Earlier quoted context omitted.
We certainly can't have a stable society with a rapidly shrinking population.
Isn't that the main promise of AI and automation and whatnot?
No AI strips skills from people for easy and endless access for the rich.
What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?
131–140 of 927 posts
Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?
#132Earlier quoted context omitted.
> When I see a family of 5 my first thought is "holy fuck they must be loaded. This is an interesting divide between social media reality of children and the real world. Any parent will recognize that having 5 kids does not mean paying 5X the cost of infant daycare, which is obvious when you think about it. Infant daycare is expensive but it's also temporary. It's also fascinating that so many people assume daycare i…
> You can also hire a nanny. Yes, or just have your servants watch them. Most families in the US can't afford a nanny. Daycare is already stretching it. > It's also not the end of the world to take a couple years off work. It's a hurdle, but not the end of the road. Many people do it. Mostly women, and that helps keep the gender pay gap going.
> Most families in the US can't afford a nanny. Daycare is already stretching it.
Where are you at?
Nannies are cheaper than daycare starting at 1 kid and the cost becomes overwhelming in favor of a nanny when there's multiple kids. You can also have the nanny watch other kids in the neighborhood if you only have 1 kid.
Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?
#133Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?
#134War, duh. No, really, the only reason for that happening was a total war. War caused devastated countries to collectively sign Bretton-Woods which affirmed USD as a reference currency and allowed USA to externalize a lot of it's issue, both immediate and future. Allowing this externalization, plus major political influence in the first decades after the war, plus rapid innovation accelerated by the war allowed USA to…
Recent wars haven't been expensive enough: World War II was significantly more expensive for the U.S. than the Gulf War. The Gulf War cost roughly $60-$70 billion (in 1990s dollars). In contrast, World War II cost the U.S. over $4 trillion when adjusted for inflation to today's dollars.
Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?
#135War, sadly. Seems like some politicians are doing their best to arrange that
> War, sadly. The post Vietnam war economy implies this wasn't really true. Also our current post Afghanistan/Iraq war economy.
In the US at least, the end of the Vietnam war didn't have the same social attitude as the end of WWII.
For one thing, there wasn't really the same largely positive attitude of we're glad it's over but it was super important that we were there. There wasn't much of a hero's welcome for returning soldiers from Vietnam.
Not to be overly morose, but the casualty rates for US soldiers was much lower in Vietnam, so there was less of an urge to make a big family to make of for the loss of others.
Afghanistan/Iraq were even less so.
WWII was an amazing boost to the whole US economy, and there was a big post war boom, from reconstruction, and other things. That didn't really happen for Vietnam or Afghanistan/Iraq.
Now, if we have another total war, and come out on top, I would expect another baby boom. Even if we didn't come out on top, if post-war reconstruction enabled a good economy, we could still have a boom.
Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?
#136Earlier quoted context omitted.
The article (which you read, right?) is specifically about developed countries and cites examples like France with fertility rates below 2.1
France isn't all of humanity. France's population can decline without any major impact. Life goes on.
The total number of people living in the world does not matter to local areas that see themselves age rapidly and hollow out as young people leave and they become unable to support the generous welfare we give to the old.
Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?
#137(Purely anecdotally, my own and my peers experience) We’re seeing educated people waiting longer in life to have children. Fertility drops, assistance from older generations drops, the village has gone, nursery and care prices are ridiculously high, support from the government (UK) is a bit of a farce if you’re earning anything more than a living wage in cities, the opportunity cost of a parent putting a (more develo…
Costs $2500-4000/mo for infant care where I am. On top of a $3000/mo mortgage. NE USA. When I see a family of 5 my first thought is "holy fuck they must be loaded." Either that or they have one parent who cannot be employed outside the home.
If child care is that expensive, it's cheaper for one person to stay home, unless both parents have high paying jobs.
Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?
#138Single income family cost of living is the secret sauce.
Now we have a dual income trap that doesn't cover things. My poor CEO had to join a 3rd board of directors just to make ends meet
Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?
#139Earlier quoted context omitted.
> When I see a family of 5 my first thought is "holy fuck they must be loaded. This is an interesting divide between social media reality of children and the real world. Any parent will recognize that having 5 kids does not mean paying 5X the cost of infant daycare, which is obvious when you think about it. Infant daycare is expensive but it's also temporary. It's also fascinating that so many people assume daycare i…
> You can also hire a nanny. Yes, or just have your servants watch them. Most families in the US can't afford a nanny. Daycare is already stretching it. > It's also not the end of the world to take a couple years off work. It's a hurdle, but not the end of the road. Many people do it. Mostly women, and that helps keep the gender pay gap going.
Well, when millions of women started working in the 60s and 70s, do you think it decreased or increased salaries as a whole?
Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?
#140(Purely anecdotally, my own and my peers experience) We’re seeing educated people waiting longer in life to have children. Fertility drops, assistance from older generations drops, the village has gone, nursery and care prices are ridiculously high, support from the government (UK) is a bit of a farce if you’re earning anything more than a living wage in cities, the opportunity cost of a parent putting a (more develo…
Money is not the issue according to this from 4 days ago https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44529456 According to that the issue is culture. We, as a species, have effectively just changed into people who no longer want kids (on average). Changing culture is hard. Sure, every little economic reason might have been some small influence on that culture but fixing the monetary issues will not suddenly snap the culture…
"We gave 1000 lucky participants $3.50 and a used bubblegum wrapper to share between them, but it didn't measurably increase their marginal propensity to have kids at all! Clearly the root problem couldn't possibly have anything to due with economics!"
It's wild how quick and eager economists are to discard money as a driving factor when the solution could possibly involve more social spending. If this were about taking credit for success, they would be tripping over themselves to explain how economics drives the cultural factors, lol.