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What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

derekthompson.org

571–580 of 927 posts

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#571

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We live in a global society.

Maybe you do. Most of us live as humans do: in tribes, protective of our own space.

Well, it sounds you like you do have a problem, then.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#572

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can’t have billionaires with their own private space programs and 5 families with more wealth than 50% of America, and have a stable society. This is just the natural and obvious outcome of what we’re already dealing with. The fertility crisis is just our refusal to deal appropriately with the ultra rich and the collapse of our institutions.

I continue to need someone to ELI5 precisely why we shouldn’t kill those 5 families and redistribute their shit.

Who's we? If we had a consensus that they shouldn't be allowed to have that stuff it would be easy enough to vote it away from them without killing anyone. Seeing as we don't have a consensus, "we" are going to face a lot of opposition to the killing, let alone the redistribution.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#573

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an unusual take. People in the past made 4-10 babies per family and they did it by being celibate until marriage. Sex positivity and casual relationships were not normal, and grandparents encouraged marriage before sex, probably because the grandparents knew they’d be partially responsible for raising the kid and wanted to ensure two parents to help care for their grandchildren

That time period is so markedly different from ours, the comparison is useless.

While this may be true, it would be helpful if you would explain what the differences are and how they make the comparison useless.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#574
post #458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe it has something to do with the “you are not good enough” treadmill the modern world has everyone on. I don’t think people of yesteryear contemplated if they were ready to start a family. I don’t think they contemplated if a job was the “right fit”, and I doubt they scoured the world looking for their soulmate. So, if you live in our current time period where you are never “complete”, then you may have a hard t…

> Maybe it has something to do with the “you are not good enough” treadmill the modern world has everyone on. I don't think so. I think it's because A new couple can't support themselves when rent=1mo typical wages. It is impossible to pair off. Parenting time is up 20-fold from the 1950s. Was a few hours wk. Now it's ceaseless, 24/7 adulting. Childhood is effectively ruined due to - eradication of free ranging area…

What is the perfect amount of money and time for you? I suspect many things are not good enough for you and others.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#575

I see three big reasons why people aren't having kids: #1: Raising kids is really hard. They're expensive. They eed constant attention when they're young, and in modern American society they need to be in a bunch of activities once they're older. And all the various tasks of day-to-day life that don't disappear: work, food prep, cleaning. I spend virtually all my waking hours on work, chores, and childcare. Being abl…

There is also #4, there is plenty of women who don't want kids. Women having kids was not option until advent of modern birth control unless they were totally celibate. My wife has zero interest in having kids but enjoys being married, if this were 100 years ago, she likely would have kids by now.

This is almost 100% the answer, despite it pissing literally everyone off. I really feel like the only long term solution is getting artificial wombs figured out. Last I checked, we're closer than I thought, but people are still hung up on all the ethical questions that will probably evaporate when we realize it's the only way people are largely going to have kids at all.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#576

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People just figured out how to pull out?

Pulling out is not birth control. Good Lord.

The pullout method is behind the demographic free fall that began in the 19th century.

It’s absolutely capable of changing demography.

It’s not capable of providing consistent timing of pregnancies.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#577

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Saying it was a fluke discounts the hard work and sacrifice it took. It didn’t happen accidentally. It took raw will and courage to wrestle the social fabric into something more equitable. And without continued effort from those who came later it’s being unwound.

Hard work had little to do with it. A unique set of factors generated a historic economic boom that was briefly able to sustain a uniquely prosperous lifestyle for some Westerners. It came unwound because it was never sustainable.

It came unwound when we allowed mass immigration to destroy the wages of the lower end and stopped building to respond to the housing demand. That can be easily undone, if the powers to be allowed it.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#578

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't have to be an "extinction apologist" or whatever to think that we'll probably solve the problem before we go from 7 BILLION people to not enough humans for healthy genetic diversity. We've rescued animal species from extinction with populations of <100.

We’ve never come up with a way to correct this. No country has reversed course. That’s troubling. When it comes to animals - species that refuse to breed have a tendency to go extinct.

There are some cultures that have sustainable birthrates. Those cultures will become dominant over time and the problem will be solved.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#579
post #29

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Costs $2500-4000/mo for infant care where I am. On top of a $3000/mo mortgage. NE USA. When I see a family of 5 my first thought is "holy fuck they must be loaded." Either that or they have one parent who cannot be employed outside the home.

> Costs $2500-4000/mo for infant care where I am. That's what grandparents are for. Growing up my immediate family lived in the same neighborhood. My mother's parents lived two blocks away and walked over. My fathers parents lived ~15 minutes away. Everyone worked locally. Baby sitters were always named grandma :-) Now you have to move across the country for a lucrative tech job, leaving behind your support network.…

Which worked great when people had long retirements and were procreating early. Grandparents are working longer, older age when their children have children, and generally enjoying retirement more instead of grand parenting.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#580
post #539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Abortions are not the primary reason why teen pregnancy is way down. There's actual data, you know. Fewer teen pregnancies is a reason why birth rates in the US are declining. But it isn't driven by abortion. And it is insane to me that I'm now seeing this "oh actually teen pregnancy wasn't so bad" thing pop up all over the place.

> actually teen pregnancy wasn't so bad I mean, it was a thing for most of human history. There’s a reason biology makes you capable of having children at a young age. Isn’t it kinda bizarre that we think it’s weird?

>> actually teen pregnancy wasn't so bad

Except for the negatively impacting the ability to get the education needed for basic jobs.

> I mean, it was a thing for most of human history.

During most of human history there was a broad support system already in place.

For modern new parents, that experience extended support varies from mostly gone to totally gone.

Exasperating that: In markets with jobs, rents are 1mo typical wages.

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