Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It's so, so , so hard to walk the line between persistence (which leads to glory) and stubbornness (which leads to more time following already wasted time.) > Congratulations for walking this line correctly. As much as I like to agree with this message ... isn't there a big portion of luck involved here that makes the difference between the two sides of this line? In other words, aren't we seeing huge survivorship…
It's hugely about luck. We can look back on any success story and identify what made it successful (sometimes) but it only has a little predictive power. Success in startupping ultimately comes from either trying a lot of things (amplifying your luck until it approaches 100%) or survivorship bias when you get lucky on your first try and then write about how smart you are. It helps to have an idea of what might succee…
But it's not the only part. All the luck in the world won't win me an Olympic medal. Yes, luck plays a part. But it also takes the right work, learning the correct skills, having the discipline and so on.
Working on the right thing, at the right time, in the right way are all crucial ingredients. All the luck in the world though can't help you if you're playing the wrong game.