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The Gentle Singularity

blog.samaltman.com

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Re: The Gentle Singularity

#551

Post by pj_mukh »

_DeadFred_ wrote: post #549
pj_mukh wrote: post #490

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one's trying to rewrite anything. "Californians, used to spending crazy high prices for property" Please dig into why that statement is true and re-read your parent statement. Your analysis can't just abruptly stop there. It all goes back to housing supply.

It all goes back to tech. Tech jobs grow in the area and pay significantly higher than previous jobs. Those jobs increase people moving to the area by dramatic, non-traditional numbers outpacing how the area previously approached housing, and give the people much more buying power than the current residents, pushing those people (including me) out. The housing supply problem goes back to... tech. No community is prep…

"No community is prepared for a gold rush to happen, nor has housing plans in place to accommodate it."

laughs in Tokyo/Singapore. Sorry, I want to feel bad for incumbents in the area, but they've worked hard to create this situation, especially the landlords. People gaining wage power is a GOOD thing and arguing against it is an insane political choice even if you are in the majority.

The rest is just basic agglomeration theory [1]. You are arguing against gravity making things going down. People will always come together since Vienna, since Baghdad, and the productivity gains are supposed to be good for the country again, if it wasn't for landlord incumbents. The solution seems obvious: remove incumbent controls.

There are only one people who are truly indigenous to the Bay Area (and I'm guessing they aren't on HN right now). Everyone else came as part of a proverbial gold rush, going back to 1849, so complaining about the only gold rush that came after you is not a morally substantive position. Your complaint should be against rent-seeking capital and their political power, not immigrants (national nor international, rich nor poor).

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economies_of_agglomeration

P.S: Just to be clear, I'm not advocating for displacement. You can have gentrification and growth without displacement, what you have to accept (nay embrace) is rapid change. If you don't, displacement is inevitable.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#552

Post by LtWorf »

theptip wrote: post #550
LtWorf wrote: post #543

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cost of AI is training it. If you can't do it yourself (and you can't), you don't decide what the weights are.

You can steer an AI without training it. It’s called Prompt Engineering. It doesn’t give you full control, but I believe it gives you enough control to do what I proposed for most consumers.

Prompt engineering is just the new google fu, but if google wants to ban something it won't be there and if they want to bump something it will be bumped.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#553

Post by nandhinianand »

nradov wrote: post #432
Rooster61 wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's difficult for me to call those wages "real" when medical costs have been so absurdly gouged to eat up those contributions. Those increases have had no real impact on the average consumer, and is profoundly awful for those without access to employment that provides that insurance

That's not entirely accurate. Wages are real enough whether paid out as cash, or paid to a third party for the employee's benefit. Some medical costs are unreasonably inflated, but on the other hand much of the cost increase reflects greater capabilities. We can effectively treat many conditions today that would have been a death sentence in 1980, but some of those cutting edge treatments cost >$1M per patient. That…

I won't attempt to make the counter-argument on account of being a stranger to America and it's healthcare system, but would point to the existence of this, just in case you haven't seen it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CeDOQpfaUc8

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#554

Post by iNic »

quonn wrote: post #370
iNic wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess that depends on what you think is coherent. A key finding is that the larger the network the more coherent the representation becomes. One example is larger networks merge the same concept across different languages into a single concept (as humans do). The addition circuits are also fairly easy to interpret.

> merge the same concept It's doing compression which does not mean it's coherent. > The addition circuits are also fairly easy to interpret. The addition circuits make no sense whatsoever. It's doing great at guessing that's all.

I am curious, what would you count as coherent? I think it is absolutely insane that we can open and understand what are essentially alien intelligences at all!

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#555

Post by spot »

sgt101 wrote: post #296
trashtester wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "next token prediction" is a distraction. That's not where the interesting part of an AI model happens. If you think of the tokenization near the end as a serializer, something like turning an object model into json, you get a better understanding. The interesting part of a an OOP program is not in the json, but what happens in memory before the json is created. Likewise, the interesting parts of a neural net mod…

>which is in many ways similar to our subconscious thinking this is just made up. - we don't have any useful insight on human subconscious thinking. - we don't have any useful insight on the structures that support human subconscious thinking. - the mechanisms that support human cognition that we do know about are radically different from the mechanisms that current models use. For example we know that biological neu…

not just made up: https://www.quantamagazine.org/self-taught-ai-shows-similari...

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#556

Post by nyc_data_geek1 »

anothermathbozo wrote: post #123
nyc_data_geek1 wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He is purely a hype man, and many people are too gullible/invested/dumb to see it, call him on it, or care.

What difference does that make at this stage of things?

All the difference. The difference between what is real, what is possible, what is plausible, what is feasible, and what is mass delusion.

"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#557

Post by dievskiy »

le-mark wrote: post #351
throw310822 wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cool things down a bit? That's what you call "we're already in the accelerating part of the singularity, past the event horizon, the future progress curve looks vertical, the past one looks flat"? :D

If any of that were true, then the llm would be actively involved in advancing themselves, or assisting humans in a meaningful way in the endeavor, which they’re not so far as I can tell.

Maybe Sam meant it more generally - humanity has achieved a lot over past thousands of years, and now we are finally close to interacting with systems that are more capable intellectually.
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