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The Gentle Singularity

blog.samaltman.com

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Re: The Gentle Singularity

#41

Post by Bjartr »

satisfice wrote: post #22

“We” are not wondering whether AI can write “a beautifully written novel.” Yes, some people are. Other people know a novel cannot be written by a machine— because a novel is human by definition, and AI is not human, by definition. It’s like wondering if a machine can express heartfelt condolences. Certainly a machine can string words together that humans associate with other humans who express heartfelt condolences,…

> because a novel is human by definition

I thought a novel was just a decent length fiction book?

The purpose of fiction at least isn't to express true feeling, it's to instill feeling in the reader. To that end it doesn't matter the process that produces the words.

Is AI going to win the Pulitzer any time soon? Nah.

Is AI going to be able to produce novel length works of fiction that are good enough for at least some people in the near future? Most likely.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#42

Post by layer8 »

Mobius01 wrote: post #31

> A lot more people will be able to create software, and art. But the world wants a lot more of both, and experts will probably still be much better than novices, as long as they embrace the new tools. "probably", "if they embrace the new tools". Hard to read anything but contempt for the role of humans in creative endeavors here, he advocates for quantity as a measure of success.

I read that as “certainly you won’t have any chance if you don’t embrace our tools”.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#43

Post by pj_mukh »

xg15 wrote: post #23

> The rate of new wonders being achieved will be immense. It’s hard to even imagine today what we will have discovered by 2035; maybe we will go from solving high-energy physics one year to beginning space colonization the next year; or from a major materials science breakthrough one year to true high-bandwidth brain-computer interfaces the next year. How about affordable housing?

I have this dream of having 4-5 robotic construction workers* capable of tearing down a Single Family home and building a four-plex in its stead overnight.

Then, I just buy houses in High COL areas and start popping them up and moving families in ASAP. What are they gonna do evict working families? Good luck

Then dissolve the underlying corporation before the municipal fines kick in and escape into the night. Render municipal and neighborhood control laws meaningless.

*may not be humanoid, I'm skirting that debate here.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#44

Post by simmanian »

smackeyacky wrote: post #24
simmanian wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it hard to believe too, but at the same time, Demis Hassabis has also said that AI will help us "colonize the galaxy" in as little as five years [1]. Maybe Sam Altman was emboldened by Hassabis' statement. I would not be opposed to living in a future where I can personally live in space. It would be quite fun. [1] (paywalled) https://fortune.com/2025/06/06/google-deepmind-ceo-demis-has...

Fun? It would be like signing up to live in an inescapable prison.

Well, I didn't say I look forward to living in a tiny capsule in space, just that it would be fun to live in a time where that's possible. I'd imagine most people would not venture into space until they can make it comfortable enough.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#46

Post by muglug »

I’ve heard a joke that under Steve Jobs, the number of big initiatives at Apple was limited to the number of execs Steve could shout at in a given day.

I see a similar thing at work — the number of projects a developer can get through isn’t bounded by the lines of code they can churn out in a day. Instead it’s bounded by their appetite for getting shouted at when something goes wrong.

Until you can shout at an LLM, I don’t think they’re going to replace humans in the workplace.

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#47

Post by shitpostbot »

xg15 wrote: post #23

> The rate of new wonders being achieved will be immense. It’s hard to even imagine today what we will have discovered by 2035; maybe we will go from solving high-energy physics one year to beginning space colonization the next year; or from a major materials science breakthrough one year to true high-bandwidth brain-computer interfaces the next year. How about affordable housing?

[dead]

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#48

Post by bluefirebrand »

jfernandez wrote: post #38

What's the goal of posting this right now ? A lot of what's written here seems to be well-trodden ground from the last two years of discussions, is it just to centralize a thesis within one post?

It's damage control because of recent research papers being published saying that AI is not reasoning

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#49

Post by righthand »

jfernandez wrote: post #38

What's the goal of posting this right now ? A lot of what's written here seems to be well-trodden ground from the last two years of discussions, is it just to centralize a thesis within one post?

This seems like keeping up appearances. And an attempt to renew the glassy eyed magic trick feeling of it all. Let’s all wallow in the glory of statistics, shall we?

Re: The Gentle Singularity

#50

Post by chasing »

> A lot more people will be able to create software, and art. But the world wants a lot more of both, and experts will probably still be much better than novices, as long as they embrace the new tools.

"Hey, it'd be a shame if somethin', uh, happened to that nice bit of expertise ya got there, y'know. A darn shame."

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