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Imagine visiting a gas station in 2040:
• will it sell gas?
• what convenience items will it sell?
• who, if anyone, will staff it?
• what payment methods will it accept?
• what signage and decor will it use?
• will it offer new services?
Most gas stations today only have one employee at a time so it seems hard to cut that down (and not much incentive tbh).
Electric cars today are still under 10%. Cars last a really long time, so even if there is a huge surge in electric self-driving cars by 2030 there will still be lots of ICE cars on the road in 15 years.
https://www.axios.com/2022/07/15/gas-stations-prices-closing
Advancements in AI might make it possible to have attendant-less stations if you can have automated sales of snacks and other merchandise, and automated payments for chargers and gas, maybe you don't need an attendant on duty 24/7
A lounge. There are too many today, tens of thousands will close. Most charging will take place at home or at work. EVs support payment by VIN with crypto primitives negotiating with the charger over the charger cable before charging starts, so how ever you’ll fund that balance (likely instant payments). https://www.axios.com/2022/07/15/gas-stations-prices-closing
Perhaps some larger chain will step in, and incorporate one dinky petrol station at each location? The safety issues probably rule out a chain restaurant, but maybe Walmart will become the go-to.
A lounge. There are too many today, tens of thousands will close. Most charging will take place at home or at work. EVs support payment by VIN with crypto primitives negotiating with the charger over the charger cable before charging starts, so how ever you’ll fund that balance (likely instant payments). https://www.axios.com/2022/07/15/gas-stations-prices-closing
I agree that the petrol/diesel niche will increasingly shrink, but it could take decades to vanish. Perhaps some larger chain will step in, and incorporate one dinky petrol station at each location? The safety issues probably rule out a chain restaurant, but maybe Walmart will become the go-to.
Petrol won’t go away overnight, but it will reach tipping points where it’s no longer cost effective to deliver it to areas or host a petrol station once an inflection point occurs with regards to demand.
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/how-big-a-deal-is-walmarts-p...
https://corporate.walmart.com/news/2023/04/06/leading-the-ch...
https://electrek.co/2023/10/20/cratering-motor-fuel-sales-in... (great comment on this: “Every day in the U.S. now there is enough EVs sold to displace an entire gas station-worth of fuel. Per day. And this is rapidly accelerating.”)
It is hard to predict a new advancement in EV technology, but if we get to a point where an EV is cheaper than the equivalent ICE and charges faster than you can gas up (so about twice as fast as the fastest EV today), and has a longer range than the equivalent ICE, then people will buy more of them. Then we will start to see more EV chargers than gas stations. Advancements in AI might make it possible to have attend…
Yes and especially diesel which will not go away for a few generations. There are no EV replacements for heavy trucks and they do not appear to be viable yet. 3500 through 7500 series. Battery tech will have to make science fiction level improvements. When those trucks are gone society comes to a stand-still. Comparison to earth moving equipment in mines do not apply.
what convenience items will it sell?
The popular versions of what they sell today and is known to bring in revenue.
who, if anyone, will staff it?
Mostly high-school kids, some people that do not have the confidence to move on and some with criminal backgrounds.
what payment methods will it accept?
Credit, Debit, Cash. Maybe bitcoin.
will it offer new services?
If they have the parking lot space then there may be battery swap stations to quickly swap out EV packs, offer paid upgrades to newer batteries and battery tech every few years.
A lounge. There are too many today, tens of thousands will close. Most charging will take place at home or at work. EVs support payment by VIN with crypto primitives negotiating with the charger over the charger cable before charging starts, so how ever you’ll fund that balance (likely instant payments). https://www.axios.com/2022/07/15/gas-stations-prices-closing