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The rise of AI as a threat to the S&P 500 [pdf]

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Re: The rise of AI as a threat to the S&P 500 [pdf]

#71

Post by SoftTalker »

manmal wrote: post #57
bitmasher9 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most around content creation is eroding. We’re seeing many small AI videos become viral, and the length of some of them are reaching 5-10min. What happens when anyone can write a script and have a feature length movie or 12 episode season.

Vibing a movie will be possible, but people also won’t pay money for watching that. It will be great for script writers to be able to make an MVP of their movie first, and someone will still need to produce this into an actual movie.

Why would I pay money for a movie when I can just create my own from a few prompts, perhaps at the cost of watching a few ads?

Re: The rise of AI as a threat to the S&P 500 [pdf]

#72

Post by FirmwareBurner »

andsoitis wrote: post #62
FirmwareBurner wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Vibing a movie will be possible, people also won’t pay money for watching that Youtube, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok all beg to differ. AI slop farms are making bank over there, especially on short form content aimed at little kids. They get hundreds of millions of views, earning more than what Disney/WB makes on some of their high budget garbage movies in cinema.

> especially on short form content aimed at little kids. They get hundreds of millions of views, earning more than what Disney/WB makes on some high budget garbage movies in cinema. What is one specific example?

>What is one specific example?

Oh boy, I hope you're sitting down for this. Here's some people exposing this issue.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2B4_wFOSsuE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnK8VVUMuVs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9m653q-biPE

Re: The rise of AI as a threat to the S&P 500 [pdf]

#73

Post by snoman »

amelius wrote: post #52
kjkjadksj wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They already use models for trading better than any human and have probably done so since the 1950s. And what do you know, wealth accumulation has been significant over the last 70 years.

Yeah but wealth accumulation can only go so far, because at some point people will start to question the validity of the entire market.

With index funds effectively propping up the S&P etc. people are already questioning it.

Consider that millions of people are parking billions of dollars in index funds that just track the ~500 biggest companies with the expectation they’ll all just get bigger.

Re: The rise of AI as a threat to the S&P 500 [pdf]

#74

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

im3w1l wrote: post #54
amelius wrote: post #24

If AI can trade stocks and derivatives better than any humans, maybe we'll see wealth accumulation in a few large AI firms. And the stock market becomes effectively useless to the rest of us.

I think what will happen is that ordinary people will invest in a mutual fund managed by AI and/or the funds people already invest in will start adopting AI-tooling. I think this scenario is plausible because the path to this scenario is so smooth so it will be the default outcome unless something strange happens to prevent it.

I'm wondering what a market looks like where everyone is running an AI that makes the optimal purchases. The market needs bag holders.

I also don't know that it would change my behaviour. If my goal is long term investment success what's the downside of my continuing to invest in broad market funds? I don't need an AI making split second decisions if my investment horizon is still 30 years.

Re: The rise of AI as a threat to the S&P 500 [pdf]

#75

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

SoftTalker wrote: post #71
manmal wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vibing a movie will be possible, but people also won’t pay money for watching that. It will be great for script writers to be able to make an MVP of their movie first, and someone will still need to produce this into an actual movie.

Why would I pay money for a movie when I can just create my own from a few prompts, perhaps at the cost of watching a few ads?

You know, I can't see myself doing that with a movie. That would be the ultimate expression of the mindless action flick, and those have stopped appealing to me. I think about all the movies I've really enjoyed that had some friction in viewing - either because it was a genre I didn't normally like or I just didn't have any interest in viewing. All that would be gone.

But ooooh boy, would porn change. Maybe that would be the end of pornography, the perfect wish fulfillment making it no longer enjoyably.

Re: The rise of AI as a threat to the S&P 500 [pdf]

#76

Post by j-bos »

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #70
FirmwareBurner wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're a business trying to making money at all costs, and the money comes from advertisers instead of directly from viewers, will your wallet complain?

But it doesn't change the consumer's spending power. I haven't changed my movie consumption habit just because I watch youtube videos. It's free content.

Datapoint of one more: I have my fiction consumptions has been trending down ever since I got YT premium.

Re: The rise of AI as a threat to the S&P 500 [pdf]

#77

Post by smoothbenny »

is ai anything more than a shakedown at this point?

aside from a few very specific corporate backroom use cases, the pitch for the product currently sold as “ai” is loaded with vague, unclear benefits, marginal utility, and limited real world adoption.

then there’s another product, “ai risks”, many of which are easily identifiable to an average person (layoffs, deepfakes, calculated and miscalculated state violence without accountability), and to the c-suite cause fear and panic, resulting in massive overspending to mitigate these risks, most likely by investing in a “good” ai tool to counter the “bad” ai tool.

how long can the grift continue without any actual positive product to purchase?

Re: The rise of AI as a threat to the S&P 500 [pdf]

#78

Post by simonw »

curious_cat_163 wrote: post #39
simonw wrote: post #12

They used LLMs to look at the risk disclosures in recent 10-K filings, and found that 3/4 of S&P 500 companies mentioned additional AI risks compared tot heir own previous 10-K - AI-driven cyber attacks, deepfakes, energy demands, regulation (AI EU act) etc.

And, so what?

I was helping people out who need to know if the PDF was worth their time or not.

Re: The rise of AI as a threat to the S&P 500 [pdf]

#79

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

j-bos wrote: post #76
SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it doesn't change the consumer's spending power. I haven't changed my movie consumption habit just because I watch youtube videos. It's free content.

Datapoint of one more: I have my fiction consumptions has been trending down ever since I got YT premium.

Your fiction consumptions?

Re: The rise of AI as a threat to the S&P 500 [pdf]

#80

Post by FirmwareBurner »

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #70
FirmwareBurner wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're a business trying to making money at all costs, and the money comes from advertisers instead of directly from viewers, will your wallet complain?

But it doesn't change the consumer's spending power. I haven't changed my movie consumption habit just because I watch youtube videos. It's free content.

>But it doesn't change the consumer's spending power. I haven't changed my movie consumption habit just because I watch youtube videos.

I think you're misunderstanding. Consumers don't need to spend money directly, for AI slop farms on Youtube or TikTok to make money, since advertisers pay for the views they get on their videos, not you.

IT's not all about YOU, YOU are probably not the targe audience, but they do make money even if YOU don't watch that stuff.

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