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Some thoughts on my first YC Demo Day

billchambers.me

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Re: Some thoughts on my first YC Demo Day

#21

Post by HPMOR »

ecb_penguin wrote: post #19
HPMOR wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

YC is very similar to a university. There is a small group of companies that create the reputation on which everybody lives. The results are extremely exponentially distributed. So yes, it makes sense you joining some arbitrary YC startup was a bad experience. The average performance of a YC company is __phenomenal__, the median performance is poor.

> YC is very similar to a university No it's not. It's not even remotely comparable. > There is a small group of companies that create the reputation on which everybody lives Also called luck. YC investors cannot articulate what made them successful, or else they'd have better results. Universities have decades of sustained output. They are not comparable. > you joining some arbitrary YC startup was a bad experience…

You're wrong. YC's returns far exceed the returns of the S&P 500. This is why LP's throw money at YC's funds. And secondly, I've been through YC. It is very apparent after many many group office hours, which startups are likely to be in the 6% unicorn group and which are not. You are correct the vast majority of YC companies are failures. However this does not preclude that the *mean* of YC outcomes is very very good. If Bill Gates were in a room with me and my friends the MEAN net worth would be tens of billions of dollars, the median would be less than a $100k.

Re: Some thoughts on my first YC Demo Day

#22

Post by ecb_penguin »

HPMOR wrote: post #21
ecb_penguin wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> YC is very similar to a university No it's not. It's not even remotely comparable. > There is a small group of companies that create the reputation on which everybody lives Also called luck. YC investors cannot articulate what made them successful, or else they'd have better results. Universities have decades of sustained output. They are not comparable. > you joining some arbitrary YC startup was a bad experience…

You're wrong. YC's returns far exceed the returns of the S&P 500. This is why LP's throw money at YC's funds. And secondly, I've been through YC. It is very apparent after many many group office hours, which startups are likely to be in the 6% unicorn group and which are not. You are correct the vast majority of YC companies are failures. However this does not preclude that the *mean* of YC outcomes is very very good…

> You're wrong

You thought YC was comparable to a university

> This is why LP's throw money at YC's funds

Yeah, we know hedge funds that throw money at things usually beat the SP500.

> It is very apparent after many many group office hours, which startups are likely to be in the 6% unicorn group and which are not

Group office hours and not actual revenue. Proving my point!

> However this does not preclude that the mean of YC outcomes is very very good

It absolutely does, lmao.

> If Bill Gates were in a room with me and my friends the MEAN net worth would be tens of billions of dollars, the median would be less than a $100k.

Yes, one person being successful, the rest failures would skew the results! Way to prove the point I'm making, lmao.

Re: Some thoughts on my first YC Demo Day

#23

Post by jasonfrost »

ecb_penguin wrote: post #22
HPMOR wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're wrong. YC's returns far exceed the returns of the S&P 500. This is why LP's throw money at YC's funds. And secondly, I've been through YC. It is very apparent after many many group office hours, which startups are likely to be in the 6% unicorn group and which are not. You are correct the vast majority of YC companies are failures. However this does not preclude that the *mean* of YC outcomes is very very good…

> You're wrong You thought YC was comparable to a university > This is why LP's throw money at YC's funds Yeah, we know hedge funds that throw money at things usually beat the SP500. > It is very apparent after many many group office hours, which startups are likely to be in the 6% unicorn group and which are not Group office hours and not actual revenue. Proving my point! > However this does not preclude that the me…

You agreed with his rephrasing of his original assertion

Re: Some thoughts on my first YC Demo Day

#24

Post by sillyfluke »

ecb_penguin wrote: post #19
HPMOR wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

YC is very similar to a university. There is a small group of companies that create the reputation on which everybody lives. The results are extremely exponentially distributed. So yes, it makes sense you joining some arbitrary YC startup was a bad experience. The average performance of a YC company is __phenomenal__, the median performance is poor.

> YC is very similar to a university No it's not. It's not even remotely comparable. > There is a small group of companies that create the reputation on which everybody lives Also called luck. YC investors cannot articulate what made them successful, or else they'd have better results. Universities have decades of sustained output. They are not comparable. > you joining some arbitrary YC startup was a bad experience…

> There is a small group of companies that create the reputation on which everybody lives

>> Also called luck.

Startup skill is a necessary but not sufficient condition for success. You also need luck. I doubt YC would claim otherwise.

Let's say each startup is a planet. Whoever gets hit with the most asteriods wins. Every conscious right decision and technical prowess that constitutes skill increases the size of the planet. The bigger the planet the more likely that more asteriods hit it. But space is a hig place, the largest planet is not guarenteed to have the most asteriod hits. A smaller planet could actually win. So it is with luck.

>YC investors cannot articulate what made them successful, or else they'd have better results.

Again, I doubt YC would contest this. But the power law so far has allowed them to be successful without having to guess correctly who in their pool would become the unicorn.

>You could flip a coin and beat YC

Where are you flipping this coin exactly? Are you flipping a coin in a pool containing all the startups in the world? If that's the case I'd like to see you take that bet. But if you flip a coin on Demo day, I'm sure you can beat some YC partners who additionally invest in a personal capacity.

Re: Some thoughts on my first YC Demo Day

#25

Post by pfhayes »

ecb_penguin wrote: post #19
HPMOR wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

YC is very similar to a university. There is a small group of companies that create the reputation on which everybody lives. The results are extremely exponentially distributed. So yes, it makes sense you joining some arbitrary YC startup was a bad experience. The average performance of a YC company is __phenomenal__, the median performance is poor.

> YC is very similar to a university No it's not. It's not even remotely comparable. > There is a small group of companies that create the reputation on which everybody lives Also called luck. YC investors cannot articulate what made them successful, or else they'd have better results. Universities have decades of sustained output. They are not comparable. > you joining some arbitrary YC startup was a bad experience…

Garry Tan posted some data recently on performance investing in demo day: https://x.com/garrytan/status/1927946812364574912

These returns outperform the S&P. Maybe these aren’t typical, but it’s pretty far from “you could flip a coin and beat YC”

Re: Some thoughts on my first YC Demo Day

#26

Post by echelon »

chickenzzzzu wrote: post #17
echelon wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is market efficiency. That's the very definition of delivering meaningful value. The more efficient the capital allocation is, the greater the benefit to the whole market. The only weirdness is that these are companies led by founders with "personalities". That's a weird variable to correct for.

How much more efficient is it to allocate capital to a group individuals who have been educated at institutions that produce an increasingly rigid type of thinker, who are all making the same hype driven products?

That's one type of signal and gradient. There are lots of others. One of the best is traction with paying customers. The great thing is that investment capital can try many strategies at once. As can innovation capital and labor.

Collectively we are water, filling all the cracks. Marbles, exploring all the slopes and curves. The fitness gradients of the universe are all in front of us. Follow the ones that make sense and that pull at you. We're all programmed differently enough that the whole space is being sampled, even in the weird places, the well-worn yet unweildy paths, and the completely non obvious domains.

The algorithm focuses energy when certainty crystalizes.

Re: Some thoughts on my first YC Demo Day

#28

Post by mkagenius »

Brajeshwar wrote: post #16
mkagenius wrote: post #2

Why is this top post on hn within one minute of posting?

I don’t know how or why, but I have seen this happen many times. Many of my submissions appear at the front within minutes of receiving 2-3 votes. I have no affiliation with YC, nor are my submissions.

Bruh, the amount of posts you are doing!

Re: Some thoughts on my first YC Demo Day

#29

Post by mkagenius »

TZubiri wrote: post #27
mkagenius wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, then he would keep posting whatever every day

Maybe karma/posts? So if you get 100upvotes per post, you get prio'd

It can't be that simple, it has to do something with the person who upvoted your post.

Re: Some thoughts on my first YC Demo Day

#30

Post by chickenzzzzu »

echelon wrote: post #26
chickenzzzzu wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much more efficient is it to allocate capital to a group individuals who have been educated at institutions that produce an increasingly rigid type of thinker, who are all making the same hype driven products?

That's one type of signal and gradient. There are lots of others. One of the best is traction with paying customers. The great thing is that investment capital can try many strategies at once. As can innovation capital and labor. Collectively we are water, filling all the cracks. Marbles, exploring all the slopes and curves. The fitness gradients of the universe are all in front of us. Follow the ones that make sense…

Everything you've said about humanity filling cracks and diving deeper into worthwhile problems is correct.

I do have one question though-- how many YC25 companies have more than $1 million in revenue?

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