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The Gentle Singularity

blog.samaltman.com

301–310 of 557 posts

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#301
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are lots of things AI could do. But the things AI will do are governed by the incentives of the underlying system (i.e. society).

Those incentives are themselves the output of a variety of heuristics that we rely on only due to a lack of viable alternatives. I expect that eventually AI will make some alternatives viable because the bottleneck is so often an information processing one. Three examples: - Loans get issued when they're likely to make a banker rich. We know that's a lousy proxy for assurances that their associated ventures will be b…

> Loans get issued when they're likely to make a banker rich. We know that's a lousy proxy for assurances that their associated ventures will be beneficial to the public, but it kinda sorta works enough.

This system exists and is optimized to make the bankers rich. The idea that it helps ensure that ventures using that money will be successful is the thin veneer used 100+ years ago to sell it to everyone. But the true purpose has always been to make bankers rich. If you to institute any other system that would not achieve that purpose, you will find yourself battling enormous opposition.

The same things are true for huge parts of our society. Perhaps the most glaringly obvious is the US Healthcare system. Experience from all over the world shows clearly that it is not an efficient way to organize Healthcare, by any stretch of the imagination. Still, it won't change, not because people don't believe the outside examples, but because the system is working for what it was designed to do - transfer huge amounts of money to rich people. And it delivers just enough health care that people aren't routing in the streets against it.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#302

> Already we live with incredible digital intelligence, and after some initial shock, most of us are pretty used to it. Very quickly we go from being amazed that AI can generate a beautifully-written paragraph to wondering when it can generate a beautifully-written novel; It was probably around 7 years ago when I first got interested in machine learning. Back then I followed a crude YouTube tutorial which consisted o…

> Over the years, the magic was never lost on me. However, I can never see LLMs as more than a "token prediction machine".

The "mere token prediction machine" criticism, like Pearl's "deep learning amounts to just curve fitting", is true but it also misses the point. AI in the end turns a mirror on humanity and will force us to accept that intelligence and consciousness can emerge from some pretty simple building blocks. That in some deep sense, all we are is curve fitting.

It reminds me of the lines from T.S. Eliot, “...And the end of all our exploring, Will be to arrive where we started, And know the place for the first time."

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#303
post #291
post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think KFC called that the Double Down, but to each their own. What of the argument against USAID’s rapid disassembly then? Is such an outcome permissible or even desired on account of sparing these funds sooner, aid continuity be damned?

At what speed should it be disassembled? I don't see how dragging things out will help. No matter how slow you go, people who want it to continue are going to say it's too fast. May as well rip the band aid off quickly. I mean, your plan seems to be: A. The US should give infinity money to everyone forever and never stop. If anyone ever dies, it's the US's fault for not supporting them enough. B. If you are going to…

>At what speed should it be disassembled?

A responsible pace that doesn't result in abrupt mass deaths due to the lack of aid continuity.

>A. The US should give infinity money to everyone forever and never stop. If anyone ever dies, it's the US's fault for not supporting them enough.

Nobody said that, but with operating the world's largest aid agency for the better part of a century comes massive responsibility.

>B. If you are going to stop, do it on the schedule of the people who are getting free stuff, and only stop when they decide they don't want free stuff anymore (i.e. never).

You're right. Hopefully those impoverished kids (many of whom are dead now) take some personal responsibility for themselves in the afterlife. To think we'd even entertain pulling their food and medicine on their schedule and not our schedule.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Unsurprisingly, this scared the crap out of the fossil fuel industry in the US and countries like Russia that are net exporters of fossil fuels, so they've spent decades lobbying to bind nuclear plant construction up in red tape to prevent them being built and funding anti-nuclear propaganda. This is frankly nonsense, and my hope is that this nonsense is coming from a person too young to remember the real, valid fe…

The fears from 3 Mile Island and Fukushima were almost completely irrational. The death toll from those was too low to measure. And the fears from Chernobyl was MOSTLY irrational. The reason for the extreme fears that are generated from even very moderate spills from nuclear plants comes in part from the association with nuclear bombs and in part from fear of the unknown. A lot (if not most) people shut their rationa…

I think you're underselling it - the atrocious safety level at Chernobyl appears to still be an improvement on the coal industry held to a high standard. It is a horrible irony that the environmentalist movement managed to do such incredible damage to the environment by their enthusiastic attacks on nuclear.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's what they said about electricity when nuclear power plants were proposed. What's your electricity bill like today?

The primary operating cost of traditional power plants is fuel, i.e. coal and natural gas. The fuel cost for nuclear power plants is negligible because the energy content is higher by more than a factor of a million. So if you build enough nuclear plants to power the grid, charging per kWh for the electricity is pointless because the marginal cost of the fuel is so low. Meanwhile the construction cost should be on pa…

It is worth noting that the effect is jaw-droppingly stark. The regulators managed to invert the learning curve [0] so the more power plants get built the more expensive it gets! It is one of the most stunning failures of an industrial society in the modern era; the damage this did to us all is huge. It is disheartening that our leadership/society chose to turn their backs on the future and we're all lucky that the Chinese chose a different tack to the West's policy of energy failure. At least there are still people who believe in industry.

[0] https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/12/2169 - Fig 3

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#307
post #54

Some reasoning tokens on this post: >Intelligence too cheap to meter is well within grasp And also: >cost of intelligence should eventually converge to near the cost of electricity. Which is a meter-worthy resource. So intelligence effect on people's lives is in the order of magnitude of one second of a toaster use each day, in present value. This begs the question: what could you do with a toaster-second say 5 years…

That's what they said about electricity when nuclear power plants were proposed. What's your electricity bill like today?

The thing is, nuclear was never on such a steep learning curve as solar and batteries are today.

It’ll never be too cheap to meter, but electricity will get much cheaper over the coming decades, and so will synthetic hydrocarbons on the back of it.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#308

> Already we live with incredible digital intelligence, and after some initial shock, most of us are pretty used to it. Very quickly we go from being amazed that AI can generate a beautifully-written paragraph to wondering when it can generate a beautifully-written novel; It was probably around 7 years ago when I first got interested in machine learning. Back then I followed a crude YouTube tutorial which consisted o…

The mere token prediction comment is wrong, but I don't think any of the other comments really explained why. Next token prediction is not what the AI does, but its goal. It's like saying soccer is a boring sport having only ever seen the final scores. The important thing about LLMs is that they can internally represent many different complex ideas efficiently and coherently! This makes them an incredible starting point for further training. Nowadays no LLM you interact with will be a pure next token predictor anymore, they will have all gone through various stages of RL, so that they actually do what we want them to do. I think I really feel the magic looking at the "circuit" work by Anthropic. It really shows that these models have some internal processing / thinking that is complex and clever.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#309
post #303
post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At what speed should it be disassembled? I don't see how dragging things out will help. No matter how slow you go, people who want it to continue are going to say it's too fast. May as well rip the band aid off quickly. I mean, your plan seems to be: A. The US should give infinity money to everyone forever and never stop. If anyone ever dies, it's the US's fault for not supporting them enough. B. If you are going to…

> At what speed should it be disassembled? A responsible pace that doesn't result in abrupt mass deaths due to the lack of aid continuity. > A. The US should give infinity money to everyone forever and never stop. If anyone ever dies, it's the US's fault for not supporting them enough. Nobody said that, but with operating the world's largest aid agency for the better part of a century comes massive responsibility. >…

> You're right. Hopefully those impoverished kids (many of whom are dead now) take some personal responsibility for themselves in the afterlife. To think we'd even entertain pulling their food and medicine on their schedule and not our schedule.

The children? No, but their parents and the other adults running their country. That is who is responsible for providing for them. Americans have their own children they need to take care of and do not need their money seized and sent overseas to take care of other people's children.

And yes, maybe it is a "rug pull" but it was always going to be. It is immoral to engender such dependence in the first place, like keeping someone slightly poisoned so they're constantly sick and dependent on you to take care of them. Let people grow strong so they can take care of themselves and treat with them as equals.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#310
post #303
post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At what speed should it be disassembled? I don't see how dragging things out will help. No matter how slow you go, people who want it to continue are going to say it's too fast. May as well rip the band aid off quickly. I mean, your plan seems to be: A. The US should give infinity money to everyone forever and never stop. If anyone ever dies, it's the US's fault for not supporting them enough. B. If you are going to…

> At what speed should it be disassembled? A responsible pace that doesn't result in abrupt mass deaths due to the lack of aid continuity. > A. The US should give infinity money to everyone forever and never stop. If anyone ever dies, it's the US's fault for not supporting them enough. Nobody said that, but with operating the world's largest aid agency for the better part of a century comes massive responsibility. >…

We were trying to have nuanced discussions about these things 10 years ago and were ignored. The time for going slowly was then. Now things are just going to get done.
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