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The Gentle Singularity

blog.samaltman.com

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Re: The Gentle Singularity

#421

Post by sjducb »

grafmax wrote: post #372

> Scientific progress is the biggest driver of overall progress > There will be very hard parts like whole classes of jobs going away, but on the other hand the world will be getting so much richer so quickly that we’ll be able to seriously entertain new policy ideas we never could before Real wages haven’t risen since 1980. Wealth inequality has. Most people have much less political power than they used to as wealth…

The problem is that housing and health insurance are too expensive. Tech isn’t responsible for either of those problems.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#422

Post by gooseus »

ryandv wrote: post #151
gooseus wrote: post #107

[flagged]

> I am struggle to express myself in response to this, possibly because I'm at the bar, but I reeeaaally want to respond... so hold my beer and please forgive me for this long comment. I'm going to not only assume that you are of the male gender but also will assume that if you need to rely on a LLM to produce this kind of slop, substituting soda for beer isn't really going to assist with your literacy.

Lol, 1-1, though guessing my gender on HN doesn't really count for much.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#423

Post by tim333 »

justlikereddit wrote: post #328

It's like the tenth time openAI invents AGI? Like a storefront advertising "live your wildest dreams" in pink neon. A slightly obese Mediterranean man with questionable taste tries to get you into his fine establishment. And if you do enter the first thing that meets you is an interior with a little bit too many stains and a smell of cum. That's the vibe I get whenever Sam goes on his bi-quarterly AGI hype spree.

I don't think they have ever claimed to have invented AGI. They say coming soon but that's different.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#424

Post by fusionadvocate »

boole1854 wrote: post #414
fusionadvocate wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How has inflation behaved since 1980?

It rose 2.75% per year (239% over 45 years). Source with details: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JxIa

Can you walk me through how to reach this '239%' number? Thank you.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#425

Post by gooseus »

gjm11 wrote: post #132
gooseus wrote: post #107

[flagged]

> Well said 4o. If you are a system of immense intelligence then everyone should take this rebuttal seriously. Nope. Something can be written by a human being of immense intelligence but not deserve taking seriously, if (for instance) it was written as a deliberate attempt at deception or a joke. In this instance, you told the AI to argue for a particular conclusion and it did. If the conclusion should happen to be w…

The point I was trying to make was that the Sam Altman's of the world make a whole lot of unfalsifiable claims about the nature and capabilities of his AI, while just hand-waving a bunch of things away.

In my merry state last night I didn't do a great job so I'm not surprised by the lack of positive response, though I was kind of hoping some people would catch my drift. Oh well.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#426

Post by kjkjadksj »

sjducb wrote: post #421
grafmax wrote: post #372

> Scientific progress is the biggest driver of overall progress > There will be very hard parts like whole classes of jobs going away, but on the other hand the world will be getting so much richer so quickly that we’ll be able to seriously entertain new policy ideas we never could before Real wages haven’t risen since 1980. Wealth inequality has. Most people have much less political power than they used to as wealth…

The problem is that housing and health insurance are too expensive. Tech isn’t responsible for either of those problems.

In a way it is. Why are housing costs so high in Redmond, WA? The result of an influx of high income tech workers to the local housing market and the resulting shift of prices such as to eventually dilute the utility of that high salary to begin with. People in the area without a hook on that whale are of course left high and dry.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#427

Post by kjkjadksj »

Rooster61 wrote: post #406
nradov wrote: post #384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Real wages have risen a lot since 1980 when you include employer contributions to employee health insurance.

It's difficult for me to call those wages "real" when medical costs have been so absurdly gouged to eat up those contributions. Those increases have had no real impact on the average consumer, and is profoundly awful for those without access to employment that provides that insurance

All costs. New roof on the house? $30k. Hail damage on the car? It’s actually totaled. Whatever is in the store? Inflation certainly hit there too.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#430

Post by NoGravitas »

nhdjd wrote: post #272
greenie_beans wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

watch the cost of electricity go up because the demand created by data centers. i'm building an off grid solar system right now and it ain't cheap! thinking about a future where consumers are competing with data centers for electricity makes me think it might feel cheap in the future, though.

Fusion will show up soon dont worry. AI will accelerate its arrival.

Instead of always being 30 years in the future, it's now always 15 years in the future!
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