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LLM Inevitabilism

tomrenner.com

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Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#111
post #70

In the 90s a friend told me about the internet. And that he knows someone who is in a university and has access to it and can show us. An hour later, we were sitting in front of a computer in that university and watched his friend surfing the web. Clicking on links, receiving pages of text. Faster than one could read. In a nice layout. Even with images. And links to other pages. We were shocked. No printing, no shipp…

While the Internet and LLMs are huge turning points — the metaphor that comes to mind are phase change thresholds, from solid to gas, from gas to solids — there is a crucial difference between the internet and LLMs.

The early internet connected personal computing together. It built on technology that was democratizing.

LLMs appear to be democratizing, but it is not. The enshittification is proceeding much more rapidly. No one wants to be left behind on the land grab. Many of us remember the rise of the world wide web, and perhaps even personal computing that made the internet mainstream.

I am excited to hear the effort of the Swiss models being trained, though it is a step behind. I remember people talking about how fine tuning will accelerate advances out in the open, and that large companies such as Google can’t keep up with that. Perhaps.

I’ve been diving into history. The Industrial Revolution was a time of rapid progress when engines accelerated the development of cheaper access to fuels, more powerful engines. We were able to afford abundance for a middle class, but we also had enshittification then too.

While there is a _propensity_ for enshittification, I for one don’t see it as inevitable, and neither do I think an AI future is inevitable.

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#112
post #46

There may be an "LLM Winter" as people discover that LLMs can't be trusted to do anything. Look for frantic efforts by companies to offload responsibility for LLM mistakes onto consumers. We've got to have something that has solid "I don't know" and "I don't know how to do this" outputs. We're starting to see reports of LLM usage having negative value for programmers, even though they think it's helping. Too much eff…

> Look for frantic efforts by companies to offload responsibility for LLM mistakes onto consumers.

Not just by companies. We see this from enthusiastic consumers as well, on this very forum. Or it might just be astroturfing, it's hard to tell.

The mantra is that in order to extract value from LLMs, the user must have a certain level of knowledge and skill of how to use them. "Prompt engineering", now reframed as "context engineering", has become this practice that separates anyone who feels these tools are wasting their time more than they're helping, and those who feel that it's making them many times more productive. The tools themselves are never the issue. Clearly it's the user who lacks skill.

This narrative permeates blog posts and discussion forums. It was recently reinforced by a misinterpretation of a METR study.

To be clear: using any tool to its full potential does require a certain skill level. What I'm objecting to is the blanket statement that people who don't find LLMs to be a net benefit to their workflow lack the skills to do so. This is insulting to smart and capable engineers with many years of experience working with software. LLMs are not this alien technology that require a degree to use correctly. Understanding how they work, feeding them the right context, and being familiar with the related tools and concepts, does not require an engineering specialization. Anyone claiming it does is trying to sell you something; either LLMs themselves, or the idea that they're more capable than those criticizing this technology.

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#113
post #2

If in 2009 you claimed that the dominance of the smartphone was inevitable, it would have been because you were using one and understood its power, not because you were reframing away our free choice for some agenda. In 2025 I don't think you can really be taking advantage of AI to do real work and still see its mass adaptation as evitable. It's coming faster and harder than any tech in history. As scary as that is w…

Smartphones are different. People really wanted them since the relatively primitive Nokia Communicator.

"AI" was introduced as an impressive parlor trick. People like to play around, so it quickly got popular. Then companies started force-feeding it by integrating it into every existing product, including the gamification and bureaucratization of programming.

Most people except for the gamers and plagiarists don't want it. Games and programming fads can fall out of fashion very fast.

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#114
post #2

If in 2009 you claimed that the dominance of the smartphone was inevitable, it would have been because you were using one and understood its power, not because you were reframing away our free choice for some agenda. In 2025 I don't think you can really be taking advantage of AI to do real work and still see its mass adaptation as evitable. It's coming faster and harder than any tech in history. As scary as that is w…

If you claimed that AI was inevitable in the 80s and invested, or claimed people would be inevitably moving to VR 10 years ago - you would be shit out of luck. Zuck is still burning billions on it with nothing to show for it and a bad outlook. Even Apple tried it and hilariously missed the demand estimate. The only potential bailout for this tech is AR, but thats still years away from consumer market and widespread a…

None of the "failed" innovations you cited were even near the adoption rate of current LLMs.

As much as I don't like it, this is the actual difference. LLMs are already good enough to be a very useful and widely spread technology. They can become even better, but even if they don't there are plenty of use cases for them.

VR/AR, AI in the 80s and Tesla at the beginning were technology that someone believe could become widespread, but still weren't at all.

That's a big difference

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#115
post #5
post #2

If in 2009 you claimed that the dominance of the smartphone was inevitable, it would have been because you were using one and understood its power, not because you were reframing away our free choice for some agenda. In 2025 I don't think you can really be taking advantage of AI to do real work and still see its mass adaptation as evitable. It's coming faster and harder than any tech in history. As scary as that is w…

Ironically, this is exactly the technique for arguing that the blog mentions. Remember the revolutionary, seemingly inevitable tech that was poised to rewrite how humans thought about transportation? The incredible amounts of hype, the secretive meetings disclosing the device, etc.? That turned out to be the self-balancing scooter known as a Segway?

Trend vs single initiative. One company failed but overall personal electric transportation is booming is cities. AI is the future, but along the way many individual companies doing AI will fail. Cars are here to stay, but many individual car companies have and will fail, same for phones, everyone has a mobile phone, but nokia still failed…

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#117
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Hours of time saved Come back in a week and update us on how long you've spent debugging all the ways that the code was broken that you didn't notice in those 15 minutes. Usually I don't nitpick spelling, but "mimnutes" and "stylisitic" are somewhat ironic here - small correct-looking errors get glossed over by human quality-checkers, but can lead to genuine issues when parsed as code. A key difference between your…

Yeah, that sounds very much like the arguments parents gave to those of us who were kids when the web became a thing. "Cool walls of text. Shame you can't tell if any of that is true. You didn't put in work getting that information, and it's the work that matters." Except it's turns out it's not a problem in practice, and "the work" matters only in less than 1% of the cases, and even then, it's much easier done with…

> Except it's turns out it's not a problem in practice

Come on, this problem is now a US president

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#118
post #70

In the 90s a friend told me about the internet. And that he knows someone who is in a university and has access to it and can show us. An hour later, we were sitting in front of a computer in that university and watched his friend surfing the web. Clicking on links, receiving pages of text. Faster than one could read. In a nice layout. Even with images. And links to other pages. We were shocked. No printing, no shipp…

Oh man. Peak evolution

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#119
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ironically, this is exactly the technique for arguing that the blog mentions. Remember the revolutionary, seemingly inevitable tech that was poised to rewrite how humans thought about transportation? The incredible amounts of hype, the secretive meetings disclosing the device, etc.? That turned out to be the self-balancing scooter known as a Segway?

I remember the Segway hype well. And I think AI is to Segway as nuke is to wet firecracker.

> AI is to Segway as nuke is to wet firecracker

wet firecracker won’t kill you

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#120
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ironically, this is exactly the technique for arguing that the blog mentions. Remember the revolutionary, seemingly inevitable tech that was poised to rewrite how humans thought about transportation? The incredible amounts of hype, the secretive meetings disclosing the device, etc.? That turned out to be the self-balancing scooter known as a Segway?

> Remember the revolutionary, seemingly inevitable tech that was poised to rewrite how humans thought about transportation? The incredible amounts of hype, the secretive meetings disclosing the device, etc.? That turned out to be the self-balancing scooter known as a Segway? Counterpoint: That's how I feel about ebikes and escooters right now. Over the weekend, I needed to go to my parent's place for brunch. I put on…

Even for longer trips if your city has the infrastructure. I moved to the Netherlands a few years ago, that infrastructure makes all the difference.
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