I know it's unlikely to be available tomorrow or sometime soon but as an hypothetical question.
Also, which countries would fare worse? And why?
Ask HN: If AGI were invented tomorrow which countries would fare better?
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Re: Ask HN: If AGI were invented tomorrow which countries would fare better?
#2i feel like AI will replace the offshore jobs first....so those countries would probably fair worse.
Re: Ask HN: If AGI were invented tomorrow which countries would fare better?
#3The ones which access to abundant and uninterrupted energy far in excess of their current needs.
Re: Ask HN: If AGI were invented tomorrow which countries would fare better?
#4Does AGI take over running the government? I guess the countries with especially stupid governmental leaders at the moment would come out ahead.
Re: Ask HN: If AGI were invented tomorrow which countries would fare better?
#5i feel like AI will replace the offshore jobs first....so those countries would probably fair worse.
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Re: Ask HN: If AGI were invented tomorrow which countries would fare better?
#6my guess would be that it would make rich countries even richer, and poor countries even poorer
Re: Ask HN: If AGI were invented tomorrow which countries would fare better?
#7Does this assume they all have the AGI at the same time? In that case, it depends on the local ruling gang; whether they want to adopt its advice or not.
But oversimplifying: Assuming all countries have access to AGI and just start implementations of whatever it is suggesting.
The countries that will do well are resource rich and population rich. Since brain power is unlimited, the limit is physical labor. Countries like Indonesia will be super rich while countries like Switzerland will become relatively poor to where they ranked before.
In reality, your odds are as good as mine. There are lots of variables at play, and the first mover advantage will be big (as first country/company/guys to reach AGI).
Re: Ask HN: If AGI were invented tomorrow which countries would fare better?
#8There's been more or less no progress on the alignment problem; we don't consistently manage it for corporations, we certainly don't manage it for LLMs, and the prevailing wisdom an elaboration on the theme “why would an AGI do something dumb like that lol?”
I expect people in nations that are modernized, but with significant sovereign wealth funds and well-developed social programs will survive the longest, but I expect being economically choked out is inevitable even with a very slow (decades to centuries) take-off.
Re: Ask HN: If AGI were invented tomorrow which countries would fare better?
#9[deleted]
Re: Ask HN: If AGI were invented tomorrow which countries would fare better?
#10It's hard to say who will fare best, but it's evident who'll do the worst. The European Union will regulate AGI out of existence. Most citizens would not want to use it because of climate change, or something.
I think poor countries with weak democracies or dysfunctional systems would do pretty good with AGI. I don't believe democracy will survive AGI, except, perhaps in the United States.