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LLM Inevitabilism

tomrenner.com

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Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#51

Post by natrius »

mlsu wrote: post #6

I hate AI. I'm so sick of it. I read a story about 14 year olds that are adopting AI boyfriends. They spend 18 hours a day in conversation with chatbots. Their parents are worried because they are withdrawing from school and losing their friends. I hate second guessing emails that I've read, wondering if my colleagues are even talking to me or if they are using AI. I hate the idea that AI will replace my job. Even if…

If it's any consolation, living in Blade Runner will be optional! You'll also have the option of living in full-dive VR where it's permanently 1999. No AI in sight, just print outs of MapQuest directions.

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#52

Post by XenophileJKO »

afavour wrote: post #29
delichon wrote: post #2

If in 2009 you claimed that the dominance of the smartphone was inevitable, it would have been because you were using one and understood its power, not because you were reframing away our free choice for some agenda. In 2025 I don't think you can really be taking advantage of AI to do real work and still see its mass adaptation as evitable. It's coming faster and harder than any tech in history. As scary as that is w…

Feels somewhat like a self fulfilling prophecy though. Big tech companies jam “AI” in every product crevice they can find… “see how widely it’s used? It’s inevitable!” I agree that AI is inevitable. But there’s such a level of groupthink about it at the moment that everything is manifested as an agentic text box. I’m looking forward to discovering what comes after everyone moves on from that.

We haven't even barely extracted the value from the current generation of SOTA models. I would estimate less then 0.1% of the possible economic benefit is currently extracted, even if the tech effectively stood still.

That is what I find so wild about the current conversation and debate. I have claude code toiling away building my personal organization software right now that uses LLMs to take unstructured input and create my personal plans/project/tasks/etc.

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#54

Post by seydor »

delichon wrote: post #2

If in 2009 you claimed that the dominance of the smartphone was inevitable, it would have been because you were using one and understood its power, not because you were reframing away our free choice for some agenda. In 2025 I don't think you can really be taking advantage of AI to do real work and still see its mass adaptation as evitable. It's coming faster and harder than any tech in history. As scary as that is w…

they said the same about VR glasses, about cryptocurrency ...

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#56

Post by [deleted] »

NBJack wrote: post #5
delichon wrote: post #2

If in 2009 you claimed that the dominance of the smartphone was inevitable, it would have been because you were using one and understood its power, not because you were reframing away our free choice for some agenda. In 2025 I don't think you can really be taking advantage of AI to do real work and still see its mass adaptation as evitable. It's coming faster and harder than any tech in history. As scary as that is w…

Ironically, this is exactly the technique for arguing that the blog mentions. Remember the revolutionary, seemingly inevitable tech that was poised to rewrite how humans thought about transportation? The incredible amounts of hype, the secretive meetings disclosing the device, etc.? That turned out to be the self-balancing scooter known as a Segway?

[deleted]

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#57

Post by mbgerring »

Sabinus wrote: post #44
sampl3username wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm just hoping for a huge solar flare to reset this once and for all.

Billions will die from starvation and conflict in that future. Be careful what you wish for.

Billions will die from starvation and conflict in a world where we deploy trillions of dollars to increase electricity usage for AI data centers but nowhere near the same amount of capital to decarbonize electricity production, which we can already do with existing technology. This is the world we live in now.

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#58

Post by _carbyau_ »

dilawar wrote: post #23
HPsquared wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just remember that machines already do most of the work. Nobody ploughs fields anymore.

Those machines unlocked more work, different work, that led to better paying jobs! I am all up for AI if it leads to "better" work and jobs but cutting jobs to cut cost sound like a race to bottom!! Are AI time /cost savings going to help me pursue creative hobbies, open source, help my community without worrying about livelihood then great. If it is a means to make rich people richer by making most of us worse off,…

Do we have reasons why AI won't do the same "unlocked more work, different work, that led to better paying jobs" ?

One of the issues with [a change] is that some like it and some don't - but is there any reason to believe that society will get worse as a result?

My only real concern is meritocracy. It is hard enough already, but now rich kids can literally buy intelligence?

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#59

Post by DonHopkins »

HPsquared wrote: post #8
NBJack wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ironically, this is exactly the technique for arguing that the blog mentions. Remember the revolutionary, seemingly inevitable tech that was poised to rewrite how humans thought about transportation? The incredible amounts of hype, the secretive meetings disclosing the device, etc.? That turned out to be the self-balancing scooter known as a Segway?

1. The Segway had very low market penetration but a lot of PR. LLMs and diffusion models have had massive organic growth. 2. Segways were just ahead of their time: portable lithium-ion powered urban personal transportation is getting pretty big now.

That's funny, I remember seeing "IT" penetrate Mr. Garrison.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SK362RLHXGY

Hey, it still beats what you go through at the airports.

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#60

Post by totallykvothe »

mlsu wrote: post #35
HPsquared wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just remember that machines already do most of the work. Nobody ploughs fields anymore.

Yes, of course. What is AI freeing us of? Communicating with other human beings? Ah what a chore. Other human beings. Wish I could just enter into a cocoon of solitude for the rest of my life. I mean I'm kind of being glib here but the ~amazing future~ we all seem to take as inevitable has me playing solo orchestra conductor, prompt pupettering a massive fleet of hyper intelligent code bots, prompting an AI to make p…

I've never agreed with an HN comment so hard as this one.
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