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OBBB signed: Reinstates immediate expensing for U.S.-based R&D

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Re: OBBB signed: Reinstates immediate expensing for U.S.-based R&D

#101
post #89

So this is going to get all those jobs back that people have been layed off for right? Right?

Hiring software engineers is going to become less expensive. So likely there's going to be more jobs on the market, and maybe better jobs.

But when a forest is cut, usually a new forest that grows on that place looks different.

Re: OBBB signed: Reinstates immediate expensing for U.S.-based R&D

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone who knows anything about software and has used AI for more than 24 hours knows that AI won't be "replacing" software engineering anytime soon.

ive been coding 5+ hours a day almost every day for 15 years. i think ai will replace 70% of SWE in the near future. not employement, but 70% of the current work done by engineers

Agreed. I see AI as a major tool upgrade in the same way the IDE was an upgrade from text editors. It will quickly replace the need to do trivial things and greatly reduce the time needed to do complex things.

Re: OBBB signed: Reinstates immediate expensing for U.S.-based R&D

#103

I think we will see this lead to a boost in software developer employment.

I doubt it, the narrative is that software engineering is dead and everything will be replaced by AI, so that salaries can continue to be depressed. Just like the original passing didn't really cause much trouble in the general market this repeal will mostly just produce more shareholder value.

Original passing didn't cause much trouble because the provision didn't take effect til 4 years later.

Re: OBBB signed: Reinstates immediate expensing for U.S.-based R&D

#104

The elimination of green energy incentives is going to have a big negative effect on the economy. Those billions of dollars not only were going to new businesses and jobs, but they were joined with loans from banks and commitments from customers with the expectation that the government would be funding the remainder. This means private industry and banks will be shouldering the loss of hundreds of billions of dollars…

Any green energy project that isn't nuclear is a waste of money and resources. Nuclear is now being pursued in earnest by the tech industry itself. There's no problem here.

Re: OBBB signed: Reinstates immediate expensing for U.S.-based R&D

#105
post #2

> Foreign R&D must still be amortized over 15 years

Sure, foreign R&D still gets amortized over 15 years (NPV ≈59 % of a full write-off, so you “lose” ~8.6 % of your R&D spend in present-value terms, and only 6.7 % of the cost is deductible in year 1, creating a 19.6 % cash-tax gap).

But offshore wages are often 50–70 % below U.S. rates:

• Even after the slower amortization drag, hiring at half the cost nets you ~30 % total savings on R&D headcount.

• On a pure cash basis you only need ~20 % lower wages to break even; most offshore markets easily exceed that.

• So the labor-cost arbitrage far outweighs the tax timing penalty unless your foreign salaries are less than ~20 % below U.S. levels.

In short: the 15-year amort rule hurts your tax deduction, but 50 %+ lower offshore wages more than make up for it.

Re: OBBB signed: Reinstates immediate expensing for U.S.-based R&D

#106

The elimination of green energy incentives is going to have a big negative effect on the economy. Those billions of dollars not only were going to new businesses and jobs, but they were joined with loans from banks and commitments from customers with the expectation that the government would be funding the remainder. This means private industry and banks will be shouldering the loss of hundreds of billions of dollars…

What evidence is there of governments being more successful at picking winners than the market?

Governments should stay out of the winner-picking business, which they do with money from the public purse, and allow individuals and enterprise to use their own money to have a go at picking winners themselves.

If industry and banks find investment in any particular field unpalatable without Government incentive, then those investments were unpalatable to start with.

Industry and banks will find something better to do with their money.

Re: OBBB signed: Reinstates immediate expensing for U.S.-based R&D

#107

The elimination of green energy incentives is going to have a big negative effect on the economy. Those billions of dollars not only were going to new businesses and jobs, but they were joined with loans from banks and commitments from customers with the expectation that the government would be funding the remainder. This means private industry and banks will be shouldering the loss of hundreds of billions of dollars…

The largest competitor to US renewables, would be China. They have been rolling back their subsidies for years. [1]

China, India, Russia, Turkey, Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia (off the top of my head, and a quick google to add a few I missed [2]) have all increased investments into coal since 2020.

The renewable industry in the US was wrought with companies seizing as many renewable credits and subsidies as they can, while providing as little as possible to show for them. If this moves the industry as a whole to focus on projects that are not just marginal at best, we should start to see better traction on projects that actually matter.

We have long been told that renewables are cheaper in every way that matters, so let's see the economics of that play out.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-roll-back-clea...

[2] https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/wind-and-solar-repla...

Re: OBBB signed: Reinstates immediate expensing for U.S.-based R&D

#108
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Unless there is some kind of relationship to tech, political posts are generally removed from this site. You shouldn’t interpret this sites focus as the people that post here not thinking there are more important things.

There's no guarantee that posts related to tech that are also related to political stuff will avoid being flagged.

Even when there is a relationship with tech political posts are generally removed if they don't align with a zeitgeist of modern America that seems to chose to fall in line instead of resisting unseemly actions by the new government.

Re: OBBB signed: Reinstates immediate expensing for U.S.-based R&D

#110

The elimination of green energy incentives is going to have a big negative effect on the economy. Those billions of dollars not only were going to new businesses and jobs, but they were joined with loans from banks and commitments from customers with the expectation that the government would be funding the remainder. This means private industry and banks will be shouldering the loss of hundreds of billions of dollars…

What evidence is there of governments being more successful at picking winners than the market? Governments should stay out of the winner-picking business, which they do with money from the public purse, and allow individuals and enterprise to use their own money to have a go at picking winners themselves. If industry and banks find investment in any particular field unpalatable without Government incentive, then tho…

Sure, I'll bite. Will they invest in more coal and gas instead? And help cook the planet? You post as if you don't know what it's about, but of course you do. Disingenuous and contemptible.
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