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Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

thealgorithmicbridge.com

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Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#31

Post by tenthirtyam »

bsenftner wrote: post #7

Also, AGI is not just around the corner. We need artificial comprehension for that, and we don't even have a theory how comprehension works. Comprehension is the fusing of separate elements into new functional wholes, dynamically abstracting observations, evaluating them for plausibility, and reconstituting the whole - and all instantaneously, for security purposes, of every sense constantly. We have no technology th…

You'd need to define "comprehension" - it's a bit like the Chinese room / Turing test.

If an AI or AGI can look at a picture and see an apple, or (say) with an artificial nose smell an apple, or likewise feel or taste or hear* an apple, and at the same identify that it is an apple and maybe even suggest baking an apple pie, then what else is there to be comprehended?

Maybe humans are just the same - far far ahead of the state of the tech, but still just the same really.

*when someone bites into it :-)

For me, what AI is missing is genuine out-of-the-box revolutionary thinking. They're trained on existing material, so perhaps it's fundamentally impossible for AIs to think up a breakthrough in any field - barring circumstances where all the component parts of a breakthrough already exist and the AI is the first to connect the dots ("standing on the shoulders of giants" etc).

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#32

Post by PicassoCTs »

Im reading the "AI"-industry as a totally different bet- not so much, as a "AGI" is coming bet of many companies, but a "climate change collapse" is coming and we want to continue to be in business, even if our workers stay at home/flee or die, the infrastructure partially collapses and our central office burns to the ground-bet. In that regard, even the "AI" we have today, makes total sense as a insurance policy.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#33

Post by sumeno »

> Right before “making tons of money to redistribute to all of humanity through AGI,” there’s another step, which is making tons of money.

I've got some bad news for the author if they think AGI will be used to benefit all of humanity instead of the handful of billionaires that will control it.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#34

Post by impossiblefork »

deergomoo wrote: post #22
impossiblefork wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I might, depending on the definition. Some kind of verbal-only-AGI that can solve almost all mathematical problems that humans come up with that can be solved in half a page. I think that's achievable somewhere in the near term, 2-7 years.

Is that “general” though? I’ve always taken AGI to mean general to any problem.

I suppose not.

Things I think will be hard for LLMs to do, which some humans can: you get handed 500 pages of Geheimschreiber encrypted telegraph traffic and infinite paper, and you have to figure out how the cryptosystem works and how to decrypt the traffic. I don't think that can happen. I think it requires a highly developed pattern recognition ability together with an ability to not get lost, which LLM-type things will probably continue to for a long time.

But if they could maths more fully, then pretty much all carefully defined tasks would be in reach if they weren't too long.

With regard to what Touche brings up in the other response to your comment, I think that it might be possible to get them to read up on things though-- go through something, invent problems, try to solve those. I think this is something that could be done today with today's models with no real special innovation, but which just hasn't been made into a service yet. But this of course doesn't address that criticism, since it assumes the availability of data.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#35

Post by Game_Ender »

zaphirplane wrote: post #18
rvz wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. For example, Microsoft was building data centers all over the world since "AGI" was "around the corner" according to them. Now they are cancelling those plans. For them "AGI" was cancelled. OpenAI claims to be closer and closer to "AGI" as more top scientists left or are getting poached by other labs that are behind. So why would you leave if the promise of achieving "AGI" was going to produce "$100B dollars…

I’m not commenting on the whole just the rhetorical question of why would people leave. They are leaving for more money, more seniority or because they don’t like their boss. 0 about AGI

I think the implicit take is that if your company hits AGI your equity package will do something like 10x-100x even if the company is already big. The only other way to do that is join a startup early enough to ride its growth wave.

Another way to say it is that people think it’s much more likely for each decent LLM startup grow really strongly first several years then plateau vs. then for their current established player to hit hyper growth because of AGI.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#36

Post by bombcar »

A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #4

> "This is purely an observation: You only jump ship in the middle of a conquest if either all ships are arriving at the same time (unlikely) or neither is arriving at all. This means that no AI lab is close to AGI." The central claim here is illogical. The way I see it, if you believe that AGI is imminent, and if your personal efforts are not entirely crucial to bringing AGI about (just about all engineers are in th…

>your best move is to do whatever is most profitable in the near-term

Unless you’re a significant shareholder, that’s almost always the best move, anyway. Companies have no loyalty to you and you need to watch out for yourself and why you’re living.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#37

Post by Touche »

tenthirtyam wrote: post #31
bsenftner wrote: post #7

Also, AGI is not just around the corner. We need artificial comprehension for that, and we don't even have a theory how comprehension works. Comprehension is the fusing of separate elements into new functional wholes, dynamically abstracting observations, evaluating them for plausibility, and reconstituting the whole - and all instantaneously, for security purposes, of every sense constantly. We have no technology th…

You'd need to define "comprehension" - it's a bit like the Chinese room / Turing test. If an AI or AGI can look at a picture and see an apple, or (say) with an artificial nose smell an apple, or likewise feel or taste or hear* an apple, and at the same identify that it is an apple and maybe even suggest baking an apple pie, then what else is there to be comprehended? Maybe humans are just the same - far far ahead of…

They might not be capable of ingenuity, but they can spot patterns humans can miss. And that accelerates AI research, where it might help invent the next AI that helps invent the next AI that finally can think outside the box.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#38

Post by bsenftner »

tenthirtyam wrote: post #31
bsenftner wrote: post #7

Also, AGI is not just around the corner. We need artificial comprehension for that, and we don't even have a theory how comprehension works. Comprehension is the fusing of separate elements into new functional wholes, dynamically abstracting observations, evaluating them for plausibility, and reconstituting the whole - and all instantaneously, for security purposes, of every sense constantly. We have no technology th…

You'd need to define "comprehension" - it's a bit like the Chinese room / Turing test. If an AI or AGI can look at a picture and see an apple, or (say) with an artificial nose smell an apple, or likewise feel or taste or hear* an apple, and at the same identify that it is an apple and maybe even suggest baking an apple pie, then what else is there to be comprehended? Maybe humans are just the same - far far ahead of…

I do define it, right up there in my OP. It's subtle, you missed it. Everybody misses it, because comprehension is like air, we swim in it constantly, to the degree the majority cannot even see it.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#39

Post by bsenftner »

lizknope wrote: post #16
bsenftner wrote: post #5

Maybe I'm too jaded, I expect all this nonsense. It's human beings doing all this, after all. We ain't the most mature crowd...

I never had any trust in the AI industry in the first place so there was no trust to lose.

Take it further, this entire civilization is an integrity void.
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