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Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase

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Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase

#311

Post by cjbillington »

pzo wrote: post #299
ajmurmann wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have good metrics. The problem is the media seems to only ever look at one of them at a time but we need to look at several at once to get a more complete picture. Your scenario would be called out by median household income, or better median disposable household income. Even the good old GDP per capita covers your case. Workforce participation also can be valuable instead of or in addition to unemployment numbers…

> Even the good old GDP per capita covers your case. GDP or even GDP per capita is not the best metric. You can sell 100 iphones for $1000 or sell 500 cheap androids for $200 and both countries will have same GDP but I think output and outcome is much better in latter case (you produced 5x more products and 5x more people can benefits and be more productive with those 'tools'). Sure iphone for $1000 is better than $2…

If it's true that more phones will allow people to be more productive, that increase in productivity should show up in GDP as well

Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase

#312

Post by giantg2 »

zzgo wrote: post #247
giantg2 wrote: post #145

I'm about to lose my job too. The job market looks terrible.

I've been unemployed for months. In the last couple of weeks, I've been rejected for jobs as a pool cleaner, shelf stocker, and a state job requiring me to check multiple email accounts and watch security cameras. I've also recently been rejected as an overnight courier and software tester. Whatever you imagine the job market to be like, I assure you it's worse.

I assume will end up working at Walmart or something. I have a disability, so I think the market looks even worse to me.

Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase

#313

Post by giantg2 »

jjtheblunt wrote: post #236
giantg2 wrote: post #145

I'm about to lose my job too. The job market looks terrible.

Don't lose hope; I left grad school right before the first dotcom failures 25ish years ago. I think you'll find that when some novel technology erupts onto the scene, the job market goes through a shift of semi incoherence, that hits folks like us. but, it's temporary and can introduce a way more enthralling era of jobs.

I think between agism and ableism probably won't get another developer job.

Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase

#314

Post by satyrun »

Analemma_ wrote: post #15
kasey_junk wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You of course know that we have a diverse set of metrics for unemployment that capture all of what you are talking about right? And that is before we talk about alternative signals like the ADP number this like references. Anytime someone says “we need better ways” you should just read it as “I should do more reading”, because this is a very well studied, understood and measured set of data.

Yes, it's extremely irritating every time people trot out the same copy-pasted complaints about the BLS unemployment rate and how wrong it is, ignoring the fact that the BLS publishes six different unemployment rates, which specifically address most of those complaints. It's a sign of terminal incuriosity and using only superficial and secondhand sources of information like news reports on the unemployment rate, and…

The mistake you are making is believing people are interested in the truth and the assumption that humans are rational truth seeking agents.

People mostly consume news as a form of entertainment with a dopamine hit from having their prior beliefs confirmed or for gossip. It is why the "news" is so popular.

I have thought quite a bit about building "real" news outlets but it is hard to not conclude it is a waste of time.

Reinforcing priors and gossiping is just what humans do. In the west, we really get off on a simulation of truth seeking even when the slightest bit of analysis can show the simulation is ridiculous.

The Titan submersible news event is really a great lens to grasp this in retrospect considering anyone with domain knowledge knew right away the truth that the Titan had imploded.

Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase

#316

Post by al_borland »

WillPostForFood wrote: post #144
chc4 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ADP say that they handle payroll for one in six of all companies in America. That is both a large sample size, and probably broadly representative of the economy. There will of course be some business segments that are over or underrepresented but that is different than disregarding the entire report as noise.

ADP reported a meager 29,000 increase in new jobs, but the BLS showed a much larger 139,000 gain. April also showed a similarly wide gap between the two reports. Through the first five months of 2025, the difference between the two reports has averaged a whopping 63,000 a month. source: https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20250702107/be-... ADP has always been out of sync with BLS numbers. Here is an article…

Elsewhere in the comments it mentions that ADP is weighted more toward the private sector, while BLS is more representative of government jobs.

These two things don’t need to be in lockstep.

Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase

#317

Post by al_borland »

eastbound wrote: post #69
chc4 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ADP say that they handle payroll for one in six of all companies in America. That is both a large sample size, and probably broadly representative of the economy. There will of course be some business segments that are over or underrepresented but that is different than disregarding the entire report as noise.

ADP is predominant in large companies and has little hold in startups. It skews the stats.

> over 900,000 small businesses trust ADP [0]

From what I can find they have 1.1m clients and over 900k are small businesses. The vast majority. This makes sense, as there aren’t that many massive companies.

[0] https://www.adp.com/what-we-offer/payroll/payroll-for-1-49-e...

Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase

#318

Post by [deleted] »

virgildotcodes wrote: post #130
skipants wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If every ex-6-figure worker has to work at Applebee's to make ends meet... then who's eating at Applebee's?

Applebees drops prices to enable their employees to eat at Applebees. Margins fall, wages universally clamped to minimum wage, layoffs hit. Fewer Applebees workers with lower wages means a shrinking demand side of the Applebees ouroboros, resulting in a spiral of Applebees price cuts, revenue drops, layoffs. The end state of humanity is a desolate Applebees parking lot strewn with desiccated human corpses and the las…

[deleted]

Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase

#319

Post by mrangle »

psunavy03 wrote: post #6

We really need better ways of measuring economic health. I could lose my six-figure job, turn around, and get hired on as a server at Applebee's for minimum wage, and the "unemployment" rate would stay the same. Not to mention that it doesn't include those not actively looking for work. Either way, "full employment" doesn't mean much unless you take into account whether people are actually able to live a stable lifes…

Full employment transitioning to mean middle class job, or replacement income, would be wild.

Point the way to the line for rigid economic class assignments.

Re: Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase

#320

Post by gruez »

vitorgrs wrote: post #291
gruez wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're talking about the spike in Q1 2020, there's nothing weird going on. That's from all the service workers getting laid off, which bumps up the average because they're typically lower paid, and no longer drag down the "employed" average.

Also, does it count the COVID checks?

>The usual weekly earnings data reflect only wage and salary earnings from work, not gross income from all sources. These data do not include the cash value of benefits such as employer-provided health insurance.

https://www.bls.gov/cps/definitions.htm#earnings

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