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The Cheapest Generation

theatlantic.com

201–210 of 213 posts

Re: The Cheapest Generation

#201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quibbling about the exact source of inflation is irrelevant unless you want to claim that people are not buying cars or houses because they are buying health care instead. And that is clearly not the case. According to government statistics [1], nearly one-third of those lacking health care coverage in the United States are young adults. The unemployment rate among this cohort is over 15 percent, and much higher if o…

People are buying cars and houses, as you'd know if you read my link. We currently have more cars/houses than ever before. If inflation-adjusted compensation were down, this fact would pose a paradox and suggest we are incorrectly measuring inflation - however, the paradox is easily resolved by looking at total comp.

The AEI is a laughingstock in economic circles, and the paper you cite is a good example of the reason why. The authors do not say that more people are buying cars and houses, but argue that there is greater "housing consumption", a catchall term they use to cover rentals along with the accumulated value of detritus like hand-me-down appliances. The authors also redefine the idea of conventional housing to start including things like mobile homes and trailer parks in the mid-1980s.

Their "income" figures are equally shoddy since they include government transfers through programs like food stamps as part of the "market income" of poorer people by calculating the value of these products and services as if they were bought using salary. Leaving aside the morass of problems with the way this approach leads to grossly inflated aggregate income and is clearly intended to deflect from more accurate claims that most market wages are stagnant, their approach is totally off-topic in any discussion about the state of the labor market: what kind of jobs are available to young people; what those jobs pay in salaries and benefits; and what people can afford to purchase given those incomes.

You should also ask yourself why the authors go through such contortions to count things like rentals as purchases and IMPLY that housing is clearly affordable when there is a perfectly straightforward and universally-applicable measure of real estate affordability in the rent/buy ratio? The only reason the AEI does not use this statistic is that it is inconvenient, showing that housing costs have risen significantly across the United States in response to the housing bubble which started in the 1990s, Prices have still not collapsed even close the levels enjoyed by previous generations. So housing is NOT more affordable for people today than in the past. It is in fact significantly more expensive pretty much everywhere except Las Vegas:

http://money.cnn.com/real_estate/storysupplement/price_to_re...

Finally, since you explicitly make the claim that health care coverage has improved in your MRI/backpain comment and suggest that this is what people are spending their money on instead of cars and houses, it is interesting that the AEI paper explicitly excludes health care costs in its panegyric on how well-off American workers are, noting that "we exclude from consumption out-of-pocket health expenses because they are not closely tied to well-being." In other words, they realized that including basic health care expenses as income makes people relatively worse off now as compared to the past.

On a final point -- it is worth commenting that your other link to the labor participation rate shows the exact opposite of what you claim: the average labor participation rate is visibly much higher throughout most the 1980s than at present, except for a brief crash during the 1982 recession. If 2008 was anything like 1982, the participation rate now would be well into the 60s again and growing.

Re: The Cheapest Generation

#202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are buying cars and houses, as you'd know if you read my link. We currently have more cars/houses than ever before. If inflation-adjusted compensation were down, this fact would pose a paradox and suggest we are incorrectly measuring inflation - however, the paradox is easily resolved by looking at total comp.

The AEI is a laughingstock in economic circles, and the paper you cite is a good example of the reason why. The authors do not say that more people are buying cars and houses, but argue that there is greater "housing consumption", a catchall term they use to cover rentals along with the accumulated value of detritus like hand-me-down appliances. The authors also redefine the idea of conventional housing to start incl…

The authors do not say that more people are buying cars and houses, but argue that there is greater "housing consumption"...

See table 1 & 2. Housing consumption is measured in terms of square footage, number of rooms, fraction of homes owning a car, and other similar objective properties.

I didn't claim housing was "more affordable" (whatever that means), I claimed people have more of it.

Re: The Cheapest Generation

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The AEI is a laughingstock in economic circles, and the paper you cite is a good example of the reason why. The authors do not say that more people are buying cars and houses, but argue that there is greater "housing consumption", a catchall term they use to cover rentals along with the accumulated value of detritus like hand-me-down appliances. The authors also redefine the idea of conventional housing to start incl…

The authors do not say that more people are buying cars and houses, but argue that there is greater "housing consumption"... See table 1 & 2. Housing consumption is measured in terms of square footage, number of rooms, fraction of homes owning a car, and other similar objective properties. I didn't claim housing was "more affordable" (whatever that means), I claimed people have more of it.

Thaumaturgy's point was simple: rental costs have increased relative to wages and housing prices have increased relative to wages. It is no mystery why fewer young people are able to purchase real estate now than in the past. Or cars.

At worst your argument and sources conflate wages and income and standard of living in order to make insinuations that are statistically wrong. At best they can be interpreted as making the fairly non-controversial claim that the AGGREGATE standard of living in America has improved over the last 30 years, despite the fact that there has been a clear reduction in the relative purchasing power and affluence of younger Americans over the last 10 years.

Re: The Cheapest Generation

#204
post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "We didn't make our goals this quarter, and many in our industry also showed reduced sales numbers. It is clear that we need to reduce our expectations. Next quarter's numbers will be lower, and shareholders are just going to have to take a loss." Uh, they do say that all the time . I tend to agree with the other poster: our expectations are too high. It's a product of having witnessed one of the greatest runups in…

I know a lot of professional people in my generation, and I know of only a few that have anything like what you describe. One managed to land a six-figure job in Kentucky , one of the lowest cost of living places that was largely passed over by the housing bubble. The major reason he's well-off is that his house was affordable and he went to a lower priced university and didn't need much in the way of student loans.…

Agreed, tatsuke95's comment is ridiculously out of proportion. My friends are all middle class, with two exceptions who are upper middle class -- myself & my husband, and another married couple who run a software business like we do. They have an expensive house and a very nice car, but they live well within their means and save a lot of money (and they worked their asses off to earn that money). They certainly don't have a vacation home. My husband and I just bought a house which cost just less than our biz's gross receipts last year, but we got a 30-year mortgage and we don't even own a car. We do travel fairly often and for longer periods (up to a month) but it's almost always a tax write-off, organized around conferences.

And, that other couple aside, we're by far the most extravagant people in our friend group (designers, developers, creative class all). Only a couple of our middle class friends own anything, much less expect to own two houses and cars.

The specter of wide swathes of middle class people who "expect" two houses and cars and European vacations is simply a strawman argument, conjured up to "prove" that these people "deserve what they get."

Re: The Cheapest Generation

#205

I'm fairly sure the reason 21-30 year olds aren't buying houses and cars in droves isn't because they are "quirky eco-conscious individuals" that your marketing "isn't speaking to"... I'm pretty sure its mostly because: 1: Many of them don't have jobs (or have low-paying jobs) because of the economy. 2: Many of them watched their parents drown in debt from houses and cars they bought but couldn't really afford 3: Stu…

#3 is underappreciated. We have a generation that's going to be slaving away for years to pay off large student loan debts that are at high interest rates compared to a mortgage. Naturally they're going to be averse to wasting money on an overpriced car when they could be paying a student loan instead, which has a guaranteed rate of return of 5-10% (depending on the terms of the loan), tax-free.

You are right. As a dropout, I only learned recently how many of my friends were struggling under monthly student loan debt of $50-80k with payments of $500-800. There goes car money, poof, or 20-45% of a mortgage payment for a reasonably nice home in an urban area like Philadelphia.

Re: The Cheapest Generation

#206
post #112

How can we reconcile "everybody is poor now" with all the teenage millionaires and 22 year olds moving to California for six figure salaries? Is everything we read here such an extreme case that the rest of the world has no chance of catching up or competing (except in the überextreme sport of Startup)?

It all makes sense when you realize that tech/startup media is Cosmo and People for nerds.

Re: The Cheapest Generation

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Minimum wage is a silly thing to look at. In 1980, 10% of men and 22% of women earned min wage. In 2010, this fell to 5% and 7%. http://www.statista.com/statistics/185536/share-of-workers-p... Further, a look at hard data (for both the bottom 20% and the middle 20%) shows that people today are more likely to own a car than in 1981, and have more house per person than in 1989 (no data on square footage exists in 1981)…

Upvoted you for being the only response with numbers so far, even though I disagree with your conclusion. The average price of a new car in 1980 was $7,200 [1]. In 2010, it's $28,400 [2]. That's an almost 300% increase. Federal minimum wage in 1980 was $3.10 [3]. In 2010, it's $7.25, a 130% increase. That's lagging pretty far behind new car prices. You point out that fewer people are earning minimum wage now than in…

To take your increase in traditional unemployment numbers and build on it:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_incarceration_timeline-...

Incarceration rates: it's a hockey stick! Incarcerated people are all unemployed, and most of them, if in the job pool, are likely to be in the minimum wage or similar bracket.

The equivalent of a $3.80 minimum wage in 1980 is also nearly $9 today with inflation, so the group of true "minimum wage" workers is much larger for yet another reason.

Re: The Cheapest Generation

#208
This paragraph in the article seems off:

   Education is the “obvious outlet for the money Millennials can spend,” Perry Wong, 
   the director of research at the Milken Institute, told us, noting that if young 
   people invest less in physical things like houses, they’ll have more to invest 
   in themselves. “In the past, housing was the main vehicle for investment, but 
   education is also a vehicle.” In an ideas economy, up-to-date knowledge could 
   be a more nimble and valuable asset than a house.
I don't buy this at all. I think he may be right about Millenials investing in themselves, but I think he's wrong about it being money. Millenials are generally internet natives. They don't need to spend money on self improvement, just time, because so many educational resources are free and readily available on the internet and the quality of those resources is only improving with time.

Re: The Cheapest Generation

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The authors do not say that more people are buying cars and houses, but argue that there is greater "housing consumption"... See table 1 & 2. Housing consumption is measured in terms of square footage, number of rooms, fraction of homes owning a car, and other similar objective properties. I didn't claim housing was "more affordable" (whatever that means), I claimed people have more of it.

Thaumaturgy's point was simple: rental costs have increased relative to wages and housing prices have increased relative to wages. It is no mystery why fewer young people are able to purchase real estate now than in the past. Or cars. At worst your argument and sources conflate wages and income and standard of living in order to make insinuations that are statistically wrong. At best they can be interpreted as making…

If you have stats to back up your assertions, present them. So far all you've done is made ad-hominem attacks against the authors of my study and incorrect claims about it's contents.

Re: The Cheapest Generation

#210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thaumaturgy's point was simple: rental costs have increased relative to wages and housing prices have increased relative to wages. It is no mystery why fewer young people are able to purchase real estate now than in the past. Or cars. At worst your argument and sources conflate wages and income and standard of living in order to make insinuations that are statistically wrong. At best they can be interpreted as making…

If you have stats to back up your assertions, present them. So far all you've done is made ad-hominem attacks against the authors of my study and incorrect claims about it's contents.

Sources for health care and housing statistics are already listed above and I do not make a single ad-hominem attack on the authors. If you can point out where exactly you think I am misrepresenting their argument I will be happy to provide page references so they can disagree with you themselves.

To cite just one example as evidence that you need to read AEI "research" more carefully, you can find the authors mention the mid-1980s inclusion of mobile homes and trailer parks as new forms of "housing consumption" in the first paragraph on page 15. I give them some credit for mentioning this, since it should be obvious even to the uninformed that aggregate measures of "housing consumption" are going to go up when you find new forms of housing to count half-way through your survey.

As far as the reputation of the AEI goes, it stopped having any when it fired David Frum for being too far left [1]. Mainstream economists find the institute laughable [2], and even conservative economists like Bruce Bartlett mock its employees as "scholars" (his quotes) [3]. Poor quality ideological broadsides like the one cited above are the norm rather than the exception. Charles Murray's "The Bell Curve" is broadly derided for racism, while Kevin Hassett and James Glassman are ridiculed in the mainstream media for backing pump-and-dump schemes like "Dow 36,000" and for seeming to be unaware of such basic economic concepts as discounted cash flow.

[1] http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03... [2] http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2011/10/the-uncertainty-argume... [3] http://capitalgainsandgames.com/blog/bruce-bartlett/1601/gro...

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