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François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

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Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#41
post #4

I feel like I'm the only one who isn't convinced getting a high score on the ARC eval test means we have AGI. It's mostly about pattern matching (and some of it ambiguous even for humans what the actual true response aught to be). It's like how in humans there's lots of different 'types' of intelligence, and just overfitting on IQ tests doesn't in my mind convince me a person is actually that smart.

I've said this somewhere else, but we have the perfect test for AGI in the form of any open world game. Give the instructions to the AGI that it should finish the game and how to control it. Give the frames as input and wait. When I think of the latest Zelda games and especially how the Shrine chanllenges are desgined they especially feel like the perfect environement for an AGI test.

And if someone makes a machine that does all that and another person says

"That's not really AGI because xyz"

What then? The difficulty in coming up with a test for AGI is coming up with something that people will accept a passing grade as AGI.

In many respects I feel like all of the claims that models don't really understand or have internal representation or whatever tend to lean on nebulous or circular definitions of the properties in question. Trying to pin the arguments down usually end up with dualism and/or religion.

Doing what Chollet has done is infinitely better, if a person can easily do something and a model cannot then there is clearly something significant missing

It doesn't matter what the property is or what it is called. Such tests might even help us see what those properties are.

Anyone who wants to claim the fundamental inability of these models should be able to provide a task that it is clearly possible to tell when it has been succeeded, and to show that humans can do it (if that's the bar we are claiming can't be met). If they are right, then no future model should be able to solve that class of problems.

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#42
post #25
post #4

I feel like I'm the only one who isn't convinced getting a high score on the ARC eval test means we have AGI. It's mostly about pattern matching (and some of it ambiguous even for humans what the actual true response aught to be). It's like how in humans there's lots of different 'types' of intelligence, and just overfitting on IQ tests doesn't in my mind convince me a person is actually that smart.

You're not alone in this, no. My definition of AGI is the one I was brought up with, not an ever moving goal post (to the "easier" side). And no, I also don't buy that we are just stochastic parrots. But whatever. I've seen many hypes and if I don't die and the world doesn't go to shit, I'll see a few more in the next couple of decades

[deleted]

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#43

The Arc prize/benchmark is a terrible judge of whether we got to AGI. If we assume that humans have "general intelligence", we would assume all humans could ace Arc... but they can't. Try asking your average person, i.e. supermarket workers, gas station attendants etc to do the Arc puzzles, they will do poorly, especially on the newer ones, but AI has to do perfectly to prove they have general intelligence? (not tryi…

He said in the video that they tested regular people (uber driver, etc.) on arc-agi2 and at least 2 people were able to solve each task (an average of 9-10 people saw each task). Also this quote from the paper: None of the self-reported demographic factors recorded for all participants—including occupation, industry, technical experience, programming proficiency, mathematical background, puzzle-solving aptitude, and var- ious other measured attributes—demonstrated clear, statistically significant relationships with performance outcomes. This finding suggests that ARC-AGI-2 tasks assess general problem-solving capabilities rather than domain-specific knowledge or specialized skills acquired through particular professional or educational experiences.

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#44
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Today’s llms are fancy autocomplete but lack test time self learning or persistent drive. By contrast, an AGI would require: – A goal-generation mechanism (G) that can propose objectives without external prompts – A utility function (U) and policy π(a│s) enabling action selection and hierarchy formation over extended horizons – Stateful memory (M) + feedback integration to evaluate outcomes, revise plans, and execute…

I'd say we're not far off. Looking at the human side, it takes a while to actually learn something. If you've recently read something it remains in your "context window". You need to dream about it, to think about, to revisit and repeat until you actually learn it and "update your internal model". We need a mechanism for continuous weight updating. Goal-generation is pretty much covered by your body constantly drip-f…

> I'd say we're not far off.

How are we not far off? How can LLMs generate goals and based on what?

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#45
post #21

By both definitions of intelligence in the presentation we should be saying "how we got to AGI" in the past tense. We're already there. AI's can deal with situations they weren't prepared for in any sense that a human can. They might not do well, but they'll have a crack at it. We can trivially build systems that collect data and do a bit more offline training if that is what someone wants to see, but there doesn't r…

According to this presentation at least, ARC-AGI-2 shows that there is a big meaningful gap in fluid intelligence between normal non-genius humans and the best models currently, which seems to indicate we are not "already there".

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#46
post #4

I feel like I'm the only one who isn't convinced getting a high score on the ARC eval test means we have AGI. It's mostly about pattern matching (and some of it ambiguous even for humans what the actual true response aught to be). It's like how in humans there's lots of different 'types' of intelligence, and just overfitting on IQ tests doesn't in my mind convince me a person is actually that smart.

[dead]

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#47

The Arc prize/benchmark is a terrible judge of whether we got to AGI. If we assume that humans have "general intelligence", we would assume all humans could ace Arc... but they can't. Try asking your average person, i.e. supermarket workers, gas station attendants etc to do the Arc puzzles, they will do poorly, especially on the newer ones, but AI has to do perfectly to prove they have general intelligence? (not tryi…

It is not a judge of whether we got to AGI. And literally no one except straw-manning critics are trying to claim it is. The point is, an AGI should easily be able to pass it. But it can obviously be passed without getting to AGI (as . It's a necessary but not sufficient criteria. If something can't pass a test as simple as AGI (which no AI currently can) then it's definitely not AGI. Anyone claiming AGI should be able to point their AI at the problem and have an 80+% solution rate. Current attempts on the second ARC are less than 10% with zero shot attempts even worse. Even the better performing LLMs on the first ARC couldn't do well without significant pre-training. In short, the G in AGI stands for general.

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#48
post #17
post #4

I feel like I'm the only one who isn't convinced getting a high score on the ARC eval test means we have AGI. It's mostly about pattern matching (and some of it ambiguous even for humans what the actual true response aught to be). It's like how in humans there's lots of different 'types' of intelligence, and just overfitting on IQ tests doesn't in my mind convince me a person is actually that smart.

AGI isn't defined anywhere, so it can be anything you want.

Yes. And a lot of humans also don't pass for having AGI.

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say we're not far off. Looking at the human side, it takes a while to actually learn something. If you've recently read something it remains in your "context window". You need to dream about it, to think about, to revisit and repeat until you actually learn it and "update your internal model". We need a mechanism for continuous weight updating. Goal-generation is pretty much covered by your body constantly drip-f…

> I'd say we're not far off. How are we not far off? How can LLMs generate goals and based on what?

Minimize prediction errors.

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#50
post #19
post #4

I feel like I'm the only one who isn't convinced getting a high score on the ARC eval test means we have AGI. It's mostly about pattern matching (and some of it ambiguous even for humans what the actual true response aught to be). It's like how in humans there's lots of different 'types' of intelligence, and just overfitting on IQ tests doesn't in my mind convince me a person is actually that smart.

Today’s llms are fancy autocomplete but lack test time self learning or persistent drive. By contrast, an AGI would require: – A goal-generation mechanism (G) that can propose objectives without external prompts – A utility function (U) and policy π(a│s) enabling action selection and hierarchy formation over extended horizons – Stateful memory (M) + feedback integration to evaluate outcomes, revise plans, and execute…

In fact, there is no technical threshold anymore. As long as the theory is in place, you can see such AGI at most half a year. It will even be more energy efficient than the current dense models.

https://dmf-archive.github.io/docs/posts/beyond-snn-plausibl...

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