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What happens when housing prices go down?

clmarohn.substack.com

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Re: What happens when housing prices go down?

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you want the government to be the only landlord or does everyone get their own home from the government (if they can’t afford one)?

Or limit people to owning 1 or 2 homes. Does it make sense for one person to own 100 homes and rent them out? Think about the distinction that permanently creates for people who live in that community. Something like that only benefits the landlord class.

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Re: What happens when housing prices go down?

#152

Where i live, NIMBYs just killed an ADU ordinance and were screaming just as loudly and about all the same things they would have if you were replacing their grandma's cottage with a high rise. They can't be rationed with. Social housing is the only thing that will really work.

no, you just strip NIMBY's of their power. I frankly don't give a shit about grandma's opinion if the owner of the land wants to put a highrise there.

Why do you care whether it's a developer or the city building it, then

Re: What happens when housing prices go down?

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or limit people to owning 1 or 2 homes. Does it make sense for one person to own 100 homes and rent them out? Think about the distinction that permanently creates for people who live in that community. Something like that only benefits the landlord class.

What to do with the people who would rather rent than own?

Let them rent. There are many good reasons why someone would want to rent. Limiting the number of homes one can own spreads it out.

Re: What happens when housing prices go down?

#154
post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or limit people to owning 1 or 2 homes. Does it make sense for one person to own 100 homes and rent them out? Think about the distinction that permanently creates for people who live in that community. Something like that only benefits the landlord class.

[flagged]

Seriously? How?

Re: What happens when housing prices go down?

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "If “build more” was going to bring prices down and stabilize the system, we wouldn’t be seeing these mixed signals." Bringing prices down is usually a losing idea with existing asset holders. Even a financially strapped homeowner does not want the price of her/his home to go down. Politically, this is a complete non-starter. Also, appreciating home values serve as a very strong way to attract talent to a city. > "…

> Bringing prices down is usually a losing idea with existing asset holders Good. They should lose because they abused government policies through NIMBYism to inflate their assets prices. Happy to see them lose

This would be nearly every family in America. I'm not happy seeing my kids, my 80 year old mother lose money they are counting on. This is really the problem - reducing home prices hurts homeowners. And homeowners are litteraly everyone.

Re: What happens when housing prices go down?

#156
The usual solution to the paradox of lower home prices and the political need to not have home prices decline seriously is to tell people "a 70 mile commute is good for you". In the Bay Area that means Stockton, Gilroy, and the like.

At least we aren't in a situation like 2009 where people walk away from mortgages without making a single payment because they expected to be able to flip within weeks and had no cash at all.

Re: What happens when housing prices go down?

#157

Transpose the problem into a Taylor Swift concert and the problem becomes clearer: Everyone* wants to go see Taylor Swift. She comes to a stadium and the sell out is instant, the aftermarket is bloody and ruthless. The stadium has 90,000 seats, 2,000 floor spots, and they are gone before you can reload the ticket page. Taylor Swift is the embodiment of "good jobs". The stadium is the local housing market. Those VIP b…

I concluded long ago that the only solution to unaffordable housing is geographic diversification. You can only cram so many people into one city before costs spiral for a myriad of reasons. The root of today's housing unaffordability is geographic consolidation of opportunity into a handful of places.

There's a ton of affordable housing outside the top ten cities.

For the most expensive places I'd advise young people to consider going there temporarily to get your career started, but don't stay unless you are making serious money -- enough to offset real estate costs. E.g. for the Bay Area I'd say if you're not making over $350k/year by age 30 you should leave.

Re: What happens when housing prices go down?

#158

Where i live, NIMBYs just killed an ADU ordinance and were screaming just as loudly and about all the same things they would have if you were replacing their grandma's cottage with a high rise. They can't be rationed with. Social housing is the only thing that will really work.

Why can't we have luxury social housing?

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Re: What happens when housing prices go down?

#159
post #76

> Price Drops Don’t Lead to Supply. They Kill It. It really depends on how much you reduce costs. If you reduce costs enough, you can have increasing supply even in the face of falling prices. This argument sounds like one made by a hedge fund protecting its real estate investments. The reality is that the housing market in the US (and most countries) is heavily distorted by government NIMBY regulations. Because of t…

Price reduction against builder margins would be a more reasonable way to look at it than raw price change, and additionally factoring in the degree of financing vs cash and the cost of financing would possibly shed more light.

Stable firms, not out over their skis, can afford to entice buyers while still making a profit. Just like in a startup, the cost of money and the degree of leverage sets the [minimum] speed limit on the runway.

Re: What happens when housing prices go down?

#160

Ultimately, there is no solution in which the core groups will all be appeased: * If prices keep going up, then home ownership remains a luxury of the wealthy and an exploitation of the poor. Asset holders will be thrilled with returns, but the majority struggling to get or stay on the proverbial property ladder will grow increasingly angry at sky-high rents and prices with stagnant wages * On the other hand, if pric…

>Existing asset owners will be angry at losing (illusory/on-paper-only) money

I wouldn't be. I bought my house to live in it, not as a financial vehicle. I would be thrilled if prices came down and others in my generation could afford a house because I had the dumb luck of purchasing one in 2018 before the shit hit the fan. I couldn't even afford my own house now.

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