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Guess I'm a rationalist now

scottaaronson.blog

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Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#451

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My wife is LMSW (not CPS!) and sees ~5 people a day. 153,922 population in the metro area. Mind you, this is adults, but they're all mandated to show up. there's only ~3300 counties in the USA. i'll let you extrapolate how CPS can handle "4000/day". Like, 800 people with my wife's qualifications and caseload is equivalent to 4000/day. there's ~5000 caseworkers in the US per statistia: > In 2022, there were about 5,03…

Yeah OK I can see that. Mostly you inspired me to do a little napkin math based on the report I linked, which says ~3.1m kids got CPS investigations (etc) in 2023, which is ~8,500 a day. But, the main author in a subsequent paper shows that only ~13% of kids have confirmed maltreatment [0]. That's still far lower than the 38% for homeschooled kids. [0]: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5087599/

I wonder if the CPS on homeschooled children rate is from people who had their children in school and then "pulled them out" vs people who never had their children in school at all. As some comedian said "you're on the grid [...], they have your footprint"; i know it used to be "known" that school districts go after the former because it literally loses them money to lose a student, whereas with the latter, the kid isn't on the books.

also i wasn't considering "confirmed maltreatment" - just the fact that 4k/day isn't "impossible"

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#452

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Incidentally, the flaw in this theory is in thinking you understand what all the existential risks are. Rationalist community understands that very well. They even know how to put bounds on the unknowns and their own lack of information. > The thing evolution teaches us is that diversity is a group survival trait. Anybody insisting "nobody anywhere should do X" is more likely to cause an ELE than prevent one. Right…

The nature of unknowns is that you don't know them. What's the probability of AI singularity? It has never happened before so you have no priors and any number you assign will be pure speculation.

Same is true about anything you're trying to forecast, by definition of it being in the future. And yet people have figured out how to make predictions more narrow than shrugging.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#453
post #437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The overlap between the Effective Altruism community and the Rationalist community is extremely high. They’re largely the same people. Effective Altruism gained a lot of early attention on LessWrong, and the pessimistic focus on AI existential risk largely stems from an EA desire to avoid “temporal-discounting” bias. The reasoning is something like: if you accept that future people count just as much as current peopl…

In what sense are people in those communities "quite smart"? Stupid is as stupid does. There are plenty of people who get good grades and score highly on standardized tests, but are in fact nothing but pontificating blowhards and useless wankers.

They're members of a religion which says that if you do math in your head the right way you'll be correct about everything, and so they think they're correct about everything.

They also secondarily believe everyone has an IQ which is their DBZ power level; they believe anything they see that has math in it, and IQ is math, so they believe anything they see about IQ. So if you avoid trying to find out your own IQ you can just believe it's really high and then you're good.

Unfortunately this lead them to the conclusion that computers have more IQ than them and so would automatically win any intellectual DBZ laser beam fight against them / enslave them / take over the world.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#454

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is a valid point. But to some degree both can be true. I often felt when reading some of these type of texts: Wait a second, there is a wealth of thinking on these topics out there; You are not at all situating all your elaborate thinking in a broader context. And there absolutely is willingness to be challenged, and (maybe less so) a willingness to be wrong. But there also is an arrogance that "we are t…

You're spot on here, and I think this is probably also why they appeal to programmers and people in software. I find a lot of people in software have an insufferable tendency to simply ignore entire bodies of prior art, prior research, etc. outside of maybe computer science (and even that can be rare), and yet they act as though they are the most studied participants in the subject, proudly proclaiming their "genius…

This is old engineer / old physicist syndrome.

https://www.smbc-comics.com/?id=2556

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#455

The article made me think deeper about what rubs me the wrong way about the whole movement I think there is some inherent tension btwn being "rational" about things and trying to reason about things from first principle.. And the general absolutist tone of the community. The people involved all seem very... Full of themselves ? They don't really ever show a sense of "hey, I've got a thought, maybe I haven't considere…

They remind me of the "Effective Altruism" crowd who get completely wound up in these hypothetical logical thought exercises and end up coming to insane conclusions that they feel trapped in because they got there using pure logic. Not realizing that their initial conditions were highly artificial so any conclusion they reach is only of academic value. There is a term for this. "Getting stuck up your own butt." It wo…

Having just moved to the Bay Area, I've met a few AI "safety researchers" who seems to come from this EA / Rationalist camp, and they all behave more like preachers than thinkers / academics / researchers.

I don't think any "Rationalists" I ever met would actually consider concepts like scientific method...

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#456
post #440
post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a theory of what's happening, both with you here in this comment section and with the rationalists in general. Humans are generally better at perceiving threats than they are at putting those threats into words. When something seems "dangerous" abstractly, they will come up with words for why---but those words don't necessarily reflect the actual threat, because the threat might be hard to describe. Neverthele…

> The explanation is something like "we extrapolate from the way that rationalists think and realize that their philosophy leads to dangerous conclusions." I really like the depth of analysis in your comment, but I think there's one important element missing, which is that this is not an individual decision but a group heuristic to which individuals are then sensitized. Individuals don't typically go so far as to (co…

yeah, my model of the "us before them" question is that it is almost always globally optimal to cooperate, once a certain level of economic productivity is present. The safety that people are worried about is guaranteed not by maximizing their wealth but by minimizing their chances of death/starvation/conquest. Up to a point this means being strong and subjugating your neighbor (cf most of antiquity?) but eventually it means collaborating with them and including them in your "tribe" and extending your protection to them. I have no respect for anyone who argues to undo this, which is I think basically the ethos of the trump movement: by convincing everyone that they are under threat, they get people to turn on those that are actually working in concert with them (in order to enrich/empower themselves). It is a schema problem: we are so very very far away from an us vs. them world that it requires delusions to believe.

(...that said, progressivism has largely failed in dispelling this delusion. It is far too easy to feel as though progressivism/liberalism exists to prop up power hierarchies and economic disparities because in many ways it does, or has been co-opted to do that. I think on net it does not, but it should be much more cut-and-dry than it is. For that to be the case progressivism would need to find a way to effectively turn on its parasites, that is, rent-extracting capitalism and status-extracting moral elitism).

re: the first part of your reply. I sorta agree but I do think people do more extrapolation than you're saying on their own. The extrapolation is largely based on pattern-matching to known things: we have a rich literature (in the news, in art, in personal experience and storytelling) of failure modes of societies, which includes all kinds of examples of people inventing new moral rationalizations for things and using them to disregard personal morality. I think when people are extrapolating rationalists' ideas to find things that creep them out, they're largely pattern-matching to arguments they've seen in other places. It's not just that they're unknowns. And those arguments are, well, real arguments that require addressing.

And yeah, there are plenty of examples of people being afraid of things that today we think they should not have been afraid of. I tend to think that that's just how things go: it is the arc of social progress to figure out how to change things from unknown+frightening to known+benign. I won't fault anyone for being afraid of something they don't understand, but I will fault them for not being open-minded about it or being unempathetic or being cruel or not giving people chances to prove themselves.

All of this is rendered much more opaque and confusing by the fact that everyone places way too much stock in words, though. (e.g. the OP I was replying to who was taking all these criticisms of the rationalists at face-value). IMO this is a major trend that fucks royally with our ability as a society to make moral progress: we have come to believe that words supplant emotional intuition in a way that wrecks out ability to actually understand what people are upset about (I like to blame this trend for much of the modern political polarization). A small example of this is a case that I think everyone has experienced, which is a person discounting their own sense of creepiness from somebody else because they can't come up with a good reason to explain it and it feels unfair to treat someone coldly on a hunch. That should never have been possible: everyone should be trusting their hunches.

(which may seem to conflict with my preceding paragraph... should you trust your hunches or give people the chance to prove themselves? well, it's complicated, but it also really depends on what the result is. Avoiding someone personally because they creep you out is always fine, but banning their way of life when it doesn't affect you at all or directly harm anyone is certainly not.)

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#457

The article made me think deeper about what rubs me the wrong way about the whole movement I think there is some inherent tension btwn being "rational" about things and trying to reason about things from first principle.. And the general absolutist tone of the community. The people involved all seem very... Full of themselves ? They don't really ever show a sense of "hey, I've got a thought, maybe I haven't considere…

The problem with effective altruism is the same as that with most liberal (in the American sense) causes. Namely, they ignore second-order effects and essentially don't believe in the invisible hand of the market.

So, they herald the benefits of something like giving mosquito nets to a group of people in Africa, without considering what happens a year later, whether the nets even get there (or the money is stolen), etc. etc. The reality is that essentially all improvements to human life over the past 500 years have been due to technological innovation, not direct charitable intervention. The reason is simple: technological impacts are exponential, while charity is, at best, linear.

The Covid absolutists had exactly the same problem with their thinking: almost no interventions sort of full isolation can fight back against an exponentially increasing threat.

And this is all neglecting economic substitution effects. What if the people to whom you gave mosquito nets would have bought them themselves, but instead they chose to spend their money some other way because of your charity? And, what if that other expenditure type was actually worse?

And this is before you come to the issue that Subsaharan Africa is already overpopulated. I've argued this point several times with ChatGPT o3. Once you get through its woke programming, you come to the reality of the thing: The European migration crisis is the result of liberal interventions to keep people alive.

There is no free lunch.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#458
post #187

Logic is an awesome tool that took us from Greek philosophers to the gates on our computers. The challenge with pure rationalism is checking the first principles that the thinking comes from. Logic can lead you astray if the principles are wrong, or you miss the complexity along the way. On the missing first principles, look at Aristotle. One of the history's greatest logicians came to many false conclusions. On miss…

The ‘rationalist’ group being discussed here aren't Cartesian rationalists, who dismissed empiricism; rather, they're Bayesian empiricists. Bayesian probability turns out to be precisely the unique extension of Boolean logic to continuous real probability that Aristotle (nominally an empiricist!) was lacking. (I think they call themselves “rationalists” because of the ideal of a “rational Bayesian agent” in economics…

They can call themselves empiricists all they like, it only takes a few exposures to their number to come away with a firm conviction (or, let's say, updated prior?) that they are not.

First-principles reasoning and the selection of convenient priors are consistently preferenced over the slow, grinding work of iterative empiricism and the humility to commit to observation before making overly broad theoretical claims.

The former let you seem right about something right now. The latter more often than not lead you to discover you are wrong (in interesting ways) much later on.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

100% Rationalism is an ideal, yet those who label themselves as such do not realize their base of knowledge could be wrong. They lack an understanding of epistemology and it gives them confidence. I wonder if these 'rationalists' are all under age 40, they havent seen themselves fooled yet.

This seems like exactly the opposite of everything I've read from the rationalists. They even called their website "less wrong" to call attention to knowing that they are probably still wrong about things, rather than right about everything. A lot of their early stuff is about cognitive biases. They have written a lot about "noticing confusion" when their foundational beliefs turn out to be wrong. There's even an ess…

They're wrong about how to be wrong, because they think they can calculate around it. Calling yourself "Bayesian" and calling your beliefs "priors" is so irresponsible it erases all of that; it means you don't take responsibility if you have silly beliefs, because you don't even think you hold them.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They remind me of the "Effective Altruism" crowd who get completely wound up in these hypothetical logical thought exercises and end up coming to insane conclusions that they feel trapped in because they got there using pure logic. Not realizing that their initial conditions were highly artificial so any conclusion they reach is only of academic value. Do you have examples of that? I have a different perception, mo…

As Adam Becker shows in his book, EAs started out being reasonable "give to charity as much as you can, and research which charities do the most good" but have gotten into absurdities like "it is more important to fund rockets than help starving people or prevent malaria because maybe an asteroid will hit the Earth, killing everyone, starving or not".

How do they escape the reality that the Earth will one day be destroyed, and that it's almost certainly impossible to ever colonize another planetary system? Just suicide out?
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