Live data from Hacker News

AI coding tools can reduce productivity

secondthoughts.ai

251–260 of 284 posts

Re: AI coding tools can reduce productivity

#251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m confused as to why anyone would think this would be possible to determine. Like can we determine the productivity of doctors, lawyers, journalists, or pastry chefs? What job out there is so simple that we can meaningfully measure all the positive and negative effects of the worker as well as account for different conditions between workers. I could probably get behind the idea that you could measure productivity…

Yet paradoxically, the user knows instinctively. I know exactly when I'll get my next medical checkup, and when the test results will arrive. I know if a software app improves my work, and what it will cost to get a paid license. The hard thing is occupations where the quantity of effort is unrelated to the result due to the vast number of confounding factors.

Theres an interesting recent study showing how poorly developers measure their own productivity:

https://secondthoughts.ai/p/ai-coding-slowdown

HN discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44526912

Re: AI coding tools can reduce productivity

#252
post #210

I think the dichotomy you see with how positive people are about ai has almost entirely to do with the kind of questions they ask. That seems obvious, but a consequence of that is that people who are sceptical of ai (like me) only use it when they've exhausted other resources (like google). You ask very specific questions where not a lot of documentation is available and inevetably even o3 ends up being pretty useles…

> You ask very specific questions where not a lot of documentation is available and inevetably even o3 ends up being pretty useless. You have any example questions where o3 failed to be helpful? I use it pretty similarly to you, only resorting to it to unblock myself basically, otherwise I'm mostly the one doing the actual work, LLMs help with specific functions or specific blockers, or exploring new "spaces". But al…

I am personally somewhere in-between these two places. I've used ChatGPT to get unstuck a few times this past week because I was at the end of my rope with regards to some GPU crashes that I couldn't make heads or tails of. I then used it for less headache-inducing things and overall it's been an interesting experience.

For research I'm enjoying asking ChatGPT to annotate its responses with sources and reading those; in some cases I've found SIGGRAPH papers that I wouldn't have stumbled upon otherwise, and it's nice to get them all in a response.

ChatGPT (4o, if it's of any interest) is very knowledgeable about DirectX12 (which we switched to just this week) and I've gained tons of peripheral knowledge with regards to the things I've been battling with, but only one out of four times has it been able to actually diagnose directly what the issue was; three separate times it's been something it didn't really bring up or note in any meaningful regard. What helped was really just me writing about it, thinking about everything around it and for that it's been very helpful.

Realistically, if someone let an agent running on this stuff loose on our code base it would likely end up wasting days of time and still not fix the issue. Even worse, the results would have to be tested on a specific GPU to even trigger the issue to begin with.

It seems to me that fancy auto-complete is likely the best this would be able to do still, and I actually like it for that. I don't use LLM-assisted auto-complete anymore, but I used to use GitHub Copilot back in 2022 and it was more productive than my brief tests of agents.

If I were to regularly use LLMs for actual programmit it would most likely be just for tab-completion of "rest of expressions" or 1 line at a time, but probably with local LLMs.

Re: AI coding tools can reduce productivity

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish I could. Some problems are difficult to solve and I still need to pay the bills. So I work 8 hours a day (to get money to eat) and code another 4 hours at home at night. Weekends are both 10 hour days, and then rinse / repeat. Unfortunately some projects are just hard to do and until now, they were too hard to attempt to solve solo. But with AI assistance, I am literally moving mountains. The project may still…

I don't think you are understanding how big 10x and 20x are. It means you can replace a whole team of developers alone. I can believe that some tasks are speed up by 10x or even 20x, but I find very hard to believe it's the average of your productivity (maintaining good code quality)

20x0.1 is still just 2. You don't know what calrain's productivity without AI assistance is actually like. "20x" might just be correct, but it doesn't have to be 20x what you do.

(I don't think it's 20x, it's most likely hyperbole. People aren't that unique and it's not hard to see that people who use LLMs are often lulled into thinking they're more valuable to them than they actually are, especially when they "do more", i.e. they're a magic little person program that seems to do tasks on their own as opposed to glorified auto-complete that probably by raw numbers is actually more productive.)

Re: AI coding tools can reduce productivity

#254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> in two months what you would do in 4 years There should be a FOSS project explosion if those numbers were true by now. Commercial products too.

Claude Code was released 4 months ago, agebtic coding in general really came into being earlier this year. Maybe give it a minute?

We surely shouldn't need a whole minute, 3 seconds should suffice? ;)

Jokes aside, if 20x was on the table for any kind of meaningful work we wouldn't need to wait for much of anything, entire parts of industry would be invented and technically reworked by now. It's most likely ~1.25x for what is mostly trivial work that approaches 95% boilerplate and zero actual design work.

If you read calrain's posts the 20x number is taken from the "fact" that sometimes (not consistently or most of the time) something that was estimated at 2 weeks or 80 hours (who knows what it was and how that number came to be?) took 2 hours instead. That's not just some minor detail; it's just not a sound way of thinking about productivity increases.

Re: AI coding tools can reduce productivity

#255
post #131

As others probably have experienced, I can only add that I am doing coding now I would have kicked down the road if I did not have LLM assistance. Example: using LeafletJS — not hard, but I didn't want to have to search all over to figure out how to use it. Example: other web page development requiring dropping image files, complicated scrolling, split-views, etc. In short, there are projects I have put off in the pa…

> search all over to figure out how to use it. Leaflet doc is single page document with examples you can copy-paste. There is page navogation at the top. Also ctrl/cmd+f and keyword seems quicker than writing the prompt.

Nice. I'm afraid I simply assumed, like other "frameworks", it was going to entail wandering all over StackOverflow, etc.

Still, when I simply told Claude that I wanted the pins to group together when zoomed out — it immediately knew I meant "clustering" and added the proper import to the top of the HTML file ... got it done.

Re: AI coding tools can reduce productivity

#256

The article brushed aside devs being terrible at estimates, but I dunno. I'm a frontend guy, been using Claude Code for a couple of weeks now. It's been able to speed up some boilerplate, it's sped up a lot of "naming is hard" conversations I like to have (but my coworkers probably don't, lol), it's enabled me to do a lot more stuff in my most recent project. But for a task or two I suspect that it has slowed me down…

> But for a task or two I suspect that it has slowed me down

Likely more, as it takes longer for you to activate your brain when your first thought is to ask an LLM rather than solve it yourself. Its like people reaching for a calculator to do 4+5, that doesn't make you faster or more accurate.

Re: AI coding tools can reduce productivity

#257
post #233
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It isn’t ridiculous, it’s easily true, especially when you’re experienced in general, but have little to no knowledge of this particular big piece of tech, like say you’ve stopped doing frontend when jquery was all there was and you’re coming back. I’m doing things with react in hours I would have no business doing in weeks a couple years ago.

I am waiting to see your 4 year human-equivalent project in a couple of months. Words without actions are junk. You are asserting something you have no proof for. Proove it then. Amaze us all with your productivity, out in the open. Shred those pilled up open issues on open source projects and then give us a report of how fast-easy it. If it is "easily true" you'll be done by next month

I don’t need to prove to you something I experience daily, both professionally and in hobby side projects. You can take my anecdotes or you can keep believing me and people like me are wrong, your choice.

Re: AI coding tools can reduce productivity

#258
post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you measure 20x when someone says they do that? Does that mean you deliver the same amount of code in the same time with 20x less bugs? Or the same quality code in 20x less time? Or 10x less bugs in 2x less time?

An honest measurement tries to consider the aggregate , not one single point. If you had a hammer which could drive a nail through a plank 20x faster but took 60x longer to prepare before each strike, claiming 20x gains would be disingenuous.

The problem is that AI leads to extremely bimodal distribution of improvement.

Sometimes it doesn't help at all. Other times it spits out several hours of work in seconds.

It's like asking what is the weighted average of 1 and infinity? Even if you can quantify how many 1s and how many infinities there are, the answer is always going to be nonsensical.

Re: AI coding tools can reduce productivity

#259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're using it wrong -- it's intended to be a conversational experience. There are so many techniques you can utilize to improve the output while retaining the mental model of codebase. Respectfully, this is user error.

Can you say more than literally "you're using it wrong"? Otherwise this is a no true scotsman (super common when LLM advocates are touting their newfound productivity). Here are my prompts, lightly redacted: First prompt: ``` Build a new package at . Use the package at as an example. The new package should work like the package, but instead of receiving events over HTTP, it should receive events as JSON over a Google…

Yeah, that was a pretty lazy response on my part. Let me try again.

In my opinion, it takes several weeks of active use to nail down your preferred workflow with these tools and to get a meaningful understanding of their abilities and limitations.

I.e., yes they hallucinate and don't have great understanding of truth/fact (however you choose to define those terms), but you need to develop an intuition for how to work around those issues and how to recognize the problems in your setup that increase the likelihood of the LLM heading down false paths. This intuition cannot come until you fight through the initial struggle period.

In some ways, it's similar to picking up emacs/vim and learning the shortcuts. It's a negative to your velocity until it's not, and once you overcome that initial hurdle, your productivity takes off. Admittedly, it's not for everyone (I never bothered to learn the ins and outs of vim bindings because my bottleneck isn't my speed of writing code), but it provides a huge productivity boost for those types of engineers.

Coming back to my main point: your LLM needs quite a bit of guidance in the early stages, especially as you're feeling out what types of tasks it's able to knock out the park and what types of tasks it'll struggle with. For instance, in the example you gave here, I wonder what would happen if you asked it to present you a detailed plan before it gets to writing any code and to provide a list of assumptions it is making? You will need to do a bit of review with it before you let it go execute the plan (siilar to how a junior engineer would come to you with questions before being able to handle certain tasks).

I also recommend writing up a thorough self-review checklist that it stored in your repo (e.g. in an AGENTS.md file) that provides the customized instructions you want your LLM to follow (it won't always do so but it helps a ton). Otherwise, each new session is essentially starting over without it learning, which is pretty frustrating.

I'm happy to talk more because I'm pretty optimistic about LLMs and enjoy using them in my day-to-day where appropriate.

And finally, I'm not sure how much you've thought about giving them more autonomy, but I do recommend doing so if you have a safe, sandboxed environment. The real magic and productivity boost of LLMs come when you give them some more autonomy and provide them with tools to figure out the problems they encounter, unlocking your time to be spent on higher-leverage tasks such as designing systems and processes. If it can run linters, unit tests, and grep your codebase during its development process and use this to iterate, you'll have a much more fun time.

Does this help?

Re: AI coding tools can reduce productivity

#260
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same, I’ve done stuff that should have taken me 2-3 weeks in days

I’ve done this without AI. The thing was not as hard as I thought it would be.

Same, often a missing feature or library had become available since I last looked into a subject.
Post reply on HN