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The rise of AI as a threat to the S&P 500 [pdf]

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Re: The rise of AI as a threat to the S&P 500 [pdf]

#51

If the contents of the PDF were any more vague, it could be replaced by whitespace.

To add to your comment: I think you could probably post an article with white space with a title "AI is going to kill [fill in the blank]" and it will at least initiate a discussion these days.

Re: The rise of AI as a threat to the S&P 500 [pdf]

#52
post #24

If AI can trade stocks and derivatives better than any humans, maybe we'll see wealth accumulation in a few large AI firms. And the stock market becomes effectively useless to the rest of us.

They already use models for trading better than any human and have probably done so since the 1950s. And what do you know, wealth accumulation has been significant over the last 70 years.

Yeah but wealth accumulation can only go so far, because at some point people will start to question the validity of the entire market.

Re: The rise of AI as a threat to the S&P 500 [pdf]

#53
post #24

If AI can trade stocks and derivatives better than any humans, maybe we'll see wealth accumulation in a few large AI firms. And the stock market becomes effectively useless to the rest of us.

RenTec did this successfully, but their strategies didn't scale up beyond ~$30B AUM before they started moving their markets too much (with the Medallion Fund).

Re: The rise of AI as a threat to the S&P 500 [pdf]

#54
post #24

If AI can trade stocks and derivatives better than any humans, maybe we'll see wealth accumulation in a few large AI firms. And the stock market becomes effectively useless to the rest of us.

I think what will happen is that ordinary people will invest in a mutual fund managed by AI and/or the funds people already invest in will start adopting AI-tooling.

I think this scenario is plausible because the path to this scenario is so smooth so it will be the default outcome unless something strange happens to prevent it.

Re: The rise of AI as a threat to the S&P 500 [pdf]

#55
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here are some S&P 500 companies that are doomed: - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Interpublic_Group_of_Compa... - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omnicom_Group - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warner_Bros._Discovery - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fox_Corporation - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_Global I'm sure there are a lot more.

Why do you think Warner Bros, Fox, and Paramount are doomed?

The most around content creation is eroding. We’re seeing many small AI videos become viral, and the length of some of them are reaching 5-10min.

What happens when anyone can write a script and have a feature length movie or 12 episode season.

Re: The rise of AI as a threat to the S&P 500 [pdf]

#56
post #12

They used LLMs to look at the risk disclosures in recent 10-K filings, and found that 3/4 of S&P 500 companies mentioned additional AI risks compared tot heir own previous 10-K - AI-driven cyber attacks, deepfakes, energy demands, regulation (AI EU act) etc.

It’s free to list AI as a risk in a 10K filing to the SEC. It’s a lot more expensive to pay out a securities fraud settlement if you don’t list it and then suffer a loss that can be pinned on ‘AI’.

It’s like all the stupid user license agreement stupidity.

I look forward to the eventual lawsuit against companies hiding their actual risks in the chaff. Do not use your groin to stop the chainsaw. (To any lawyers, this is the chaff).

Re: The rise of AI as a threat to the S&P 500 [pdf]

#57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you think Warner Bros, Fox, and Paramount are doomed?

The most around content creation is eroding. We’re seeing many small AI videos become viral, and the length of some of them are reaching 5-10min. What happens when anyone can write a script and have a feature length movie or 12 episode season.

Vibing a movie will be possible, but people also won’t pay money for watching that. It will be great for script writers to be able to make an MVP of their movie first, and someone will still need to produce this into an actual movie.

Re: The rise of AI as a threat to the S&P 500 [pdf]

#58
post #24

If AI can trade stocks and derivatives better than any humans, maybe we'll see wealth accumulation in a few large AI firms. And the stock market becomes effectively useless to the rest of us.

You do realize that all the math used in AI/ML has been heavily used in Finance for decades right? Everything is Applied Math if you squint hard enough. All this AI/ML doomerism and boosterism is ridiculous. If you do not understand how gradient descent works or why as of today GPUs are better suited for model training compared to CPUs you should not have a say in this discussion. Most conversations around AI/ML appe…

You can make this point without needing to insult everyone’s intelligence and gate-keep discussions about AI.

Re: The rise of AI as a threat to the S&P 500 [pdf]

#59
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most around content creation is eroding. We’re seeing many small AI videos become viral, and the length of some of them are reaching 5-10min. What happens when anyone can write a script and have a feature length movie or 12 episode season.

Vibing a movie will be possible, but people also won’t pay money for watching that. It will be great for script writers to be able to make an MVP of their movie first, and someone will still need to produce this into an actual movie.

>Vibing a movie will be possible, people also won’t pay money for watching that

Youtube, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok all beg to differ. AI slop farms are making bank over there, especially on short form content aimed at little kids. They get hundreds of millions of views, earning more than what Disney/WB makes on some of their high budget garbage movies in cinema.

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