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Guess I'm a rationalist now

scottaaronson.blog

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Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#191

Post by bilbo0s »

nradov wrote: post #183
impossiblefork wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually think the people developing AI might well not get rich off it. Instead, unless there's a single winner, we will probably see the knowledge on how to train big LLMs and make them perform well diffuse throughout a large pool of AI researchers, with the hardware to train models reasonably close to the SotA becoming more quite accessible. I think the people who will benefit will be the owners of ordinary but h…

When railroads were first being built across the continental USA, those companies also had high valuations (for the time). Most of them ultimately went bankrupt or were purchased for a fraction of their peak valuation. But the tracks remained, and many of those routes are still in use today.

Just checked.

The problem is the railroads were purchased by the winners. Who turned out to be the existing winners. Who then went on to continue to win.

On the one hand, I guess that's just life here in reality.

On the other, man, reality sucks sometimes.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#192

Post by pja »

jrm4 wrote: post #184

My eyes started to glaze over after a bit; so what I'm getting here is there a group that calls themselves "Rationalists," but in just about every externally meaningful sense, they're smelling like -- perhaps not a cult, but certainly a lot of weird insider/outsider talk that feels far from rational?

Capital r-Rationalism definitely bleeds into cult-like behaviour, even if they haven’t necessarily realised that they’re radicalising themselves.

They’ve already had a splinter rationalist group go full cult, right up to & including the consequent murders & shoot-out with the cops flameout: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zizians

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#193

Post by BurningFrog »

contrarian1234 wrote: post #9

The article made me think deeper about what rubs me the wrong way about the whole movement I think there is some inherent tension btwn being "rational" about things and trying to reason about things from first principle.. And the general absolutist tone of the community. The people involved all seem very... Full of themselves ? They don't really ever show a sense of "hey, I've got a thought, maybe I haven't considere…

An unfortunate fact is that people who are very annoying can also be right...

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#194

Post by pja »

Scott Aaronson, the man who turned scrupulosity into a weapon against his own psyche is a capital R rationalist?

Yeah, this surprises absolutely nobody.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#195

Post by aredox »

contrarian1234 wrote: post #9

The article made me think deeper about what rubs me the wrong way about the whole movement I think there is some inherent tension btwn being "rational" about things and trying to reason about things from first principle.. And the general absolutist tone of the community. The people involved all seem very... Full of themselves ? They don't really ever show a sense of "hey, I've got a thought, maybe I haven't considere…

They are the perfectly rational people who await the arrival of a robot god...

Note they are a mostly American phenomenon. To me, that's a consequence of the oppressive culture of "cliques" in American schools. I would even suppose it is a second-order effect of the deep racism of American culture: the first level is to belong to the "whites" or the "blacks", but when it is not enough, you have to create your own subgroup with its identity, pride, conferences... To make yourself even more betterer than the others.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#196

Post by ausbah »

radicalbyte wrote: post #22

* 20 somethings who are clearly on spectrum * Group are "special" * Centered around a charismatic leader * Weird sex stuff Guys we have a cult!

so many of the people i’ve read in these rationalist groups sound like they need a hug and therapy

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#197

Post by bilbo0s »

parpfish wrote: post #155
philipov wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yep, the biggest threat posed by AI comes from the capitalists who want to own it.

Or the propagandists that use it

They won't be allowed to use it unless they serve the capitalists who own it.

It's not social media. It's a model the capitalists train and own. Best the rest of us will have access to are open source ones. It's like the difference between trying to go into court backed by google searches as opposed to Lexis/Nexis. You're gonna have a bad day with the judge.

Here's hoping the open source stuff gets trained on quality data rather than reddit and 4chan. Given how the courts are leaning on copyright, and lack of vetted data outside copyright holder remit, I'm not sanguine about the chances of parity long term.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#198

Post by Seattle3503 »

contrarian1234 wrote: post #9

The article made me think deeper about what rubs me the wrong way about the whole movement I think there is some inherent tension btwn being "rational" about things and trying to reason about things from first principle.. And the general absolutist tone of the community. The people involved all seem very... Full of themselves ? They don't really ever show a sense of "hey, I've got a thought, maybe I haven't considere…

I think the rationalists have failed to humanize themselves. They let their thinkpieces define them entirely, but a studiously considered think piece is a narrow view into a person. If rationalists were more publicly vulnerable, people might find them more publicly relatable.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#199

Post by verall »

genewitch wrote: post #180
camgunz wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I don't know or really care about Rationalism or whatever. But I took Aaronson's advice and read Zvi Mowshowitz' Childhood and Education #9: School is Hell [0], and while I share many of the criticisms (and cards on the table I also had pretty bad school experiences), I would have a hard time jumping onto this bus. One point is that when Mowshowitz is dispelling the argument that abuse rates are much higher for…

My wife is LMSW (not CPS!) and sees ~5 people a day. 153,922 population in the metro area. Mind you, this is adults, but they're all mandated to show up. there's only ~3300 counties in the USA. i'll let you extrapolate how CPS can handle "4000/day". Like, 800 people with my wife's qualifications and caseload is equivalent to 4000/day. there's ~5000 caseworkers in the US per statistia: > In 2022, there were about 5,03…

37% of children obviously do not experience a CPS investigation before age 18.

Re: Guess I'm a rationalist now

#200

Post by NoGravitas »

parpfish wrote: post #171
js8 wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The people involved all seem very... Full of themselves ? Kinda like Mensa?

When I was a kid I wanted to be in Mensa because being smart was a big part of my identity and I was constantly seeking external validation. I’m so glad I didn’t join because being around the types of adults that make being smart their identity surely would have had some corrosive effects

Personally, I subscribe to Densa, the journal of the Low-IQ Society.
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