Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

warontherocks.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

311–320 of 355 posts

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#311

Post by Akasazh »

originalvichy wrote: post #77

FPV drones for combat are a hot flash in the pan. They have had a major effect for now, but naturally as these countermeasures evolve, so weakens their effect. I keep telling people that the terrain and the strategies that Russians use is the primary reason for the effectiveness. Mortars and artillery already handle the same requirements as the author says. The reason they are effective in 2024-25 is that the drip-dr…

All writing on the success of technology in war follows the same structure.

A new weapon is introduced and finds success, is boasted as the future of warfare. It works and is a significant advantage for the side using it, being a force multiplier.

After the initial succes the other side starts using it too, and there's a scramble for countermeasures. This makes the wonder weapon less effective.

Then articles are written that are the inverse of the hype following the first implementation. Even doubting if 'this is the end of -wonder weapon- ?'

Look at the tank. With every new weapon (take drones) it is theorized that drones would be the end of effectiveness of tanks as a weapon system.

It's not, but it's not longer a wonder weapon, yet a piece of equipment, that's constantly evolving. Is an arms race and it's been like that since the invention of the club by our ancestors.

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#312

Post by msgodel »

palata wrote: post #273
msgodel wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I think people overestimate how big yolo models are and how much compute costs.

The drone is 500$. If the board is 300$, it makes it a lot more expensive. What's the value of that board? How much does it help? Remember that you need to fly it with FPV to the place where the operator can select the target. So you have a radio link at some point, that can be jammed.

He's being generous. This could be done with a raspberry pi.

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#313

Post by literalAardvark »

LorenPechtel wrote: post #209
literalAardvark wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That didn't use FPV drones, they're rather difficult to control at 6000km and they didn't have operators nearby. Most likely it's the first major deployment of their semi autonomous drone tech, driven "declaratively". They've shown that stuff recently, they probably used it before showing it.

The report said they were guided remotely. I suspect reality is a combination--think RTS game. You give orders to your units but you don't babysit them.

Yeah that's how I think it went down.

Autonomous control, likely from a base station nearby, or one of their new carrier drones, and remote command.

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#314

Post by literalAardvark »

kilimounjaro wrote: post #217
literalAardvark wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That didn't use FPV drones, they're rather difficult to control at 6000km and they didn't have operators nearby. Most likely it's the first major deployment of their semi autonomous drone tech, driven "declaratively". They've shown that stuff recently, they probably used it before showing it.

Ukraine’s drones were primarily LTE/4G-connected for remote operation

Likely, but that's not enough

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#315

Post by FirmwareBurner »

gspetr wrote: post #307
FirmwareBurner wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Nobody can. Yeah you can, they just don't want to because it will be at the cost of short term corporate economic growth. >And it's not like they don't want to. They don't want to compromise short term corporate profits. They want to have their cake and eat it too. >nor a country like Norway, which can afford the best social program in the world Social programs don't mean shit if nobody can afford to buy urban real…

> Yeah you can Really? Can you name one developed country besides Israel that has succeeded? > Social programs don't mean shit if nobody can afford to buy urban real estate in the big cities where the jobs are The Government Pension Fund Global (Statens pensjonsfond utland), also known as the Oil Fund (Oljefondet), was established in 1990 to invest the surplus revenues of the Norwegian petroleum sector. As of June 20…

>Really? Can you name one developed country besides Israel that has succeeded?

How would they succed when they're not doing anything to succeed?

>Do you have a better argument than housing affordability?

How many families in Oslo can easily afford a 1.5 M apartment?

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#316

Post by dinfinity »

palata wrote: post #255
dinfinity wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe your prediction was "Or maybe it will be like Musk announcing what Teslas will be capable of in 6 months." You seem to think that this ragtag level of warfare between Russia and Ukraine is somehow indicative of what the limit of NATO-level militaries is. I'd say "we'll see", but hopefully we never have to find out.

> I believe your prediction was "Or maybe it will be like Musk announcing what Teslas will be capable of in 6 months." There was a part before the "or" :-). I did not predict anything, I said "maybe, maybe not". And you told me it was "bad reasoning". My point was that the article says that drones have a ton of limitations in 2025, and many comments here say "yeah but that's because it's just the beginning". Drone ma…

> I did not predict anything, I said "maybe, maybe not".

The derisive way of putting the alternative (Musk's proven trash announcements) indicates that you were arguing a certain side. It definitely wasn't neutral.

> And you told me it was "bad reasoning".

The bad reasoning is what you're basing the (let's say) doubt on. You seem to know that a lot of technological progress has happened in the military FPV drone industry, but the article and described limitations are about (again) consumer level shit thrown together, not the advanced FPV drones that exist today.

Perhaps the conclusion should be that a lot of the problems described in the article are already solved, but that Ukraine (and Russia) couldn't get their hands on enough of the more capable FPV drones due to those being too expensive or not produced in large enough quantities.

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#317

Post by FirmwareBurner »

bboygravity wrote: post #297
pzo wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

in japan it was even for many decades and its a problem but not tragedy, japan today still doing strong. Even if population in china shrink by 50% they will still have more pole than europe or us. And lets face it shrinking 50% this will really take decades and unlikely to happen since this will correct itself eventually.

How is Japan still going strong? Have you been there? Real estate just sitting empty, villages deserted, (young) people with no hope for the future, (hidden) poverty, the government and central bank basically bankrupt long-term. Japan is stuck in the 90's with no hope for the future and they will be even less relevant then they are now within 1 generation. Japan is absolutely not "doing strong" for the next 50 years…

I think people consider Japan to be doing strong because it's still a safe peaceful society to live in, despite the economic issues. Compared that to living in LA in the world's strongest economy, where it's like you're in a PvP server. So what's the point of having a strong economy if nobody can afford to live and the streets full of shit from homeless people.

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#318

Post by ihagen »

mike_hearn wrote: post #305
ihagen wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't forget that drones are evolving very fast and their potential is frightening. What about swarm of unmanned AI and computer vision capable drones spreaded across fields and forests waiting for their prey? You can make antipersonnel drones much smaller as you don't need even to kill the enemy - just to wound. You can place a big batteries across that zones so drones could go recharge theirselves and continue serv…

The article contradicts this view. It says that drones are hardly evolving: even years into the war they still use easily jammed analogue radio links on a handful of frequencies, and the biggest "upgrade" has been tying a fiber optic cable to them with all the obvious downsides that implies (at double the cost). Nor have they become easier to pilot. The FPV drone is used in battle largely because they're extremely ch…

As far as I know drones usually are one step forward against jamming capabilities of the defence. Jamming device that blocks all frequences costs a lot in money, consumes a lot of power and can be mounted only on a vehicle. And then fiber-optic drones join the game. Infantry not in the vehicle is unprotected and is unable to defence itself. The only chance to survive is to run faster than drone which can be achieved using bikes. But that is not a solution at all. Not all drones are cheap. What about FPV with night vision cameras? Even if it costs a lot but gives you superiority you can benefit from it in some critical missions and then mass production will reduce the cost. I suppose going from FPV drones to unmanned AI-drones will change everything like when jet aircrafts replaced propeller aircrafts.

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#319

Post by collingreen »

palata wrote: post #280
mopsi wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I recommend looking up European military readiness levels before diving too deep into fantasies. Who is supposed to invade Russia? Latvia, with its tank army of exactly zero tanks? Or a major country like Germany, with its barely 100 operational tanks and enough artillery ammunition for just two days? Even in Russia, only complete loonies treats this as a plausible scenario. That's why you can see bunkers and anti-ta…

> before diving too deep into fantasies You do realise that the parent was actually making a historical reference? "Weapons of mass destruction"... doesn't that ring a bell?

Historical or about a week ago

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#320

Post by ponector »

esseph wrote: post #276
ponector wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GPS guided munitions like Excalibur are useless against peer adversary. Costs as much as 100 regular rounds and as 200+ FPV drones but has zero accuracy thanks to EW and jamming.

... Not quite. Local airborne EW platforms can relay GPS signal. Combined with Inertial Navigation System reduces the CEP. Laser terminal guidance gets it on point. The US has a lot of work to do in EW - it also has done a lot of work to prepare for some of these scenarios.

And yet, more than a year ago: The US gave up sending Ukraine Excalibur guided artillery shells costing $100,000 because they rarely hit their target, report says.
Post reply on HN