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What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

derekthompson.org

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Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#321

Post by seatac76 »

socceroos wrote: post #312

I find the repeated comments of how much parenting 'sucks' and how much childbearing 'sucks' to be distasteful. It has been the single most incredible experience I've had (5 times over). I feel like, primarily, the reason why our society isn't having children is because of a growing selfishness and entitlement; which happens to be the very thing that Rome was suffering from when their society was collapsing too. No,…

Here in the US. I think for the young population there is a genuine affordability crisis, coupled with health insurance being so expensive it is a genuine blocker for a lot of people.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#322

Post by yieldcrv »

angmarsbane wrote: post #276
yieldcrv wrote: post #231

> between the mid-1930s and mid-1950s, the US maternal death rate fell by 94 percent that’s it so basically very few people - as in both partners - were consciously planning kids, they were just having sex, but the irresponsibility was curbed by nature, sanitation, as many of the resulting children died. of the people that were planning children, they also has to hedge with many dead children, but suddenly they were…

Do we still have sex? I keep seeing headlines that younger generations aren't having sex. My last relationship ended because my mid-30s male partner wasn't interested in sex.

many people have very active libidos, there is a burgeoning "consent culture" about being more upfront about talking about it so you find what you're looking for faster. removes the guess work and hoping the vibes turn out to be what you want.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#323

Post by itake »

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #293
itake wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some men are stepping up. but others aren't. Many women don't want to have kids because they can't find a qualified partner they feel will be a good dad and good husband.

They'll also reject this sort of man at the start of a relationship for being "too nice".

I don’t think “too nice” is correct, but I’ve definitely seen women pass on great guys that weren’t 6ft or good looking.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#324

Post by yen223 »

qmr wrote: post #175

Homer Simpson is a bumbling incompetent who manages to have a stable job, and can afford a mortgage, insurance for his family of 5, and two good enough cars as the sole breadwinner for his household. It's going to take something like that.

Homer Simpson is also a fictional cartoon character

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#325

Post by dan-robertson »

itake wrote: post #263
dan-robertson wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You say ‘modern relationships’ but I feel like you’re describing a stereotypical 1950s relationship in that paragraph. The lack of contrast surprises me.

in the 1950s, your choice for life partner is the 50 kids in your high school class. Women got married below the age of 25 and didn't have careers. Today, Tinder and Instagram gives you access to literally the entire planet of single people and the illusion that you have the chance to be with one.

I think I agree with you that though women could work in the ’50s, there weren’t really careers available to them in the same way as for men. Maybe it is just women having ‘real’ careers and therefore higher opportunity cost/more practical liberty/fulfilling alternatives to children making a big difference.

I guess what I’m getting at is that, even if you describe men’s desires accurately, I don’t think it describes their behaviour in my parents’ generation let alone mine. But maybe this just varies a lot by country/income/education/social class and I see some weird sample. I know divorce rates have become super divergent by education in the US for example so presumably relationships are quite different too.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#326

Post by twoodfin »

Yizahi wrote: post #122

War, duh. No, really, the only reason for that happening was a total war. War caused devastated countries to collectively sign Bretton-Woods which affirmed USD as a reference currency and allowed USA to externalize a lot of it's issue, both immediate and future. Allowing this externalization, plus major political influence in the first decades after the war, plus rapid innovation accelerated by the war allowed USA to…

TFA addresses this theory directly: The leap in fertility that became the baby boom started years before the war.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#327

Post by epicureanideal »

itake wrote: post #241
swagasaurus-rex wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Women can leave and get alimony, child support, and often times greater custody of the kids. Men don’t want to take that risk, so many men opt out of marriage as well.

Alimony is temporary and fixed, whereas careers are not only life-long, but have compounding growth. There is a significant financial gap between a divorced woman in her 50s with only five years of alimony remaining and a career woman in her 50s with a $400,000 401(k) balance.

You forgot to mention child support which is for up to 18 years. Also, nothing stops the woman from having a career, especially if she cooperatively shares 50/50 custody, but often they prefer aiming for nearly 100% custody because it increases their child support payments, and then still have the option to cry victim that they’re a single mother despite getting thousands of dollars a month and they’re actively preventing the father from being involved with the kids. Happens a lot.

As for a stay at home mom who doesn’t get divorced, she doesn’t need to be entirely stay at home for all 18 years.. kids go to school at 5 and can go to after school programs if necessary while she works. A couple years before that if the kids are in pre school she could get a degree or masters degree or work part time. So the career gap could be minimized.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#328

Post by slaw »

hraedon wrote: post #268
endtime wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In terms of incentives, Hungary has attempted this with tax policy: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary Seems to be working!

"Working" is a pretty generous description of a policy that, at a cost of 3-4% of GDP, has raised the fertility rate from its low of 1.23 in 2011 to about 1.55 today. That 1.5ish TFR is pretty stable, too: there's been almost no improvement since 2016. No country has figured this out, and if getting to (just!) replacement rate requires healthcare-like expenditures as a % of GDP, it is genuinely unclear to me how we d…

Neighbour countries are at 1.0x TFR, so that policy is quite effective.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#329

Post by globalnode »

itake wrote: post #212
triceratops wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In modern relationships, men just want to work and come home to a cooked meal and clean house As a man in a "modern relationship" I strenuously object to this. I mean yeah I want that (who wouldn't?), but I know I'm not going to get it because my partner has a job too so we have to help each other. Literally every one of my married male friends also regularly cooks and cleans.

Some men are stepping up. but others aren't. Many women don't want to have kids because they can't find a qualified partner they feel will be a good dad and good husband.

Yeah its all too hard, easier to just stay childless and be done with it.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#330

Post by apparent »

Highly recommend Family Unfriendly [1] to understand how societal expectations and structures discourage large families. For example, people tend to feel like they have to get their kids into Ivies or whatever, which means tons of extracurriculars (which cost time and money).

Even if you have no interest in having more kids, it's an interesting look at how we can parent differently and have happier families.

1: https://www.amazon.com/Family-Unfriendly-Culture-Raising-Har...

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