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2025 Iberia Blackout Report [pdf]

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Re: 2025 Iberia Blackout Report [pdf]

#21
post #8
post #3

[flagged]

What I'm reading from that quote is that the issue wasn't renewables as such, but an issue of power generation reacting too quickly and too intensely to price fluctuations. "Renewables" only matter insofar as they're the sort of generation that, under the current regulatory regime, get to react to those pricing changes.

The report goes to great lengths to avoid certain words or phrases. The market failed here, it didn’t price in risk of grid collapse correctly.

Re: 2025 Iberia Blackout Report [pdf]

#22

It doesn't look like this report really identifies the root causes... I would like to see: "We have simulated the complete 200 and 400 kV grid of the iberian peninsula and western europe, and can reproduce the situation that occurred. Any one of the following changes would have prevented the issue, and we suggest implementing them all for redundancy. This simulation will be re-run every day from now on to identify fu…

The engineers knew exactly what’s going to happen, the report is politically redacted. Very unfortunate, but completely expected.

Re: 2025 Iberia Blackout Report [pdf]

#23
post #3

[flagged]

But the quote literally spells out it was market forces, not some instability in solar generation? Your other comment probably got flagged because it started with a huge straw man and had multiple unwarranted jabs in it.

True, but the market moves fast because renewables (or, more precisely, wind & solar) move fast.

There is not much fast trading to be done on a nuke/gas/coal/hydro powerplant ramping up or down, but there is a lot of instability (and thus market volatility) to be found in fast varying solar/wind conditions.

Re: 2025 Iberia Blackout Report [pdf]

#24

Reads very similar to some blackouts we had in Australia. Weakly connected grids with vast geographical distances leading to oscillations that took down the grid. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_South_Australian_blackout Completely solved with lithium based grid storage at key locations btw. This grid storage has also been massively profitable for it's owners https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hornsdale_Power_Reserve#R…

> nor are brief periods of multi-gigawatt draw/dumping as needed. Actually this is typically an issue for grid batteries. Spinning generators can easily briefly go to 10x the rated current for a second or so to smooth out big anomalies. Stationary batteries inverters can't do 10x current spikes ever - the max they can get to is more like 1.2x for a few seconds. That means you end up needing a lot of batteries to prov…

Seems like pumped hydro offers a nice compromise.

Re: 2025 Iberia Blackout Report [pdf]

#25
When skimming through the report I got to think of the oscillation problem in RIP routing protocol. Although it isn't the same thing, but it shows the complexity of the problem to anyone who thinks there is a single solution to it.

Re: 2025 Iberia Blackout Report [pdf]

#26
post #8
post #3

[flagged]

What I'm reading from that quote is that the issue wasn't renewables as such, but an issue of power generation reacting too quickly and too intensely to price fluctuations. "Renewables" only matter insofar as they're the sort of generation that, under the current regulatory regime, get to react to those pricing changes.

See the sibling comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44360082

Re: 2025 Iberia Blackout Report [pdf]

#27
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> nor are brief periods of multi-gigawatt draw/dumping as needed. Actually this is typically an issue for grid batteries. Spinning generators can easily briefly go to 10x the rated current for a second or so to smooth out big anomalies. Stationary batteries inverters can't do 10x current spikes ever - the max they can get to is more like 1.2x for a few seconds. That means you end up needing a lot of batteries to prov…

Seems like pumped hydro offers a nice compromise.

Fwiw the hornsdale battery linked above cost AUD$172 million and can provide 2000MW of equivalent inertia. Link: https://www.energymagazine.com.au/sa-approves-world-first-ba...

That equivalent inertia can only be done for short periods but that's exactly what grids need in stability - there's generally no lack of total generation, just a need to jump in and smooth out spikes.

You can't build a dam for that price, nor could you do it in under 100 days from contract signing as that battery was built. Batteries are definitely the answer here. The 'more spinning mass' answers don't make sense since Australia literally solved the above problem in a much cheaper way already.

Re: 2025 Iberia Blackout Report [pdf]

#28
post #18
post #3

[flagged]

Should’ve said ‘not enough spinning mass’ and it’d be perfectly fine for the politically correct and mean the same thing. This was highlighted as a risk for years and it finally materialized.

According to the operator report linked in another comment by leymed [1], the problem was not a lack of spinning mass (inertia) but voltage instability. From page 16 of the PDF:

The incident was NOT caused by a lack of system inertia. Rather, it was triggered by a voltage issue and the cascading disconnection of renewable generation plants, as previously indicated. Higher inertia would have only resulted in a slightly slower frequency decline. However, due to the massive generation loss caused by voltage instability, the system would still have been unrecoverable.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44360052

Re: 2025 Iberia Blackout Report [pdf]

#30
post #21
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I'm reading from that quote is that the issue wasn't renewables as such, but an issue of power generation reacting too quickly and too intensely to price fluctuations. "Renewables" only matter insofar as they're the sort of generation that, under the current regulatory regime, get to react to those pricing changes.

The report goes to great lengths to avoid certain words or phrases. The market failed here, it didn’t price in risk of grid collapse correctly.

That is a simple and great explanation.
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