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LLM Inevitabilism

tomrenner.com

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Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#251

Post by ghostofbordiga »

tines wrote: post #75
godelski wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you told someone in 1950 that smartphones would dominate they wouldn't have a hard time believing you. Hell, they'd add it to sci-fi books and movies. That's because the utility of it is so clear. But if you told them about social media, I think the story would be different. Some would think it would be great, some would see it as dystopian, but neither would be right. We don't have to imagine, though. All three o…

> Some would think it would be great, some would see it as dystopian, but neither would be right. No, the people saying it’s dystopian would be correct by objective measure. Bombs are nothing next to Facebook and TikTok.

You really think that Hiroshima would have been worse if instead of dropping the bomb the USA somehow got people addicted to social media ?

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#252

Post by cmrx64 »

mg wrote: post #70

In the 90s a friend told me about the internet. And that he knows someone who is in a university and has access to it and can show us. An hour later, we were sitting in front of a computer in that university and watched his friend surfing the web. Clicking on links, receiving pages of text. Faster than one could read. In a nice layout. Even with images. And links to other pages. We were shocked. No printing, no shipp…

I get great results having converged on similar patterns. You really can just toss entire dependencies into the LLM.

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#253

Post by lmm »

killerstorm wrote: post #197
sircastor wrote: post #172

The hardest part about inevitablism here is that the people who are making the argument this is inevitable are the same people who are the people who are shoveling hundreds of millions of dollars into it. Into the development, the use, the advertisement. The foxes are building doors into the hen houses and saying there’s nothing to be done, foxes are going to get in so we might as well make it something that works fo…

"put your money where your mouth is" is generally a good thing.

"Talking your book" is seen as a bad thing, especially when not properly disclosed.

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#254

Post by Karrot_Kream »

clarinificator wrote: post #202
eric-burel wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Developers haven't even started extracting the value of LLMs with agent architectures yet. Using an LLM UI like open ai is like we just figured fire and you use it to warm you hands (still impressive when you think about it, but not worth the burns), while LLM development is about building car engines (here is you return on investment).

Every booster argument is like this one. $trite_analogy triumphant smile

[flagged]

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#255

Post by stillpointlab »

AndyKelley wrote: post #213
mg wrote: post #70

In the 90s a friend told me about the internet. And that he knows someone who is in a university and has access to it and can show us. An hour later, we were sitting in front of a computer in that university and watched his friend surfing the web. Clicking on links, receiving pages of text. Faster than one could read. In a nice layout. Even with images. And links to other pages. We were shocked. No printing, no shipp…

You speak with a passive voice, as if the future is something that happens to you, rather than something that you participate in.

There is an old cliché about stopping the tide coming in. I mean, yeah you can get out there and participate in trying to stop it.

This isn't about fatalism or even pessimism. The tide coming in isn't good or bad. It's more like the refrain from Game of Thrones: Winter is coming. You prepare for it. Your time might be better served finding shelter and warm clothing rather than engaging in a futile attempt to prevent it.

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#256

Post by bambax »

mg wrote: post #70

In the 90s a friend told me about the internet. And that he knows someone who is in a university and has access to it and can show us. An hour later, we were sitting in front of a computer in that university and watched his friend surfing the web. Clicking on links, receiving pages of text. Faster than one could read. In a nice layout. Even with images. And links to other pages. We were shocked. No printing, no shipp…

The problem with LLM is when they're used for creativity or for thinking.

Just because LLMs are indeed useful in some (even many!) context, including coding, esp. to either get something started, or, like in your example, to transcode an existing code base to another platform, doesn't mean they will change everything.

It doesn't mean “AI is the new electricity.” (actual quote from Andrew Ng in the post).

More like AI is the new VBA. Same promise: everyone can code! Comparable excitement -- although the hype machine is orders of magnitude more efficient today than it was then.

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#257

Post by suddenlybananas »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #248
AndyKelley wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You speak with a passive voice, as if the future is something that happens to you, rather than something that you participate in.

They are not wrong. The market, meant in a general sense, is stronger than any individual or groups of people. LLMs are here, and already demonstrate enough productive value to make them in high demand for objective reasons (vs. just as a speculation vehicle). They're not going away, nor is larger GenAI. It would take a collapse of technological civilization to turn the tide back now.

The market is a group of people.

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#258

Post by ygritte »

keiferski wrote: post #107

One of the negative consequences of the “modern secular age” is that many very intelligent, thoughtful people feel justified in brushing away millennia of philosophical and religious thought because they deem it outdated or no longer relevant. (The book A Secular Age is a great read on this, btw, I think I’ve recommended it here on HN at least half a dozen times.) And so a result of this is that they fail to notice t…

> the actor has changed from God to technology

Agreed. You could say that technology has become a god to those people.

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#259

Post by Jensson »

zulban wrote: post #12
NBJack wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ironically, this is exactly the technique for arguing that the blog mentions. Remember the revolutionary, seemingly inevitable tech that was poised to rewrite how humans thought about transportation? The incredible amounts of hype, the secretive meetings disclosing the device, etc.? That turned out to be the self-balancing scooter known as a Segway?

> Remember ... No, I don't remember it like that. Do you have any serious sources from history showing that Segway hype is even remotely comparable to today's AI hype and the half a trillion a year the world is spending on it? You don't. I love the argument ad absurdum more than most but you've taken it a teensy bit too far.

> Do you have any serious sources from history showing that Segway hype is even remotely comparable to today's AI hype and the half a trillion a year the world is spending on it?

LLM are more useful than Segway, but it can still be overhyped because the hype is so much larger. So its comparable, as you say LLM is so much more hyped doesn't mean it can't be overhyped.

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#260

Post by fzeroracer »

mg wrote: post #70

In the 90s a friend told me about the internet. And that he knows someone who is in a university and has access to it and can show us. An hour later, we were sitting in front of a computer in that university and watched his friend surfing the web. Clicking on links, receiving pages of text. Faster than one could read. In a nice layout. Even with images. And links to other pages. We were shocked. No printing, no shipp…

History is filled with people arguing that [thing] is the future and it is inevitable. The future people envisioned with the internet in the 90s is not the future we live in now, and the future the current ruling class envision with AI is not the future you want to live in.
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