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Predicting the “iPad Mini” internals

marco.org

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Re: Predicting the “iPad Mini” internals

#11

Post by jarek »

ghshephard wrote: post #10
mmanfrin wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is my number of submissions really indicative of anything? My comment was made because this was the second marco.org post I've seen today, and at least the 5th overall. That's a lot.

In general, people who don't put effort into posting interesting submissions, don't usually have the standing to make dismissive claims about other people's submissions, particularly with backhanded snark.

I read that as snark about people upvoting the submission and as a consequence placing it on the front page, not the submitter.

Re: Predicting the “iPad Mini” internals

#12

Post by ralfd »

mmanfrin wrote: post #6
bootload wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Marco views are insightful because he's the creator of 'Instapaper' ~ http://www.instapaper.com/ a pretty useful x-platform tool. Your comment is a bit snarky for a 1 submission, '140' day old account ~ http://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=mmanfrin

Is my number of submissions really indicative of anything? My comment was made because this was the second marco.org post I've seen today, and at least the 5th overall. That's a lot.

Well, I take five Marco posts over Techcrunch. Maybe a possible explanation: I subscribe to his feed but he hasn't comments on his blog, so when I see a hackernews submissions of Marcos posts I always click into it to read the comments here.

Re: Predicting the “iPad Mini” internals

#13

Post by jonknee »

> This is all speculation, of course, but I’m convinced: like the leaked Dock connector, this move is so ingenius that it’s most likely to be what Apple has really done.

Did I miss something? Why is the new Dock connector ingenius? It seems like a major pain in the ass (all new accessories, even really hard to change ones like those in cars).

Re: Predicting the “iPad Mini” internals

#14

Post by zach »

I like how Marco spins this, how he's just casually reviewing his logs at the end of the day, sees a couple of numbers out of place, spins through a Sherlockian series of deductions and has a sudden moment of clarity about Apple's hardware plans. And he's right, of course.

Re: Predicting the “iPad Mini” internals

#17

Post by rdl »

I agree with his hardware analysis, but IMO the big question is pricing.

If Apple prices an iPad Mini (wifi) at $299, there is still a reason for a person with no devices to consider a Nexus7 over an iPad Mini.

If the iPad Mini is $199 (or less), it probably kills the market for the Nexus 7 for device-naive users; Android people (or Apple haters) might still go with a Nexus 7, but in general the iTunes ecosystem is stronger, so it's better (on top of the hardware likely being better, if for no other reason than being newer rev -- and Apple Stores, better marketing, etc. would make it a slam dunk).

$249 iPad vs. $199 Nexus might be parity, but IMO it makes more sense for Apple to go $199 wifi and $249 and $299 products with more flash, 3G/LTE, etc.

The real risk is iPad Mini vs. iPad 3 sales cannibalization. I think there are enough women (who carry 7"-compatible purses) who would go for an iPad Mini at the same price as a regular iPad, so that would support pricing the iPad Mini at $299-399.

Re: Predicting the “iPad Mini” internals

#18

Post by fpgeek »

jonknee wrote: post #13

> This is all speculation, of course, but I’m convinced: like the leaked Dock connector, this move is so ingenius that it’s most likely to be what Apple has really done. Did I miss something? Why is the new Dock connector ingenius? It seems like a major pain in the ass (all new accessories, even really hard to change ones like those in cars).

This is where Marco talks about the new Dock connector: http://www.marco.org/2012/08/15/the-foolproof-dock-connector

Re: Predicting the “iPad Mini” internals

#19

Post by guelo »

rdl wrote: post #17

I agree with his hardware analysis, but IMO the big question is pricing. If Apple prices an iPad Mini (wifi) at $299, there is still a reason for a person with no devices to consider a Nexus7 over an iPad Mini. If the iPad Mini is $199 (or less), it probably kills the market for the Nexus 7 for device-naive users; Android people (or Apple haters) might still go with a Nexus 7, but in general the iTunes ecosystem is s…

You might be right, we'll have to see. Apple's marketing is strong. But at the same price I personally would go with the 1280 x 800 Nexus over a 1024 × 768 iPad mini.

Re: Predicting the “iPad Mini” internals

#20

Post by alabut »

rdl wrote: post #17

I agree with his hardware analysis, but IMO the big question is pricing. If Apple prices an iPad Mini (wifi) at $299, there is still a reason for a person with no devices to consider a Nexus7 over an iPad Mini. If the iPad Mini is $199 (or less), it probably kills the market for the Nexus 7 for device-naive users; Android people (or Apple haters) might still go with a Nexus 7, but in general the iTunes ecosystem is s…

Here's a graphical illustration of why it'll probably be priced lower than $299, whether at $249 or $199:

http://www.iamconcise.com/main/the-reason-for-the-ipad-mini....

Apple has an excellent track record of not leaving price umbrellas under their products (even if it means releasing something super minimal, like a Mac Mini or iPod shuffle) nor do they usually create multiple products at the same price that cannibalize each other.

The second rule isn't as strong because it isn't nearly as big a problem as price umbrellas. They've often said (correctly) that if anyone's going to cannibalize their products it might as well be them, e.g. iPod sales declining because of the iPhone taking off.

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