ChatGPT can write research papers in about 20 minutes—its the “Deep Research” tool. These are not original papers, but it can perform complex tasks that require multiple steps that would normally take a person hours. No its not a magic superintelligence, but it will transform a lot of white collar labor.
Everything around LLMs is still magical and wishful thinking
31–40 of 377 posts
Re: Everything around LLMs is still magical and wishful thinking
#32I'm a retired programmer. I can't imagine trusting code generated by probablities for anything mission critical. If it were close and just needed minor tweaks I could understand that. But I don't have experience with it. My comment is mainly to say LLMs are amazing in areas that are not coding, like brainstorming, blue sky thinking, filling in research details, asking questions that make me reflect. I treat the LLM l…
Well; I can't speak to your specific experience (current or past) but I'm telling you that while I'm skeptical as hell about EVERYTHING, it's blowing my expectations away in every conceivable way.
I built something in less than 24h that I'm sure would have taken us MONTHS to just get off the ground, let alone to the polished version it's at right now. The most impressive thing is that it can do all of the things that I absolutely can do, just faster. But the most impressive thing is that it can do all the things I cannot possibly do and would have had to hire up/contract out to accomplish--for far less money, time, and with faster iterations than if I had to communicate with another human being.
It's not perfect and it's incredibly frustrating at times (hardcoding values into the code when I have explicitly told it not to; outright lying that it made a particular fix, when it actually changed something else entirely unrelated), but it is a game changer IMO.
Re: Everything around LLMs is still magical and wishful thinking
#33I personally don't really get this.
_So much_ work in the 'services' industries globally comes down to really a human transposing data from one Excel sheet to another (or from a CRM/emails to Excel), manually. Every (or nearly every) enterprise scale company will have hundreds if not thousands of FTEs doing this kind of work day in day out - often with a lot of it outsourced. I would guess that for every 1 software engineer there are 100 people doing this kind of 'manual data pipelining'.
So really for giant value to be created out of LLMs you do not need them to be incredible at OCaml. They just need to ~outperform humans on Excel. Where I do think MCP really helps is that you can connect all these systems together easily, and a lot of the errors in this kind of work came from trying to pass the entire 'task' in context. If you can take an email via MCP, extract some data out and put it into a CRM (again via MCP) a row at a time the hallucination rate is very low IME. I would say at least a junior overworked human level.
Perhaps this was the point of the article, but non-determinism is not an issue for these kind of use cases, given all the humans involved are not deterministic either. We can build systems and processes to help enforce quality on non deterministic (eg: human) systems.
Finally, I've followed crypto closely and also LLMs closely. They do not seem to be similar in terms of utility and adoption. The closest thing I can recall is smartphone adoption. A lot of my non technical friends didn't think/want a smartphone when the iPhone first came out. Within a few years, all of them have them. Similar with LLMs. Virtually all of my non technical friends use it now for incredibly varied use cases.
Re: Everything around LLMs is still magical and wishful thinking
#34"It's crypto all over again" Crypto is a lifeline for me, as I cannot open a bank account in the country I live in, for reasons I can neither control nor fix. So I am happy if crypto is useless for you. For me and for millions like me, it is a matter of life and death. As for LLMs — once again, magic for some, reliable deterministic instrument for others (and also magic). Just classified and sorted a few hundreds of…
Said this in another thread and I'll repeat it here: It's the same problem that crypto experiences. Almost everyone is propagating lies about the technology, even if a majority of those doing so don't understand enough to realize they're lies (naivety vs malice). I'd argue there's more intentional lying in crypto and less value to be gained, but in both cases people who might derive real benefit from the hard truth o…
> I'd argue there's more intentional lying in crypto
I disagree. Crypto sounds more like intentional lying because it's primarily hyped in contexts typical for scams/gambling. Yes, there are businesses involved (anybody can start one), but they're mostly new businesses or a tiny tack-on to an existing business.
AI is largely being hyped within the existing major corporate structures, therefore its lies just get tagged as as "business as usual". That doesn't make them any less of a lie though.
Re: Everything around LLMs is still magical and wishful thinking
#35I have to say I’m in the exact camp the author is complaining about. I’ve shipped non trivial greenfield products which I started back when it was only ChatGPT and it was shitty. I started using Claude with copying and pasting back and forth between the web chat and XCode. Then I discovered Cursor. It left me with a lot of annoying build errors, but my productivity was still at least 3x. Now that agents are better an…
Web dev CRUD in node?
Re: Everything around LLMs is still magical and wishful thinking
#36Everything? As a lawyer, I’m producing 2x - with fewer errors. Admittedly, law is a field that mostly involves shuffling words around so it may be the best case scenario, but much of the skepticism comes off as cope.
Re: Everything around LLMs is still magical and wishful thinking
#37One thing I find frustrating is that management where I work has heard of 10x productivity gains. Some of those claims even come from early adopters at my work. But that sets expectation way too high. Partly it is due to Amdahl's law: I spend only a portion of my time coding, and far more time thinking and communicating with others that are customers of my code. Even if does make the coding 10x faster (and it doesn't…
> overall my productivity is 10-15% better. That is nothing to sneeze at, but it isn't 10x. It is something to sneeze at if you are 10-15% more expensive to employ due to the cost of the LLM tools. The total cost of production should always be considered, not just throughput.
That's a good insight be because with perfect competition it means you need to share your old salary with an LLM!
Re: Everything around LLMs is still magical and wishful thinking
#38Software methodologies and workflows are not engineering either, yet we spend a fair amount of time iterating and refining those. You can very much become better at prompt engineering. There is a huge differential between individuals, for example.
The code coming out of LLMs is just as deterministic as code coming out of humans, and despite humans being feckle beings, we still talk of software engineering.
As for LLMs, they are and will forever be "unknowable". The human mind just can't comprehend what a billion parameters trained on trillions of tokens under different regimes for months corresponds to. While science has to do microscopic steps towards understanding the brain, we still have methods to teach, learn, be creative, be rigorous, communicate that do work despite it being this "magical" organ.
With LLMs, you can be pretty rigorous. Benchmarks, evals, and just the vibes of day to day usage if you are a programmer, are not "wishful thinking", they are reasonably effective methods and the best we have.
Re: Everything around LLMs is still magical and wishful thinking
#39I think that the disparity comes between people that are too in the weeds believing that their use cases apply to everyone. The reality is this world is made up of people with a wide array of different needs and AI is yet to proliferate into all usage applications. Sure some of this comes from a lack of education. But similar to crypto these movements only have value if the value is widely perceived. We have to work…
Was this text generated by an LLM?
Re: Everything around LLMs is still magical and wishful thinking
#40I'm a retired programmer. I can't imagine trusting code generated by probablities for anything mission critical. If it were close and just needed minor tweaks I could understand that. But I don't have experience with it. My comment is mainly to say LLMs are amazing in areas that are not coding, like brainstorming, blue sky thinking, filling in research details, asking questions that make me reflect. I treat the LLM l…
I've been programming for 40 years and have started using LLM's a few months ago, and it has really changed the way I work. I let it write pieces of code (pasting error messages from logs mostly result in a fix in less then a minute), but also brainstorming about architecture or new solutions. Of course I check the code it writes, but I'm still almost daily amazed at the intelligence and accuracy. (Very much unlike crypto).