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Bitcoin passes $120k milestone as US Congress readies for 'crypto week'

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Re: Bitcoin passes $120k milestone as US Congress readies for 'crypto week'

#61

Post by webdevver »

pcdoodle wrote: post #51
ArtTimeInvestor wrote: post #41

Reading through the comments here, it seems that most people on HN vastly underestimate the significance of the "store of value" use case. It is a core aspect of human life. And there is no other asset that does that with as little inflation and risk as Bitcoin. That seems counterintuitive because Bitcoin is portrayed as a very risky asset. Which it is in the short term. But long term, fiat, gold, equity, and real es…

Shhhh. they like the hamster wheel...

i actually used to like the hamster wheel. until i learned how much money people were making on crypto. now i dont like the hamster wheel...

crypto is a legit information hazard that threatens to completely demoralize the actually productive hamsters in the economy. if everyone knew they could've made more money in a year than their entire career, they'd give up working forever.

Re: Bitcoin passes $120k milestone as US Congress readies for 'crypto week'

#62

Post by cFyrute »

webdevver wrote: post #38
geocar wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I sold 100 BTC back in 2015, which cleared all my debts and landed my first apartment. I think you should be less proud of that. > I can't see the real value ... Sure, there are some very legit usage of crypto, like: Circumventing sanctions, Laundering money, Scams and transactions of illegal goods Sounds like you understand exactly what the "real value" is: If you buy and sell bitcoin, you're helping people launde…

i totally get this mindset i think one of the big challenges of the 21st century is coming to terms with the fact that playing by the rules actually makes you poorer... whereas speculative investment, like bitcoin, has yielded only winners. huge transfer of wealth from the rule-followers to the "but what if it moons..."-crowd and the "yeah i shouldn't do this, but..."-type of people. this will surely have an evolutio…

[dead]

Re: Bitcoin passes $120k milestone as US Congress readies for 'crypto week'

#63

Post by TrackerFF »

polivier wrote: post #47
TrackerFF wrote: post #3

I sold 100 BTC back in 2015, which cleared all my debts and landed my first apartment. But obviously in hindsight, it was the most expensive mistake I've made in my life. I started following cryptocurrencies back in 2012. Still, for my life, I can't see the real value. Back then, when things were starting out, the idea was to bank the unbanked, make money transfer seamless, cheap, and fast, and basically break up act…

I started looking into bitcoin when it was at around $3, but never made a move to buy any. I have some regrets, but when I stop to think about it, I would clearly have sold everything when it reached $10 or something. So I haven't passed up the opportunity to make millions, I only passed up the opportunity to make a couple hundred bucks.

When I was active, most people I knew (that were active in crypto) sold most of their stuff prior to 2015-2017.

It was almost a rite of passage to make your exit-post once you reached your goal, or didn’t want the risk/stress. For most that included things like purchasing a home, car, paying off student loans, retiring your parents.

Most of the people I know that became rich off crypto, were those that went all in around 16/17/18. And many of those did buy/sell their way up. Or got lucky with meme coins etc.

I don’t know anyone that bought 1000 BTC in the very early days, and just held onto them with diamond hands. Nor do I know anyone that DCA’ed from 2012 up until today.

(Not that they don’t exist, probably a bunch of them)

Re: Bitcoin passes $120k milestone as US Congress readies for 'crypto week'

#64

Post by FabHK »

pyman wrote: post #17

I'm interested in debating these facts: - 2.4 million bitcoins are lost forever [0]. Their owners, for one reason or another, can't access their wallets. No insurance, no guarantees, nothing. - 1.1 million are owned by a mysterious person who sits at the top of the pyramid [0]. - 2.3 million belong to investors and speculators [0] (who, I'm guessing, make money by pumping and dumping). - 1 million are owned by banks…

Agreed, by and large. Furthermore, Nakamoto wanted to disintermediate intermediaries.

Instead, now we have many centralised exchanges, centralised stablecoin issuers, centralised custodians, centralised miners, etc. So many additional intermediaries, providing so little value. Remarkable.

Re: Bitcoin passes $120k milestone as US Congress readies for 'crypto week'

#65

Post by throw0101b »

webdevver wrote: post #56
throw0101b wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And there is no other asset that does that with as little inflation and risk as Bitcoin. LOL. Having 30% drops is not 'little risk': * https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/19/bitcoin-btc-price-plunges-bu... Or 50%: * https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/bitcoin-whats-going... I want a 'store of value' to be fairly predictable, and even with inflation (generally 0-4%) fiat currencies have that (I can plan around that by…

true but then it always goes back up 100%... ...which is why its not gonna plunge anymore. too many people have "seen" the pattern now, and the instant it dips even 5% people are gonna be buying "the dip" in droves, thinking this is gonna be their entry, this is their moment in the sun. "I've seen it do this before, I know how it ends, I gotta get in now!!!"

> true but then it always goes back up 100%...

So far.

It took gold, another popular 'store of value' commodity, several decades to reach its previous peak originally reached in 1980 (blue line):

* https://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/11/07/CMD_GLDNFLT0711_VF...

There was ~20 years of it not doing much. Then ~10 years post-GFC of it not doing much. A lot of folks are looking at headlines and making long-term conclusions that certain things are inevitable:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recency_bias

> ...which is why its not gonna plunge anymore. too many people have "seen" the pattern now […]

And how many times has the 'stock market plunging pattern' have we seen? Does that prevent people from panicking? As someone who has been in /r/PersonalFinanceCanada for many years now, the panicked posts of March-April 2020 were very real.

There is an entire field of study examining how people act badly when it comes to money:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_economics

People still think they can pick winning stocks and beat the market consistently over the long-term:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Random_Walk_Down_Wall_Street

Re: Bitcoin passes $120k milestone as US Congress readies for 'crypto week'

#66

Post by TrackerFF »

RS-232 wrote: post #13
TrackerFF wrote: post #3

I sold 100 BTC back in 2015, which cleared all my debts and landed my first apartment. But obviously in hindsight, it was the most expensive mistake I've made in my life. I started following cryptocurrencies back in 2012. Still, for my life, I can't see the real value. Back then, when things were starting out, the idea was to bank the unbanked, make money transfer seamless, cheap, and fast, and basically break up act…

Thanks for sharing your story. I too frequently think back on "what could have been." Back in 2013, I bought and sold a bitcoin, and every time I see a crypto headline I remember my mistake of spending it. Maybe we should not be so hard on ourselves. Afterall, we still have a heartbeat. Did we truly make a mistake, or did we narrowly avoid getting consumed by avarice?

I take comfort in thinking that it wasn’t for early buyers/sellers, there wouldn’t really have been any traction.

And crypto today is extremely accessible and safe, compared to 10+ years ago. The first crypto I bought, was by paying some random seller on a forum with PayPal, and hoping that the deal was legit.

Re: Bitcoin passes $120k milestone as US Congress readies for 'crypto week'

#67

Post by sfmz »

pyman wrote: post #17

I'm interested in debating these facts: - 2.4 million bitcoins are lost forever [0]. Their owners, for one reason or another, can't access their wallets. No insurance, no guarantees, nothing. - 1.1 million are owned by a mysterious person who sits at the top of the pyramid [0]. - 2.3 million belong to investors and speculators [0] (who, I'm guessing, make money by pumping and dumping). - 1 million are owned by banks…

Your links ending in ... are broken.

Re: Bitcoin passes $120k milestone as US Congress readies for 'crypto week'

#68

Post by ArtTimeInvestor »

FabHK wrote: post #57
ArtTimeInvestor wrote: post #41

Reading through the comments here, it seems that most people on HN vastly underestimate the significance of the "store of value" use case. It is a core aspect of human life. And there is no other asset that does that with as little inflation and risk as Bitcoin. That seems counterintuitive because Bitcoin is portrayed as a very risky asset. Which it is in the short term. But long term, fiat, gold, equity, and real es…

Sorry, one cannot make statements about crypto "long term" yet. Nobody should hold large amounts of fiat long term. That's what shares and bonds are for, which incidentally also support productive enterprises (unlike crypto). Long term, equity, debt, gold have pretty good inflation and risk profiles. Real rates have overwhelmingly been positive, so government bonds are a fairly good store of value.

    Real rates have overwhelmingly been positive
That is what the government tells you. But I don't see that when I look up my real expenses.

When I look through my old bills, what I paid for apartments, hotels, coffee it seems the real inflation was around 8% over the last 20 years. For hotels for example, it is easy to look up the same hotel today and see how prices changed.

And bonds paid less than 4%.

Can you give an example of something that increased less than 4% in price annually?

Re: Bitcoin passes $120k milestone as US Congress readies for 'crypto week'

#69

Post by webdevver »

throw0101b wrote: post #65
webdevver wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

true but then it always goes back up 100%... ...which is why its not gonna plunge anymore. too many people have "seen" the pattern now, and the instant it dips even 5% people are gonna be buying "the dip" in droves, thinking this is gonna be their entry, this is their moment in the sun. "I've seen it do this before, I know how it ends, I gotta get in now!!!"

> true but then it always goes back up 100%... So far. It took gold, another popular 'store of value' commodity, several decades to reach its previous peak originally reached in 1980 (blue line): * https://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/11/07/CMD_GLDNFLT0711_VF... There was ~20 years of it not doing much. Then ~10 years post-GFC of it not doing much. A lot of folks are looking at headlines and making long-term conclusio…

thats true, but you say that - bitcoin maxis are probably hoping and praying that you're right, that there'll be a free-fall - just so they can buy even more of the damn things LOL

gosh what a clown world, this stuff is so ridiculous.

Re: Bitcoin passes $120k milestone as US Congress readies for 'crypto week'

#70

Post by webdevver »

FabHK wrote: post #58
webdevver wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

true but then it always goes back up 100%... ...which is why its not gonna plunge anymore. too many people have "seen" the pattern now, and the instant it dips even 5% people are gonna be buying "the dip" in droves, thinking this is gonna be their entry, this is their moment in the sun. "I've seen it do this before, I know how it ends, I gotta get in now!!!"

Indeed. And then at some point the sentiment will change. And at that point I hope the crypto and real world are not too intermingled, because it'll get ugly.

its probably intermingled at the highest levels that we couldn't know of. like transferring $100 millions to overseas 'freedom fighters', 'regime change operations', various suchlike endeavours with plausible deniability.

admittedly bit of a conspiracy but its not that far removed surely

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