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The upcoming GPT-3 moment for RL

mechanize.work

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Re: The upcoming GPT-3 moment for RL

#31
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but language models frequently outperform us in reasoning what 99% of the time their reasoning is laughable. Or even if their reasoning is on the right track, they often just ignore it in the final answer, and do the stupid thing anyway.

There are 2 kinds of people. Those who are outperformed on their most common tasks by LLMs and those who aren’t.

there are also two kinds of people - those who are excited by that and those who are not.

The result is a 2x2 matrix where several quadrants are deeply concerning to me.

Re: The upcoming GPT-3 moment for RL

#32
post #31
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are 2 kinds of people. Those who are outperformed on their most common tasks by LLMs and those who aren’t.

there are also two kinds of people - those who are excited by that and those who are not. The result is a 2x2 matrix where several quadrants are deeply concerning to me.

There are also two kinds of people - those who are objective enough to tell when it happens and those who will never even see when they’re outperformed because of their cognitive biases.

I give you a 2x2x2 matrix.

Re: The upcoming GPT-3 moment for RL

#33
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but language models frequently outperform us in reasoning what 99% of the time their reasoning is laughable. Or even if their reasoning is on the right track, they often just ignore it in the final answer, and do the stupid thing anyway.

The best part when a “thinking” model carefully thinks and then says something that is obviously illogical, when the model clearly has both the knowledge and context to know it’s wrong. And then you ask it to double check and you give it a tiny hint about how it’s wrong, and it profusely apologizes, compliments you on your wisdom, and then says something else dumb. I fully believe that LLMs encode enormous amounts of…

They key difference between that and humans, if course, is that most humans will double down on their error and insist that your correction is wrong, throwing a kitchen sink of appeals to authority, motte/bailey, and other rhetorical techniques at you.

Re: The upcoming GPT-3 moment for RL

#35
post #5

I’ve been exploring this too, since I rely on LLMs a lot to build software. I’ve noticed that our dev loop-writing, testing-is often mostly human-guided, but language models frequently outperform us in reasoning. If we plug in more automation; MCP tools controlling browsers, documentation readers, requirement analysers, we can make the cycle much more automated, with less human involvement. This article suggests scal…

> The main barrier is cost I very much disagree. For the larger, more sophisticated stuff that runs our world, it is not cost that prohibits wide and deep automation. It's deeply sophisticated and constrained requirements, highly complex existing behaviors that may or may not be able to change, systems of people who don't always hold the information needed, usually wildly out of date internal docs that describe the s…

"deeply sophisticated and constrained requirements"

Yes this resonates completely. I think many are forgetting the purpose of formal language and code was because natural language has such high ambiguity that it doesn't capture complex behavior

LLMs are great at interpolating between implicit and unsaid requirements but whether their interpolation matches your mental model is a dice throw

Re: The upcoming GPT-3 moment for RL

#36
post #7

with RL it's hard to define score function in many categories. rhis is especially visible in current coding capabilities. LLM will very often create sloppy solutions because they work well in RL. hardcoding API keys? ignoring errors? disabling lints? those pass in automated evaluation therefore are reinforced in training. are they good solutions? of course not. It's very hard to define (in way to create lints) what m…

> hardcoding API keys? ignoring errors? disabling lints?

These kind of "rookie mistakes" are not things that any modern LLM is likely to do. Indeed, I had to argue quite strongly with Gemini recently when I was learning a new tool (so basically just playing around with a fully local setup) and I hardcoded an API key then tried to commit it. The LLM did NOT like that! I had to carefully explain that this was a toy repo.

The argument against this (by Gemini) was that toy repos often grow into production tools so it's best to follow basic security rules from the start. Which, to be fair, is a good argument. I still committed the key though (and deleted the repo a day or so later).

Re: The upcoming GPT-3 moment for RL

#37
post #32
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

there are also two kinds of people - those who are excited by that and those who are not. The result is a 2x2 matrix where several quadrants are deeply concerning to me.

There are also two kinds of people - those who are objective enough to tell when it happens and those who will never even see when they’re outperformed because of their cognitive biases. I give you a 2x2x2 matrix.

I'm sure if we work hard enough we can add a meta-meta-cognition level. Cognition is just 2^n series of binary states right?

Re: The upcoming GPT-3 moment for RL

#38
> Simple command-line tools that implement obscure hashing and encryption algorithms are straightforward initial targets, but this approach can easily extend to more complex software, such as websites, professional software, and games.

>Each replication task consists of a detailed specification and a reference implementation. The central idea is that AI models are trained to produce an implementation that precisely matches the reference behavior.

I really don't see the connection from the statements in the article's content, and the assertion near the start that:

>Doing this effectively will produce RL models with strong few-shot, task-agnostic abilities capable of quickly adapting to entirely new tasks.

There's no clear reason outlined in the piece to describe why narrow & well-scoped 1-person-day tasks might scale up to 10,000-person-year projects. If they did, we should expect far more 10,000-person-year projects in the real economy, because the learning curve for firms scaling would be something approximating a straight line. There are very few 10,000-person-year projects, and very many 1-person-day projects.

It seems more like this will spend an unimaginable amount of compute, in order to produce models which are incredibly good at a very precise form of IP theft, and not especially good at any generalisable skills. It's so ludicrously rare that an engineer (or author, illustrator, etc) is tasked with "create a pixel-perfect reimplementation of this existing tool".

Re: The upcoming GPT-3 moment for RL

#39

> Simple command-line tools that implement obscure hashing and encryption algorithms are straightforward initial targets, but this approach can easily extend to more complex software, such as websites, professional software, and games. >Each replication task consists of a detailed specification and a reference implementation. The central idea is that AI models are trained to produce an implementation that precisely m…

> models which are incredibly good at a very precise form of IP theft

A smell big success? Copyright laundering is the killer app of AI this far.

Re: The upcoming GPT-3 moment for RL

#40
post #32
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

there are also two kinds of people - those who are excited by that and those who are not. The result is a 2x2 matrix where several quadrants are deeply concerning to me.

There are also two kinds of people - those who are objective enough to tell when it happens and those who will never even see when they’re outperformed because of their cognitive biases. I give you a 2x2x2 matrix.

Sure, but if a person can find an easier way to do their job, they’ll usually do it. Usually the bias is towards less energy expenditure.
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