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Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026

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Re: Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026

#11
post #2

This will likely come with a one-time significant increase in inflation, at least based on other European countries. When Germany converted to the Euro, the conversion rate was (IIRC) about ~2 DM to the Euro but from what I recall, a lot of everyday things went from costing 7 DM to 7 euro, effectively doubling in price. IIRC France was similar (ie ~6.5 francs to the Euro but 10 Francs went to 3 euro, etc). I've tried…

> I've tried searching for any studies ... but from what I recall

I mean if you've tried to find evidence and can't, this feels a lot like you're simply misremembering?

Re: Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026

#12
post #3

Nice. It’s amazing to see the progress Bulgarians have made in the last 20 years after joining the EU. I can imagine it hasn’t been an easy process.

Two things that surprised me when I spent a couple of months in Bulgaria: * Bulgarian support for the EU is pretty low and people didn't think it made their life much better * Bulgarian support for Russia is very high, like 50%, probably due to their historic help in kicking out the Turks

Also the experience of Greece not too far back and the austerity imposed by Germany is not quite forgotten. Varoufakis[1] can attest to its severity. The Greeks voted against it but Germany imposed its will.

[1]https://jacobin.com/2025/07/yanis-varoufakis-on-the-legacy-o...

Re: Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026

#13
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two things that surprised me when I spent a couple of months in Bulgaria: * Bulgarian support for the EU is pretty low and people didn't think it made their life much better * Bulgarian support for Russia is very high, like 50%, probably due to their historic help in kicking out the Turks

Also the experience of Greece not too far back and the austerity imposed by Germany is not quite forgotten. Varoufakis[1] can attest to its severity. The Greeks voted against it but Germany imposed its will. [1] https://jacobin.com/2025/07/yanis-varoufakis-on-the-legacy-o...

And yet, Greece recovered to become a leading economy in the region. The propaganda is strong on the airwaves these days, just like in the US, one shouldn’t react to “facts” taken out of context.

It seems (from here), support for Russia is somehow magically going down as Russia’s economy is having trouble paying for its “support” abroad.

Re: Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026

#14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even though the Bulgarian lev has been pegged to the Euro for decades at this point?

Just as the Mark and the Franc were.

Surely they were not pegged for decades given that the Euro was introduced in 1998 and they transitioned fully in 2002?

Re: Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026

#15
post #13
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also the experience of Greece not too far back and the austerity imposed by Germany is not quite forgotten. Varoufakis[1] can attest to its severity. The Greeks voted against it but Germany imposed its will. [1] https://jacobin.com/2025/07/yanis-varoufakis-on-the-legacy-o...

And yet, Greece recovered to become a leading economy in the region. The propaganda is strong on the airwaves these days, just like in the US, one shouldn’t react to “facts” taken out of context. It seems (from here), support for Russia is somehow magically going down as Russia’s economy is having trouble paying for its “support” abroad.

In which region is Greece a leading economy?

Re: Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026

#16
post #13
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also the experience of Greece not too far back and the austerity imposed by Germany is not quite forgotten. Varoufakis[1] can attest to its severity. The Greeks voted against it but Germany imposed its will. [1] https://jacobin.com/2025/07/yanis-varoufakis-on-the-legacy-o...

And yet, Greece recovered to become a leading economy in the region. The propaganda is strong on the airwaves these days, just like in the US, one shouldn’t react to “facts” taken out of context. It seems (from here), support for Russia is somehow magically going down as Russia’s economy is having trouble paying for its “support” abroad.

> And yet, Greece recovered to become a leading economy in the region

I don't think that's true ... growth is good, but that's because there's a lot of catching up to do. If I remember correctly (and maybe I don't) then real GDP is still like -20% vs 2007, debt is EU-leading at like 150% of GDP, unemployment remains high, and wages remain low.

Re: Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026

#17
post #2

This will likely come with a one-time significant increase in inflation, at least based on other European countries. When Germany converted to the Euro, the conversion rate was (IIRC) about ~2 DM to the Euro but from what I recall, a lot of everyday things went from costing 7 DM to 7 euro, effectively doubling in price. IIRC France was similar (ie ~6.5 francs to the Euro but 10 Francs went to 3 euro, etc). I've tried…

Covid sort of showed everyone how hard it is to survive as a small economy in the modern highly interdependent world.

One small disruptor to a core component of a small economy and they are standing outside the IMF to survive.

There are currently 50-60 small countries that depend on borrowing from the IMF (that too in dollars paying interest in dollars - given competition levels guess what dollar generating capacities small economies have? They end up economic vassals of larger systems or selling off national assets or being used in geopolitical games).

On the other hand look at China and India. They have more provinces/states than the EU and larger populations. Vastly differently economies spanning all those subunits. Yet you wont find any of those subunits complaining about their central bank setting monetary policy.

Why? Cuz look at the surroundings - Sri Lanka/Pakistan/Myanmar/Bangladesh/Thailand/Indonesia/even South Korea all at one point or another requiring the IMF to step in and bail them out when they ran into trouble.

The world is too complex and fast/ever changing and small economies are increasingly dependent on larger economies to manage the unknowns and unpredictability that lie ahead. Its almost become impossible to survive by themselves. Sort of like running a book store in the era of Amazon.

Re: Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026

#18
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two things that surprised me when I spent a couple of months in Bulgaria: * Bulgarian support for the EU is pretty low and people didn't think it made their life much better * Bulgarian support for Russia is very high, like 50%, probably due to their historic help in kicking out the Turks

Also the experience of Greece not too far back and the austerity imposed by Germany is not quite forgotten. Varoufakis[1] can attest to its severity. The Greeks voted against it but Germany imposed its will. [1] https://jacobin.com/2025/07/yanis-varoufakis-on-the-legacy-o...

This is a very distant view for the reasons behind the crisis in Greece and for sure the government of 2015 was not a victim. In the context of this thread, Bulgarians as Greeks before them, enjoy the money from the EU but don’t like the responsibility that comes from it, to reform, to also contribute and that you lose the own currency perks while you gain on other fronts. Of course there is a lot more here to discuss but this is my experience being a Greek in Greece.

Re: Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026

#19
post #2

This will likely come with a one-time significant increase in inflation, at least based on other European countries. When Germany converted to the Euro, the conversion rate was (IIRC) about ~2 DM to the Euro but from what I recall, a lot of everyday things went from costing 7 DM to 7 euro, effectively doubling in price. IIRC France was similar (ie ~6.5 francs to the Euro but 10 Francs went to 3 euro, etc). I've tried…

Covid sort of showed everyone how hard it is to survive as a small economy in the modern highly interdependent world. One small disruptor to a core component of a small economy and they are standing outside the IMF to survive. There are currently 50-60 small countries that depend on borrowing from the IMF (that too in dollars paying interest in dollars - given competition levels guess what dollar generating capacitie…

> Yet you wont find any of those subunits complaining about their central bank setting monetary policy

I mean and also the US, but the key difference here is that those are also cohesive countries where wealth transfers between different areas is the norm. Much less problematic if a policy is better for New York than Alabama if you know for sure that the federal government is going to make sure Alabama doesn't get screwed.

In the EU you have the opposite problem: policies that benefit rich countries will result in the rich countries complaining about how they support the other economies and moralizing.

Re: Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026

#20
post #2

This will likely come with a one-time significant increase in inflation, at least based on other European countries. When Germany converted to the Euro, the conversion rate was (IIRC) about ~2 DM to the Euro but from what I recall, a lot of everyday things went from costing 7 DM to 7 euro, effectively doubling in price. IIRC France was similar (ie ~6.5 francs to the Euro but 10 Francs went to 3 euro, etc). I've tried…

I was in Belgium the week the Belgian franc converted to Euros. I saw no price changes other than rounding up or down to the nearest Euro equivalent price. If memory serves some stores showed prices in both denominations for a while which would not have allowed for stealth inflation to happen. The currencies were pegged for a period before then so other than niche cases there really weren’t opportunities for massive…

I’m Belgian. This is correct. Even now, some people here still convert euros to francs to get a grasp on the value.
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