One thing I find frustrating is that management where I work has heard of 10x productivity gains. Some of those claims even come from early adopters at my work. But that sets expectation way too high. Partly it is due to Amdahl's law: I spend only a portion of my time coding, and far more time thinking and communicating with others that are customers of my code. Even if does make the coding 10x faster (and it doesn't…
I don't disagree with your assessment of the world today, but just 12 months ago (before the current crop of base models and coding agents like Claude Code), even that 10X improvement of writing some-of-the-code wouldn't have been true.
You had to paste more into your prompts back then to make the output work with the rest of your codebase, because there weren't good IDEs/"agents" for it, but you've been able to get really really good code for 90% of "most" day to day SWE since at least OpenAI releasing the ChatGPT-4 API, which was a couple years ago.
Today it's a lot easier to demo low-effort "make a whole new feature or prototype" things than doing the work to make the right API calls back then, but most day to day work isn't "one shot a new prototype web app" and probably won't ever be.
I'm personally more productive than 1 or 2 years ago now because the time required to build the prompts was slower than my personal rate of writing code for a lot of things in my domain, but hardly 10x. It usually one-shots stuff wrong, and then there's a good chance that it'll take longer to chase down the errors than it would've to just write the thing - or only use it as "better autocomplete" - in the first place.