ocean.

TSMC alone accounts for 12% of Taiwan's electricity demand, and growing fast:

https://spectrum.ieee.org/taiwan-semiconductor ("TSMC’s Energy Demand Drives Taiwan’s Geopolitical Future" (2024))

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not into hardware but I remember when AMD was sneered at, and all real CPUs were Intel. Then Ryzen happened. My meta conclusion is that its super hard to tell when someone is done, and it can change quickly. Or not. Sometimes it if looks like terminal decline, it simply is terminal decline.

These things go in cycles and predate Ryzen by a lot. The late-model Pentium 4 chips were overheating power-guzzling garbage compared to the Athlon XP, and the Athlon 64 was a serious competitor to the Core 2 series. Ryzen is the current incarnation of AMD coming into vogue in desktop, but it's not like it took them 40 years to get there.

AMD had been gradually working their way up for a long time - the K6-III was an excellent CPU for the time.
Post reply on HN