How large are large language models?

One factor, is the huge redundancies pervasive in our communication.

(1) There are so many ways to say the same thing, that (2) we have to add even more words to be precise at all. Without a verbal indexing system we (3) spend many words just setting up context for what we really want to say. And finally, (4) we pervasively add a great deal of intentionally non-informational creative and novel variability, and mood inducing color, which all require even more redundancy to maintain reliable interpretation, in order to induce our minds to maintain attention.

Our minds are active resistors of plain information!

All four factors add so much redundancy, it’s probably fair to say most of our communication (by bits, characters, words, etc., may be 95%?, 98%? or more!) pure redundancy.

Another helpful compressor, is many facts are among a few “reasonably expected” alternative answers. So it takes just a little biasing information to encode the right option.

Finally, the way we reason seems to be highly common across everything that matters to us. Even though we have yet to identify and characterize this informal human logic. So once that is modeled, that itself must compress a lot of relations significantly.

Fuzzy Logic was a first approximation attempt at modeling human “logic”. But has not been very successful.

Models should eventually help us uncover that “human logic”, by analyzing how they model it. Doing so may let us create even more efficient architectures. Perhaps significantly more efficient, and even provide more direct non-gradient/data based “thinking” design.

Nevertheless, the level of compression is astounding!

We are far less complicated cognitive machines that we imagine! Scary, but inspiring too.

I personally believe that common PCs of today, maybe even high end smart phones circa 2025, will be large enough to run future super intelligence when we get it right, given internet access to look up information.

We have just begun to compress artificial minds.

This is essentially just compression and decompression. It's just that with prior compression techniques, we never tried leveraging the inherent relationships encoded in a compressed data structure, because our compression schemes did not leverage semantic information in a generalized way and thus did not encode very meaningful relationships other than "this data uses the letter 'e' quite a lot".

A lot of that comes from the sheer amount of data we throw at these models, which provide enough substrate for semantic compression. Compare that to common compression schemes in the wild, where data is compressed in isolation without contributing its information to some model of the world. It turns out that because of this, we've been leaving a lot on the table with regards to compression. Another factor has been the speed/efficiency tradeoff. GPUs have allowed us to put a lot more into efficiency, and the expectations that many language models only need to produce text as fast as it can be read by a human means that we can even further optimize for efficiency over speed.

Also, shout out to Fabrice Bellard's ts_zip, which leverages LLMs to compress text files. https://bellard.org/ts_zip/

Then ask for the same list sorted and get that nearly instantly,

These models have a short time context for now, but they already have a huge “working memory” relative to us.

It is very cool. And indicative that vastly smarter models are going to be achieved fairly easily, with new insight.

Our biology has had to ruthlessly work within our biological/ecosystem energy envelope, and with the limited value/effort returned by a pre-internet pre-vast economy.

So biology has never been able to scale. Just get marginally more efficient and effective within tight limits.

Suddenly, (in historical, biological terms), energy availability limits have been removed, and limits on the value of work have compounded and continue to do so. Unsurprising that those changes suddenly unlock easily achieved vast untapped room for cognitive upscaling.