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There are no new ideas in AI, only new datasets

blog.jxmo.io

111–120 of 307 posts

Re: There are no new ideas in AI, only new datasets

#111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s really easy: go to Claude and ask it a novel question. It will generally reason its way to a perfectly good answer even if there is no direct example of it in the training data.

How do you know it’s a novel question?

It's not exactly difficult to come up with a question that's so unusual the chance of it being in the training set is effectively zero.

Re: There are no new ideas in AI, only new datasets

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He is not using appropriate models for this conclusion and neither is he using state of the art models in this research and moreover he doesn't have an expensive foundational model to build upon for 2d games. It's just a fun project. A serious attempt at video/vision would involve some probabilistic latent space that can be noised in ways that make sense for games in general. I think veo3 proves that ai can generaliz…

> generating a video under prompt constraints is basically playing a game Besides static puzzles (like a maze or jigsaw) I don't believe this analogy holds? A model working with prompt constraints that aren't evolving or being added over the course of "navigating" the generation of the model's output means it needs to process 0 new information that it didn't come up with itself — playing a game is different from othe…

[flagged]

Re: There are no new ideas in AI, only new datasets

#113

If you work with model architecture and read papers, how could not know there are a flood of new ideas? Only few yield interesting results though. I kind of wonder if libraries like pytorch have hurt experimental development. So many basic concepts no one thinks about anymore because they just use the out of the box solutions. And maybe those solutions are great and those parts are "solved", but I am not sure. How ma…

The people who don't think about such things probably wouldn't develop experimentally sans pytorch either.

Re: There are no new ideas in AI, only new datasets

#114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s really easy: go to Claude and ask it a novel question. It will generally reason its way to a perfectly good answer even if there is no direct example of it in the training data.

When LLM's come up with answers to questions that aren't directly exampled in the training data, that's not proof at all that it reasoned its way there — it can very much still be pattern matching without insight from the actual code execution of the answer generation. If we were taking a walk and you asked me for an explanation for a mathematical concept I have not actually studied, I am fully capable of hazarding a…

LLMs clearly don't reason in the same way that humans or SMT solvers do. That doesn't mean they aren't reasoning.

Re: There are no new ideas in AI, only new datasets

#115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't get why people are so invested in framing it this way. I'm sure there are ways to do the stated objective. John Carmack isn't even an AI guy why is he suddenly the standard.

Names >> all, and increasingly so. One phenomena that bared this to me, in a substantive way, was noticing an increasing # of reverent comments re: Geohot in odd places here, that are just as quickly replied to by people with a sense of how he works , as opposed to the keywords he associates himself with . But that only happens here AFAIK. Yapping, or, inducing people to yap about me, unfortunately, is much more sali…

> Now I have to rework my site to not use "prompt engineering" and have a Take™ on "context engineering". Because of a couple tweets + a blog reverberating over 2-3 days.

The difference here is that your example shows a trivial statement and a change period of 3 days, whereas what Carmack is doing is taking years.

Re: There are no new ideas in AI, only new datasets

#116

What John Carmack is exploring is pretty revealing. Train models to play 2D video games to a superhuman level, then ask them to play a level they have not seen before or another 2D video game they have not seen before. The transfer function is negative. So, in my definition, no intelligence has been developed, only expertise in a narrow set of tasks. It’s apparently much easier to scare the masses with visions of ASI…

He is not using appropriate models for this conclusion and neither is he using state of the art models in this research and moreover he doesn't have an expensive foundational model to build upon for 2d games. It's just a fun project. A serious attempt at video/vision would involve some probabilistic latent space that can be noised in ways that make sense for games in general. I think veo3 proves that ai can generaliz…

> I think veo3 proves that ai can generalize 2d and even 3d games

It doesn't. And you said it yourself:

> generating a video under prompt constraints is basically playing a game.

No. It's neither generating a game (that people can play) nor is it playing a game (it's generating a video).

Since it's not a model of the world in any sense of the word, there are issues with even the most basic object permanenece. E.g. here's veo3 generating a GTA-style video. Oh look, the car spins 360 and ends up on a completely different street than the one it was driving down previously: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ja2PVllZcsI

Re: There are no new ideas in AI, only new datasets

#117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you know it’s a novel question?

It's not exactly difficult to come up with a question that's so unusual the chance of it being in the training set is effectively zero.

And as any programmer will tell you: they immediately devolve into "hallucinating" answers, not trying to actually reason about the world. Because that's what they do: they create statistically plausible answers even if those answers are complete nonsense.

Re: There are no new ideas in AI, only new datasets

#118
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can trivially prove this yourself. Given the long list of dead philosophers of mind, if you have a trivial proof, would you mind providing a link?

Just go and ask ChatGPT or Claude something that can't possibly be in its training set. Make something up. If it is only memorising answers then it will be impossible for it to get the correct result. A simple nonsense programming task would suffice. For example "write a Python function to erase every character from a string unless either of its adjacent characters are also adjacent to it in the alphabet. The string…

People who say that LLMs memorize stuff are just as clueless who assume that there's any reasoning happening.

They generate statistically plausible answers (to simplify the answer) based on the training set and weights they have.

Re: There are no new ideas in AI, only new datasets

#119

What John Carmack is exploring is pretty revealing. Train models to play 2D video games to a superhuman level, then ask them to play a level they have not seen before or another 2D video game they have not seen before. The transfer function is negative. So, in my definition, no intelligence has been developed, only expertise in a narrow set of tasks. It’s apparently much easier to scare the masses with visions of ASI…

These questions of whether the model is “really intelligent” or whatever might be of interest to academics theorizing about AGI, but to the vast swaths of people getting useful stuff out of LLMs, it doesn’t really matter. We don’t care if the current path leads to AGI. If the line stopped at Claude 4 I’d still keep using it.

And like I get it, it’s fun to complain about the obnoxious and irrational AGI people. But the discussion about how people are using these things in their everyday lives is way more interesting.

Re: There are no new ideas in AI, only new datasets

#120
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> generating a video under prompt constraints is basically playing a game Besides static puzzles (like a maze or jigsaw) I don't believe this analogy holds? A model working with prompt constraints that aren't evolving or being added over the course of "navigating" the generation of the model's output means it needs to process 0 new information that it didn't come up with itself — playing a game is different from othe…

[flagged]

fair, and I edited my choice of words, but if you're reading that much aggression from my initial comment (which contains topical discussion) to say what you did, you must find the internet a far more savage place than it really is :/
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