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The Gentle Singularity

blog.samaltman.com

81–90 of 557 posts

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#82

> A lot more people will be able to create software, and art. But the world wants a lot more of both, and experts will probably still be much better than novices, as long as they embrace the new tools. This isn't correct: people want good software and good art, and the current trajectory of how LLMs are used on average in the real world unfortunately run counter to that. This post doesn't offer any forecasts on the h…

> is watt-hours the right unit of measurement here? That's how electricity is most commonly priced. What else would you want?

It's more that every time the topic has come up, it's reported in watts and I'm not sure if there's a nuance I'm missing. It's entirely possible those reports have been in watt-hours though and using watts for shorthand.

I still find the Technology Connections video counterintuitive. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOK5xkFijPc

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#83
post #13

> It’s hard to even imagine today what we will have discovered by 2035; maybe we will go from solving high-energy physics one year to beginning space colonization the next year I heard similar things in my college dorm, amid all the hazy smoke. It’s very difficult to take this stuff seriously. It’s like the initial hype around self driving cars wound up by 1000x. Because we got from 1 to 100 of course we’ll get from…

I find it hard to believe too, but at the same time, Demis Hassabis has also said that AI will help us "colonize the galaxy" in as little as five years [1]. Maybe Sam Altman was emboldened by Hassabis' statement. I would not be opposed to living in a future where I can personally live in space. It would be quite fun. [1] (paywalled) https://fortune.com/2025/06/06/google-deepmind-ceo-demis-has...

We'll get that shortly after he delivers the infinite polygon engine…

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#85
post #68
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have this dream of having 4-5 robotic construction workers* capable of tearing down a Single Family home and building a four-plex in its stead overnight. Then, I just buy houses in High COL areas and start popping them up and moving families in ASAP. What are they gonna do evict working families? Good luck Then dissolve the underlying corporation before the municipal fines kick in and escape into the night. Render…

> What are they gonna do evict working families? Good luck This seems optimistic.

If a "professional tenant" with an adversarial landlord can hang on for years, I feel like my chances with no landlords and a clean deed is actually much better.

It's simply pitting the most dysfunctional municipal and judicial systems against each other with the default outcome being people being housed.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#86
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think we've run out of space to build or something?

Think bigger. Earth will only be good for the next 2 billion years or so.

okay, for now I'll just continue to live in a tent in some Berkeley NIMBY's backyard for $50/week while I pick up whatever small time gig-app contract jobs I can. You've convinced me to look at the bigger picture. Our generation really doesn't deserve to benefit from any solutions anyway.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#87
> We are past the event horizon; the takeoff has started. Humanity is close to building digital superintelligence, and at least so far it’s much less weird than it seems like it should be.

Not sure if wishful thinking trying to LARP-manifest this future into being, or just more unfalsifiable thinking where we can always be said to be past the event horizon and near to the singularity, given sufficiently underwhelming definitions of "event horizon" and "nearness."

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#88
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Affordable space colonization will solve that. ;)

Do you think we've run out of space to build or something?

Sort of? I wouldn't want to cover a ton of the planets surface with low rise suburbs, and the hinterland requirements for cities are vast.

At the very least, moving heavy extractive industries out of the biosphere would be a sensible allocation of resources: metal and energy are common in the solar system, but life supporting ecosystems are not.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> people want good software and good art, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k85mRPqvMbE

There's a difference between a 2000's character brute-forced through millions of advertising dollars to sell ringtones to children, and whatever the hell is happening in the https://www.meta.ai/ Discover feed. One aspect about modern generative AI that has surprised me is that it should have resulted in a new age of creatively surreal shitposts, but instead we have people Ghiblifying themselves and pictures of Trump…

Why would you expect the average person to have exceptional taste to produce things you like? Go listen to a random Spotify track, you probably won't like that either. Art still needs to be curated and given some direction. Metas random AI feed created by the average FB user is indicative of nothing.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#90
post #23

> The rate of new wonders being achieved will be immense. It’s hard to even imagine today what we will have discovered by 2035; maybe we will go from solving high-energy physics one year to beginning space colonization the next year; or from a major materials science breakthrough one year to true high-bandwidth brain-computer interfaces the next year. How about affordable housing?

AI is not going to solve the world's political or social problems. Every person on the planet can have affordable housing, clean water, food, medicine and lots more today if people can collectively agree that we want it to happen. There are no equations standing in our way. Artificial intelligence is best applied to problems our brains cannot comprehend.
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