What happens when housing prices go down? • Hacker News Board

Re: What happens when housing prices go down?

#41

Post by philipallstar » Mon, Jul 21, 2025, 1:47 PM UTC

ta1243 wrote: post #27

andrewstuart wrote: post #9

There’s no such thing as “demand” in housing. Only supply. Housing has its own economics in which supply is the only solution ever put forward. Not a single politician or economist ever says that most dreaded and awful word “demand”. Property developers, politicians, economists, demographers, real estate agents, landlords all agree that supply supply supply will …….. errrr it will…… ummmmmm more supply will definitel…

Are you saying that people routinely buy 5 or 6 houses to live in (thus excess demand) Or are you saying the only reason houses are expensive is because people refuse to live in cars in high enough numbers? What do you mean by demand?

It's because it would mean looking at immigration numbers. If immigration creates far more demand than there is supply, as it does in various first world countries, then it makes house prices shoot up. But this is not a popular topic, as voters with houses don't care about their house prices going up, and voters without houses are generally younger and don't have the capacity to hear economic statements on immigration without auto-converting them into racial statements they've been warned about on CNN.

Re: What happens when housing prices go down?

#42

Post by sillystu04 » Mon, Jul 21, 2025, 1:47 PM UTC

andrewstuart wrote: post #17

We all know it’s just a big game of lies and charades in which the winners keep winning and control the message and the policies. Without renters there would be no housing Ponzi scheme, so gotta keep the renters renting.

> Without renters there would be no housing Ponzi scheme

If by "housing Ponzi scheme" you mean house prices increasing then this isn't necessarily true.

Even in a world where private renting was illegal and people were forced to choose between home ownership and homelessness, house prices could increase over time because of restricted supply, increased populated and wage growth.

Re: What happens when housing prices go down?

#43

Post by 9rx » Mon, Jul 21, 2025, 1:48 PM UTC

andrewstuart wrote: post #9

There’s no such thing as “demand” in housing. Only supply. Housing has its own economics in which supply is the only solution ever put forward. Not a single politician or economist ever says that most dreaded and awful word “demand”. Property developers, politicians, economists, demographers, real estate agents, landlords all agree that supply supply supply will …….. errrr it will…… ummmmmm more supply will definitel…

Demand isn't talked about because demand is solved by high prices.

But, politically, we want to increase demand (by offering lower prices).

Re: What happens when housing prices go down?

#44

Post by andrewstuart » Mon, Jul 21, 2025, 1:48 PM UTC

ragebol wrote: post #24

andrewstuart wrote: post #9

There’s no such thing as “demand” in housing. Only supply. Housing has its own economics in which supply is the only solution ever put forward. Not a single politician or economist ever says that most dreaded and awful word “demand”. Property developers, politicians, economists, demographers, real estate agents, landlords all agree that supply supply supply will …….. errrr it will…… ummmmmm more supply will definitel…

Demand can be affected by people living together, or encouraging that in some way. Be it having roommates, elderly parents living in, staying with ones parents longer, communes. None of them popular long term I think. Hence: supply

But not the rich, right?

The rich don’t need to cram more people in, everyone else does. True?

Re: What happens when housing prices go down?

#45

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Jul 21, 2025, 1:48 PM UTC

andrewstuart wrote: post #9

There’s no such thing as “demand” in housing. Only supply. Housing has its own economics in which supply is the only solution ever put forward. Not a single politician or economist ever says that most dreaded and awful word “demand”. Property developers, politicians, economists, demographers, real estate agents, landlords all agree that supply supply supply will …….. errrr it will…… ummmmmm more supply will definitel…

[deleted]

Re: What happens when housing prices go down?

#46

Post by throwaway98797 » Mon, Jul 21, 2025, 1:48 PM UTC

Apreche wrote: post #13

The problem can not be solved by trying to manage supply or demand. We must ban the concept of the landlord entirely. https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2024/mar/19/end-of-... A landlord gets a loan from a bank to develop a residential property. That loan is paid by the tenants who live in that property. At the end of the day, the landlord owns the property. This is fundamentally unjust. If the tenant paid off…

karl marx called he wants his argument back

Re: What happens when housing prices go down?

#47

Post by octopoc » Mon, Jul 21, 2025, 1:49 PM UTC

hollywood_court wrote: post #33

lenerdenator wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Detroit is a good example of what happens in the long term when investors and businesses flee the city Let's be honest: it's a good example of what happens when some guys with a lot of money find a cheaper place to make something. Same with St. Louis, Baltimore, Chicago, Cleveland, Buffalo, Camden, Gary, and so on.

Yep. They moved their operations to the south where they don’t have to worry about unions or those pesky worker’s right. I experienced this first hand when I worked for a Korean company that supplied parts to Hyundai and Kia. They sent line workers from Detroit to train people in Alabama. My coworkers in Alabama just could not believe the Detroit folks when they talked about how much money they earned. We were being…

Sounds like an improvement TBH. The quality of life improves for people in Alabama, and the company can pay people less. Sort of like the economic argument for offshoring people. The only people losing are the people in Detroit.

Re: What happens when housing prices go down?

#48

Post by Apreche » Mon, Jul 21, 2025, 1:49 PM UTC

andrewstuart wrote: post #9

There’s no such thing as “demand” in housing. Only supply. Housing has its own economics in which supply is the only solution ever put forward. Not a single politician or economist ever says that most dreaded and awful word “demand”. Property developers, politicians, economists, demographers, real estate agents, landlords all agree that supply supply supply will …….. errrr it will…… ummmmmm more supply will definitel…

Now if you want prices to go down, are you really going to do it by trying to decrease demand? What are you going to do, make your neighborhood a slum on purpose? Absolutely nobody is doing that.

No matter how nice a place people live, they always want it to be nicer. They want better schools, nicer parks, clean streets, quality infrastructure. They want to attract nice businesses and cultural institutions.

The problem is that doing this necessarily increases demand, and increases prices. Unless you are an owner, doing this risks pricing yourself out of your own home. So what can you do to keep rent down? Well, increase supply to match the increase in demand.

Now you have a new problem. Increased density puts pressure on the infrastructure and makes it a less-nice place to live. That park sure was a lot nicer when it was half as crowded. Those new restaurants sure were a lot nicer when you could actually get a reservation.

It’s a very difficult dance to keep all these things balanced. Ultimately everyone wants to make the place they live nicer, no matter how nice it is already. You can never try to manage this problem from the demand side unless you find a set of crazy people who love living in a sty.

Re: What happens when housing prices go down?

#49

Post by andsoitis » Mon, Jul 21, 2025, 1:49 PM UTC

_heimdall wrote: post #26

blitzar wrote: post #16

> What Happens When Housing Prices Go Down? Government bails homeowners out and prices go back up.

At least in the US, the government could care less about bailing out homeowners. Banks are another story, we'll bail them out all day but tax payers and homeowners are left holding the bag.

During the 2008 crisis, the primary focus of the government response was to stabilize the financial system, which was seen as necessary to prevent a deeper economic collapse.

Re: What happens when housing prices go down?

#50

Post by bryanlarsen » Mon, Jul 21, 2025, 1:49 PM UTC

billy99k wrote: post #2

"If “build more” was going to bring prices down and stabilize the system, we wouldn’t be seeing these mixed signals." Where have we seen anything close to 'build more'? Regulations in many major cities have prevented building more for decades and I haven't seen any loosening of these regulations (they were only increased during the Biden administration). "Prices are softening. Delinquencies are rising. Builders are w…

> Where have we seen anything close to 'build more'?

It's considerably easier to build in Canadian cities than most American cities. Not easy, but easier.

Over the past ten years Canadian cities have seen incredible growth, due to high immigration levels. Toronto is the fastest growing city in North America. Vancouver isn't far behind.

Yet Vancouver has seen flat housing prices over the last 10 years. [1] (Though flat at a very high level). Toronto housing prices are down 5% in the last 12 months.

1: https://realestatecoalharbour.com/blog/vancouver-house-price...

2: https://www.nesto.ca/home-buying/toronto-housing-market-outl...