491–500 of 557 posts
I'm feeling a bit cheated it's 2025 and I just bought a brand new car that does not drive itself and runs on dead dinosaurs.
https://www.snexplores.org/article/explainer-where-fossil-fu...
> Scientific progress is the biggest driver of overall progress > There will be very hard parts like whole classes of jobs going away, but on the other hand the world will be getting so much richer so quickly that we’ll be able to seriously entertain new policy ideas we never could before Real wages haven’t risen since 1980. Wealth inequality has. Most people have much less political power than they used to as wealth…
> Real wages haven’t risen since 1980. Do people really believe that? I think either people have too rosy view of 80s or consider that real wages should also adjust for lifestyle inflation.
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And self driving cars. Real time ray tracing. WiFi. Cloud computing. starlink. Crispr. mRNA vaccines. Blockchain. Voice assistants.
All the significant tech on that list is still "two years away from being two years away".
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I hate to enter this discussion, but learning based on a small number of examples is called few-shot learning, and is something that GPT-3 could already do. It was considered a major breakthrough at the time. The fact that we call gradient descent "learning" doesn't mean that what happens with a well-placed prompt is not "learning" in the colloquial sense. Try it: you can teach today's frontier reasoner models to do…
Are you talking about teaching in the context window or fine tuning? If it is the context window, then you are limited to the size of said window and everything is lost on the next run. Learning is memory, what you are describing is an llm being the main character in the movie Momento, I.e. no longterm memories past what was trained in the last training run.
> Scientific progress is the biggest driver of overall progress > There will be very hard parts like whole classes of jobs going away, but on the other hand the world will be getting so much richer so quickly that we’ll be able to seriously entertain new policy ideas we never could before Real wages haven’t risen since 1980. Wealth inequality has. Most people have much less political power than they used to as wealth…
Sure it will, as far as Altman is concerned. To make the whole post make sense, add "... for the rich" where appropriate.
> Already we live with incredible digital intelligence, and after some initial shock, most of us are pretty used to it. Very quickly we go from being amazed that AI can generate a beautifully-written paragraph to wondering when it can generate a beautifully-written novel; It was probably around 7 years ago when I first got interested in machine learning. Back then I followed a crude YouTube tutorial which consisted o…
What's your take on Anthropic's 'Tracing the thoughts of a large language model'? [0] > To write the second line, the model had to satisfy two constraints at the same time: the need to rhyme (with "grab it"), and the need to make sense (why did he grab the carrot?). Our guess was that Claude was writing word-by-word without much forethought until the end of the line, where it would make sure to pick a word that rhyme…
Me personally, I expect to see LLMs to be a mere part of whatever will be invented later.
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Nuclear plants have other long tails costs, decommissioning and waste containment.
So do coal plants. Interestingly approximately nobody seems to be worried about the thousands of coal ash ponds leaching radioactive material, toxic heavy metals and teratogenic compounds into ground water on a regular basis - while storing spent fuel element in a salt mine thousands of miles away engenders outrage…
Many things are cheap when you ignore externalities.
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Citation needed, my understanding was that housing prices are being driven up by real estate owners/agencies buying tons of property to either rent at extortionary prices or sit on until they sell for a higher price to the next sucker. Also stuff like the RealPage scandal where they simply illegally collude: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41330007 I think the idea of a law that only allows a limited number of o…
Housing prices are being driven up by the fact that we don't build enough housing. That should be the end of the discussion. What you describe is just a symptom of not having enough housing. If we just built more housing then there wouldn't be any business angle for the corporations buying up housing.
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You at least had the option of buying one that did not run on dead dinosaurs.
Dead pedestrians are not a suitable replacement.
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No, they haven't , at least nowhere near the scope of the hype. The promise in the early 2010s was that in 10-20 years, human driving would be obsolete, that professional drivers would be out of a job, and that all land-based transportation would be overhauled. None of this is even close to happening. Waymo is impressive tech, for sure, but what they're proving is that this is just not currently solvable as a general…
The optimists got the timeline wrong but they were closer to the truth than those who said it would never happen. I have no idea how close AGI is but there is clearly no AI winter around the corner as some HNers have been predicting[0]. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23886325
I'll believe self-driving is solved when I can order an automated ride to a BLM/forest service dirt road I only have GPS coordinates for and that has cell service on the hilltop only.