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I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

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Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#81

Post by spwa4 »

palata wrote: post #54
aqsalose wrote: post #20

Many of the issues sound like issues coming from using improvised civilian hobbyist tech and doctrine being in its infancy. If current FPV drones are bit lackluster, it doesn't preclude 'next generation' that are purposefully developed for military use won't be useful. Also it sounds like the designation of "FPV drone" is specific to particular family of drones specific in current day and time, which may be something…

> Many of the issues sound like issues coming from using improvised civilian hobbyist tech I don't think it's improvised civilian hobbyist tech. They run autopilots that also fly professional drones and can fly planes. I think it's mostly that it has to be super cheap, otherwise it doesn't bring value (because other weapons are more efficient if you have more money). If your one-way drone costs 10k dollars, maybe it'…

Sadly I think that AI will make a very large difference here. And AI hardware that can control weapons is already hundreds of dollars and dropping fast, because a cell phone can do it.

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#82

Post by alphabettsy »

originalvichy wrote: post #77

FPV drones for combat are a hot flash in the pan. They have had a major effect for now, but naturally as these countermeasures evolve, so weakens their effect. I keep telling people that the terrain and the strategies that Russians use is the primary reason for the effectiveness. Mortars and artillery already handle the same requirements as the author says. The reason they are effective in 2024-25 is that the drip-dr…

> Most nations don’t have flat open fields where signals can reach far away drones unimpeded by line of sight for tx/rx.

Citation needed.

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#83

Post by originalvichy »

paganel wrote: post #32

> I would, first of all, recommend ensuring that troops in the field have well-trained organic mortar support with an ample supply of ammunition. That would not be possible because it has become basically impossible to bring in vehicles close to 5-10 kms of the front-lines because of the, well, drones. And you need to carry ammunition to those mortars with something, preferably not how the Vietnamese did it in the ju…

The author writes that he was not there for the fiber optic evolution. They have changed the game when it comes to these flat open terrains with heavy jamming. The quality control and cheap components issues won’t go away unless they are improved, which brings costs to a ”cheap” alternative. As I wrote in my comment above, walking/driving moving targets are still on the table, just not as feasible as in the early days without signals jamming.

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#84

Post by originalvichy »

gadders wrote: post #52
gooseus wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's because killing unarmed soldiers during war is not a war crime. Rule 3. All members of the armed forces of a party to the conflict are combatants, except medical and religious personnel. https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v1/rule3 Rule 47. Attacking persons who are recognized as hors de combat is prohibited. A person hors de combat is: (a) anyone who is in the power of an adverse party; (b) anyone w…

Pretty sure I've seen some that fall under Rule 47.

There’s regularly uploaded footage of clearly surrendering soldiers directed towards a safe zone to give up. Propaganda is propaganda, but it happens more often than we might think.

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#85

Post by originalvichy »

103e wrote: post #12

Don't drones have another advantage not mentioned here -- counter-battery against operators being more challenging?

Drone pilots regularly die due to the source of wireless signals being found. Especially in the built up areas where they cannot operate from a trench or bunker. It is a challenge but there have been methods for this for a while now and it has shown. Even recently there’s been reporting that priorities of some drone teams are now purely anti-pilot activities compared to other targets.

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#86

Post by LexGray »

bboygravity wrote: post #50
FirmwareBurner wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>So its not the reliability of drone that is an issue, its lack of proper assembly and QA Imagine what China can pull off here in case they're in a war.

China's fertility rate is 1. Even if they win the war, they still eventually will have lost.

China can set the fertility rate to whatever they like. It is tied to taxes and penalties. They can move the slider to make it fiscally impossible to be childless.

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#87

Post by throwawayffffas »

dfedbeef wrote: post #69

This is kind of a 'Muskets are cool but they take too long to reload' vibe. Yeah Ukraine isn't working with the best tech; it's a doctrine of desperation rather than preparation. But they discovered something effective and it will change the way wars are fought in the future.

> But they discovered something effective and it will change the way wars are fought in the future.

They didn't really. TOW's are a thing from the 70s. They are essentially the same thing, but instead of electric rotors they are using a rocket motor. Switchblades existed before this conflict too, if loitering is the measure we are going with.

It's a hacked together solution to a real problem they are having, lack of artillery shells and more reliable munitions. And well done to them.

But a country with the benefit of time and deep pockets is going to come up with more reliable, more effective solutions.

We are seeing the Russians turn to drones as well, but they also burnt their stockpiles of other weapons and are in an emergency too. And additionally they have also doubled their artillery shell production.

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#88

Post by originalvichy »

palata wrote: post #48

I see a lot of comments saying that "but the technology will improve". Sure, maybe. Or maybe it will be like Musk announcing what Teslas will be capable of in 6 months. We don't know, and the author doesn't pretend that they do. Don't forget that drones have been used in this war for years, and the vast majority of the drone industry has already pivoted to the military because it's easier to make money there. So it's…

I agree, and I also raised more points in my comment. The terrain of the flatlands between Ukraine and Russia is the main reason for their success. The same could be said for vast parts of the Middle-East. It’s easy to operate these on farmlands that go for kilometers.

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#89

Post by 103e »

throwawayffffas wrote: post #74
orthoxerox wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More challenging than counter-battery fire against artillery, which is basically a solved problem in warfare.

But not more challenging than counter battery against teams firing Javelins or other portable anti tank weapons.Or teams using Switchblades. FPVs are man portable guided munitions, not artillery. Pretty much all existing man portable guided anti tank weapons are better than FPVs at their job. And artillery is better than any of them at it's job. While FPVs can score kills they have minimal suppression effects, when a…

FPVs don't seem anti-tank replacement -- they do seem to have a role against soft targets ie against massing infantry, c2 nodes or suppression of enemy mortars. In this role, from a distance, they seem harder to suppress than the alternative, ie mortars.

Also these are immature tech... I suspect at least some of the issues identified will be mitigated in time.

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#90

Post by throwawayffffas »

avoutos wrote: post #67

Even if the technology improves and the economics of scale reduces the cost, I still don't buy the narrative that swarms of tiny kamikaze drones will radically change warfare. Aside from radio jamming, I have not seen an actual defense against a strong EMP. To defend against an EMP wiping out your drone swarm, you would have to invest in shielding etc which would remove them from the class of small cheap drones. Idk…

EMP weapons are expensive, and one shot. I can see the future of drone swarms, but we are a long way out.
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