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The Gentle Singularity

blog.samaltman.com

401–410 of 557 posts

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Watt-hours seem good right now, and rebut the current arguments that LLMs are wasteful. They might soon stop being the right lens, if your agents can go off and (in parallel) expend some arbitrary and borderline-unknowable budget of energy on a single request. At some point you’ll need to measure in terms of $ earned per W-H, or just $out/$in.

To be clear, I'm only saying the unit is correct, not whether the number of watt-hours is accurate or (assuming it is correct) that it's a good amount to spend on each query.

Fair, I was trying to make a broader point without being clear about it :)

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#402
post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right. Jevons Paradox. The lower barrier to entry might mean the average quality of software goes WAY down. But this could be great if it means that there are 10x as many little apps that make one person happy by doing only as much as they need. The above is also consistent with the quantity of excellent software going way up as well (just slower than the below-average stuff).

What the android/apple appstores have taught me compared to the old symbian appstore is that we don't need more apps, we need decent ones. The current appstores have more.

Discovery definitely becomes more important in this world.

Fortunately AI helps with that too.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#403
post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, which country is the US going to be absorbed by?

You're saying the US is simultaneously non-functional but also responsible for providing free healthcare to every other country? If we're non-functional, where is all the foreign aid providing free stuff for us? C'mon other countries, give us free stuff. It will be great for your soft power, and prevent us from doing terrorist attacks on you.

I don't think the US is responsible for providing free healthcare for other countries. It should start doing that for its own people, though. That would be a big step towards being a functional country. Or maybe just not have legislation called "One Big Beautiful Bill". The US is a joke.

You are getting a lot of free stuff, because you own the dollar. That keeps you afloat so far, but I don't think it will last for much longer.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#404
post #349

While I prefer "event horizon" over "singularity", part of the reason I blogged about this distinction years ago was that the event horizon always seems to be ahead of you as you fall in to a black hole*. My blog posts didn't age all that well, and I've learned to be a little more sceptical about the speed of technological change, just as the political events over the intervening years have made me more aware of how…

I never really liked "singularity" as a term. If only because I like it's actual mathematical meaning. I always thought of the main event as AI intelligence overtaking human intelligence.

(you can get a mathematical singularity if you consider amount of stuff that can be produced per hour of human labour which should go infinite around the robot uprising)

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#405
post #392

> Scientific progress is the biggest driver of overall progress > There will be very hard parts like whole classes of jobs going away, but on the other hand the world will be getting so much richer so quickly that we’ll be able to seriously entertain new policy ideas we never could before Real wages haven’t risen since 1980. Wealth inequality has. Most people have much less political power than they used to as wealth…

>Real wages haven’t risen since 1980 is a very US thing. In China they've probably 10xd over that time.

That is because of China and US positions in the global system over this time. The wage/labor/inequality story is broadly true across the global north; China can credit forward thinking central planning, social programs, and industrialization for its economic progress (yet it continues to live under authoritarian rule).

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#406
post #384

> Scientific progress is the biggest driver of overall progress > There will be very hard parts like whole classes of jobs going away, but on the other hand the world will be getting so much richer so quickly that we’ll be able to seriously entertain new policy ideas we never could before Real wages haven’t risen since 1980. Wealth inequality has. Most people have much less political power than they used to as wealth…

Real wages have risen a lot since 1980 when you include employer contributions to employee health insurance.

It's difficult for me to call those wages "real" when medical costs have been so absurdly gouged to eat up those contributions. Those increases have had no real impact on the average consumer, and is profoundly awful for those without access to employment that provides that insurance

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What problem? I think you answered this with the rest of your comment.

This is intentional and is called a Rhetorical Question: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhetorical_question

I’m familiar with the concept of a rhetorical question.

It was not obvious to me that this was the author’s intent.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#408
post #350
post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>which is in many ways similar to our subconscious thinking this is just made up. - we don't have any useful insight on human subconscious thinking. - we don't have any useful insight on the structures that support human subconscious thinking. - the mechanisms that support human cognition that we do know about are radically different from the mechanisms that current models use. For example we know that biological neu…

The bullet list is a good point, but: > We also know that biological neural systems continuously learn and adapt, for example in the face of injury. Large models just don't do these things. This is a deliberate choice on the part of the model makers, because a fixed checkpoint is useful for a product. They could just keep the training mechanism going, but that's like writing code without version control. > Also this…

>This is a deliberate choice on the part of the model makers, because a fixed checkpoint is useful for a product. They could just keep the training mechanism going, but that's like writing code without version control.

Training more and learning online are really different processes. In the case of large models I can't see how it would be practical to have the model learn as it was used because it's shared by everyone.

>To the extent I agree with this, I think it conflicts with your own point about us not knowing how human minds work. Do I, myself, have deeper truths? Or am myself I making surface level association after surface level association, but have enough levels to make it seem deep? I do not know how many grains make the heap.

I can't speak for your cognition or subjective experience, but I do have both fundamental grounding experiences (like the time I hit my hand with an axe, the taste of good beer, sun on my face) and I have used trial and error to develop causative models of how these come to be. I have become good at anticipating which trials are too costly and have found ways to fill in the gaps where experience could hurt me further. Large models have none of these features or capabilities.

Of course I may be deceived by my cognition into believing that deeper processes exist that are illusory because that serves as a short cut to "fitter" behaviour and evolution has exploited this. But it seems unlikely to me.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#409
post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>. They fall on their face trying to work in sprawling codebases. >However, they are excellent at writing small bespoke programs For programmers I predict a future of a million micro services. Sprawling has always been an undesirable and unnecessary byproduct of growing code bases, but there's been no easy solution to that. I wonder if LLMs would perform better on a mono repo of many small services than one sprawling…

Micro service systems are just huge sprawling code bases with more glue code. Calling something over a network instead of via a local function call is still calling something.

Another way to look at it is - why force the agent to grapple with the whole code base when they can rapidly standup many single purpose services instead?

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#410
post #384

> Scientific progress is the biggest driver of overall progress > There will be very hard parts like whole classes of jobs going away, but on the other hand the world will be getting so much richer so quickly that we’ll be able to seriously entertain new policy ideas we never could before Real wages haven’t risen since 1980. Wealth inequality has. Most people have much less political power than they used to as wealth…

Real wages have risen a lot since 1980 when you include employer contributions to employee health insurance.

Not when you account for the insane rise in cost of health care.
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