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Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

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Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#91

Post by triceratops »

drob518 wrote: post #55
phtrivier wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China seems to be taking the joke rather seriously [1] > The 277 GW of utility-scale solar capacity installed in China in 2024 alone is more than twice as much as the 121 GW of utility-scale solar capacity installed in the United States at the end of 2024. So they took all the solar installed in the USA since forever, and build it in a year. Twice. That being said, they're _also_ building everything else: * PWR nucle…

I’d also point out that China is teetering on the edge of a financial meltdown, having also built complete ghost cities, so some of these investments may not look very smart in just a few years. Don’t confuse investment with malinvestment, in other words. Throwing money at everything, much in direct opposition to market forces, has never really been shown to be a winning strategy.

> I’d also point out that China is teetering on the edge of a financial meltdown

This and the "OMG demographic collapse" sound like serious copium to me at this point.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#92

Post by maxglute »

drob518 wrote: post #55
phtrivier wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China seems to be taking the joke rather seriously [1] > The 277 GW of utility-scale solar capacity installed in China in 2024 alone is more than twice as much as the 121 GW of utility-scale solar capacity installed in the United States at the end of 2024. So they took all the solar installed in the USA since forever, and build it in a year. Twice. That being said, they're _also_ building everything else: * PWR nucle…

I’d also point out that China is teetering on the edge of a financial meltdown, having also built complete ghost cities, so some of these investments may not look very smart in just a few years. Don’t confuse investment with malinvestment, in other words. Throwing money at everything, much in direct opposition to market forces, has never really been shown to be a winning strategy.

Most of those "ghost cities" got populated in "just a few years", so much so that wiki had to change Chinese Ghost City entry into "Underoccupied Developements". And what is the scale of PRC "malinvestment", quantify or approximate it. Here's a hint, PRC RE+construction as % of GDP = ~15%, about OECD average. PRC just very good at building and gets much more from it, even if some sits idle first or ultimately gets wasted. AKA PRC barely throws more money that OECD in RE sector, they certainly have the option of throwing less money, but that only makes them more efficient relative to rest.

Entire construction + downstream industries is 30%, most of 15% redirected to renewable row out where solar already has better ROI than importing oil, aka, until PRC displaces another 10m barrels per day via renewables, or hits US per capita energy use (double current), any domestic power investment is positive. Throwing money at increasing cheaper power that makes manipulating atoms in every down stream sector is directly what market forces is ALWAYS driving towards. Increasing energy per capita is the only proven winning civilzational development strategy.

Don't confuse some malinvestments for retarded existential PRC collapse narrative. For reference US spending 18% GDP on health care, i.e. 2x OECD average of 9% is single handly more inefficient than likely ALL Chinese policies can misallocate, i.e. that 9% of excess US health spending that gets wasted by scribes can build entire PRC HSR network in like 5 months.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#93

Post by pydry »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #87
pydry wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the reasons I dont expect the australia storage model I cited to be wildly different to, say, Finland is that areas of the world which dont get a lot of sunlight tend to have a lot more wind and hydro potential per capita. I doubt there are any places in the world where some carbon free combination of solar, wind, hydro, pumped storage, batteries and syngas isnt economic.

Unfortunately, natgas has a large sunk cost advantage. If we were building from scratch in 2025, syngas for the last 2-10% would be competitive. But we have a lot of natgas infrastructure. Syngas's advantage is that it can be locally produced and stored. Natgas has to be shipped large distances, but we already have the infrastructure to do that.

Yeah, if you discount it being zero carbon, syngas is not cost competitive with natgas at all.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#94

Post by bryanlarsen »

pydry wrote: post #93
bryanlarsen wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately, natgas has a large sunk cost advantage. If we were building from scratch in 2025, syngas for the last 2-10% would be competitive. But we have a lot of natgas infrastructure. Syngas's advantage is that it can be locally produced and stored. Natgas has to be shipped large distances, but we already have the infrastructure to do that.

Yeah, if you discount it being zero carbon, syngas is not cost competitive with natgas at all.

https://terraformindustries.com/ is betting the cost crossover point is soon.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#95

Post by kccqzy »

ryukoposting wrote: post #83
kccqzy wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The demand for fossil fuel is continuous. The demand for solar panels is one-time: when you first install it.

That's blatantly false. The panels themselves are typically rated for a 25-year service life [1,2]. Inverters are typically rated for about a decade [3,4]. Solar panels also must be cleaned periodically [5], otherwise their output is reduced. It's a power plant. It will need maintenance. As PV technology improves, there's also pressure to buy better solar panels [6] to replace older, lower-performing panels, resultin…

That's a blatantly disingenuous argument that misses the point. Setting aside the accuracy of the 25-year figure, is it easier to buy solar panels once to use them for 25 years or stockpile 25 years' worth of fossil fuel?

I'm not arguing against maintenance items like cleaning, because obviously fossil fuel power plants need maintenance too. I'm directly responding to the perceived geopolitical risk. The question is: is it better for a country to experience a geopolitical risk with a solar-panel-producing nation or with an oil-producing nation? Bringing up items like cleaning is laughably irrelevant because where's the geopolitical risk in cleaning a solar panel?

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#96

Post by kccqzy »

drob518 wrote: post #55
phtrivier wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China seems to be taking the joke rather seriously [1] > The 277 GW of utility-scale solar capacity installed in China in 2024 alone is more than twice as much as the 121 GW of utility-scale solar capacity installed in the United States at the end of 2024. So they took all the solar installed in the USA since forever, and build it in a year. Twice. That being said, they're _also_ building everything else: * PWR nucle…

I’d also point out that China is teetering on the edge of a financial meltdown, having also built complete ghost cities, so some of these investments may not look very smart in just a few years. Don’t confuse investment with malinvestment, in other words. Throwing money at everything, much in direct opposition to market forces, has never really been shown to be a winning strategy.

Housing projects are handled by local governments in China, not the central government. What you're saying is as absurd as saying Detroit going bankrupt is hurting the credibility of Uncle Sam.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#97

Post by pcthrowaway »

ignoramous wrote: post #44
pcthrowaway wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Take the paywalled URL: https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-a-warming-planet/46... Add archive.is in front of it https://archive.is/https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-... If you get an nginx page (I seem to get one pretty often), you can try archive.today, archive.li, or any of the alternates in the URL section on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archive.today If the article has already been archived, you can…

> If you get an nginx page (I seem to get one pretty often) It appears to be a rate-limit mechanism of some sort specific to a fingerprint. Clearing cookies for archive.[is|vn|fo|md] may (or may not) get you past it.

I'm pretty sure it's IP-based because I get it on different devices from the same network when it happens.

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#98

Post by mensetmanusman »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #79
mensetmanusman wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whatever the number is in the west, China has on average ~ 10x the amount of subsidies than the west when it comes to manufacturing. Policy makers are trying to decide whether it’s too risky to shut down all manufacturing of heavy machine capable industries and hand it over to China.

China obviously does not subsidize $75,000 per car. European analysis resulted in an 18% offsetting duty, meaning Chinese subsidies are lower than American ones.

No it’s not focused on vehicles, that’s the average subsidy on manufacturing.

According to the treasury dept (and the EU): https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2455

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#99

Post by mensetmanusman »

hearsathought wrote: post #75
mensetmanusman wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whatever the number is in the west, China has on average ~ 10x the amount of subsidies than the west when it comes to manufacturing. Policy makers are trying to decide whether it’s too risky to shut down all manufacturing of heavy machine capable industries and hand it over to China.

> Whatever the number is in the west So you don't know what the number is? > China has on average ~ 10x the amount of subsidies than the west when it comes to manufacturing. And yet you just randomly decide to 10X it for china? Typical disingenuous anti-china nonsense. What's next? China spends 10X on defense compared to "the west"?

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2455

Re: Solar power has begun to transform the world’s energy system

#100

Post by Gigachad »

MisterTea wrote: post #81
notTooFarGone wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China bad when it's the only country that actually does something meaningful. Cheap batteries are fueling energy transition and the demand is only met by huge overproduction by china. China is actually carrying our lazy asses.

> China is actually carrying our lazy asses. Its not laziness, its corruption. The USA has a government that's tainted by moneyed interests who don't want their established gravy train derailed no matter how much it's fucking the entire planets environment. Now add to that, the current administration is too stupid and short sighted to ever incentivize change.

It’s a perfect example of overwhelming greed, corruption, and hate collapsing an empire.
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