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Guess I'm a rationalist now

scottaaronson.blog

421–430 of 1001 posts

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#421
post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read the whole tree of responses under this comment and I could only convince myself that when people have no arguments they try to make you look bad. Most of criticisms are just "But they think they are better than us !" and the rest is "But sometimes they are wrong !" I don't know about the community and couldn't care less but their writings have brought me some almost life saving fresh air in how to think about…

Here's a theory of what's happening, both with you here in this comment section and with the rationalists in general. Humans are generally better at perceiving threats than they are at putting those threats into words. When something seems "dangerous" abstractly, they will come up with words for why---but those words don't necessarily reflect the actual threat, because the threat might be hard to describe. Neverthele…

What creeps me out is that I have no idea of their theory of power: How will they achieve their aims?

Maybe they want to do it in a way I’d consider just: By exercising their rights as individuals in their personal domains and effectively airing their arguments in the public sphere to win elections.

But my intuition is they think democracy and personal rights of the non-elect are part of the problem to rationalize around and over.

Would genuinely love to read some Rationalist discourse on this question.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#422

This is vibe-based, but I think the Rationalists get more vitriol than they deserve. Upon reflecting, my hypothesis for this is threefold: 1. They are a community —they have an in-group, and if you are not one of them you are by-definition in the out-group. People tend not to like being in other peoples' out-groups. 2. They have unusual opinions and are open about them. People tend not to like people who express opin…

> This is vibe-based

You mean an empirical observation

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#423
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I don't know or really care about Rationalism or whatever. But I took Aaronson's advice and read Zvi Mowshowitz' Childhood and Education #9: School is Hell [0], and while I share many of the criticisms (and cards on the table I also had pretty bad school experiences), I would have a hard time jumping onto this bus. One point is that when Mowshowitz is dispelling the argument that abuse rates are much higher for…

Cherry-picking friendly studies is one of the go-to moves of the rationalist community. You can convince a lot of people that you've done your homework when the medium is "an extremely blog post with a bunch of studies attached" even if the studies themselves aren't representative of reality.

Is there any reason you are singling out the rationalist community? Is that not a common failure mode of all groups and all people?

BTW, this isn't a defensive posture on my part: I am not plugged in enough to even have an opinion on any rationalist community, much less identify as one.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#424
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I don't know or really care about Rationalism or whatever. But I took Aaronson's advice and read Zvi Mowshowitz' Childhood and Education #9: School is Hell [0], and while I share many of the criticisms (and cards on the table I also had pretty bad school experiences), I would have a hard time jumping onto this bus. One point is that when Mowshowitz is dispelling the argument that abuse rates are much higher for…

My wife is LMSW (not CPS!) and sees ~5 people a day. 153,922 population in the metro area. Mind you, this is adults, but they're all mandated to show up. there's only ~3300 counties in the USA. i'll let you extrapolate how CPS can handle "4000/day". Like, 800 people with my wife's qualifications and caseload is equivalent to 4000/day. there's ~5000 caseworkers in the US per statistia: > In 2022, there were about 5,03…

Yeah OK I can see that. Mostly you inspired me to do a little napkin math based on the report I linked, which says ~3.1m kids got CPS investigations (etc) in 2023, which is ~8,500 a day. But, the main author in a subsequent paper shows that only ~13% of kids have confirmed maltreatment [0]. That's still far lower than the 38% for homeschooled kids.

[0]: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5087599/

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#425
post #186
post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rationalists have always rubbed me the wrong way too but your argument against AI doomerism is weird. If you care about first principles, how about the precautionary principle? "Maybe it's actually benign" is not a good argument for moving ahead with potentially world ending technology.

The precautionary principle is stupid. If people had followed it then we'd still be living in caves.

I take it you think the survivorship bias principle and the anthropic principle are also stupid?

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#426

The article made me think deeper about what rubs me the wrong way about the whole movement I think there is some inherent tension btwn being "rational" about things and trying to reason about things from first principle.. And the general absolutist tone of the community. The people involved all seem very... Full of themselves ? They don't really ever show a sense of "hey, I've got a thought, maybe I haven't considere…

I am very tense about defining oneself as rationalist. For many aspects, I find it too first degree to be of any interest. At all.

And I have this narrative ringing in my head as soon as the word pops.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42897871

You can search HN with « zizians » for more info and depth.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#427
post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read the whole tree of responses under this comment and I could only convince myself that when people have no arguments they try to make you look bad. Most of criticisms are just "But they think they are better than us !" and the rest is "But sometimes they are wrong !" I don't know about the community and couldn't care less but their writings have brought me some almost life saving fresh air in how to think about…

Here's a theory of what's happening, both with you here in this comment section and with the rationalists in general. Humans are generally better at perceiving threats than they are at putting those threats into words. When something seems "dangerous" abstractly, they will come up with words for why---but those words don't necessarily reflect the actual threat, because the threat might be hard to describe. Neverthele…

No offense, but this way of thinking is the domain of comic book supervillains. "I must destroy the world in order to save it." Morality is only holding me back from maximizing the value of the human race 1,000 or 1,000,000 years from now type nonsense.

This sort of reasoning sounds great from 1000 feet up, but the longer you do it the closer you get to "I need to kill nearly all current humans to eliminate genetic diseases and control global warming and institute an absolute global rationalist dictatorship to prevent wars or humanity is doomed over the long run".

Or you get people who are working in a near panic to bring about godlike AI because they think that once the AI singularity happens the new AI God will look back in history and kill anybody who didn't work their hardest to bring it into existence because they assume an infinite mind will contain infinite cruelty.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#428
post #425
post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The precautionary principle is stupid. If people had followed it then we'd still be living in caves.

I take it you think the survivorship bias principle and the anthropic principle are also stupid?

Don't presume to know what I think.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the rationalists have failed to humanize themselves. They let their thinkpieces define them entirely, but a studiously considered think piece is a narrow view into a person. If rationalists were more publicly vulnerable, people might find them more publicly relatable.

Scott Aaronson is probably the most publicly-vulnerable academic I've ever found, at least outside of authors who write memoirs about childhood trauma. I think a lot of other prominent rationalists also put a lot of vulnerability out there.

He didn't take the rationalist label until today. Him doing so might help their image.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#430
post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read the whole tree of responses under this comment and I could only convince myself that when people have no arguments they try to make you look bad. Most of criticisms are just "But they think they are better than us !" and the rest is "But sometimes they are wrong !" I don't know about the community and couldn't care less but their writings have brought me some almost life saving fresh air in how to think about…

Feels like "they are wrong and smug" is enough reason to dislike the movement

Bashir: Even when they're neither?

Garak: Especially when they're neither.

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