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The time bomb in the tax code that's fueling mass tech layoffs

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441–450 of 991 posts

Re: The time bomb in the tax code that's fueling mass tech layoffs

#441
post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But where an established company invests steadily in software, whether it is amoritized or deducted year to year is a wash. Rather than harm tech, this would seem to protect established US companies at the expense of startups. Thats probably great for shareholders in publicly traded companies. It seems just another querk of taxation meant to maintain the established order

It's only a wash if they've been amortizing all along. There's been no advantage to doing so, so established ones have all been deducting, and will have the same five year window of increased taxable income that startups will.

Startups have to face that five year window every time they start up.

Each and every startup will have a year 0 where they're spending more than they earn, and under the new Section 174 they will only get to deduct 10% of their employee's salaries that year. In year two they get to deduct 20% of year 1's salaries and 10% of year 2's salaries, which is still 30% of what the established players will be able to deduct. By year 4, if they make it that far (which most startups don't) they'll finally be at 90% of a full deduction.

Add to that the fact that startups also by definition have a much higher rate of growth than established companies and you'll find that a startup almost definitionally will be paying substantially more in taxes as long as it remains a startup, because they only get to deduct an average of the last 5 years of expenses from this year's revenue in order to calculate this year's profit. That's fine when your last five years are more or less similar to this one, but it's terrible when you've been growing.

The net effect of this change can only be to disincentive startups and cement big, slow established players.

Re: The time bomb in the tax code that's fueling mass tech layoffs

#442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For many assets, like real estate, there are liquid markets with market prices. There are a number of US states that already tax based on real estate value, you can dispute the assessed value but that impacts other things like insured value. Being difficult to assess value is a problem they’ll make you pay an accountant for and punish you if you get it wrong, it’s not going to stop them.

In the US, most recent studies of asset portfolios suggest that 60-70% of notional asset value has no liquid market. We already generate fictitious valuations for compliance purposes in many cases (e.g. 409A) that no one confuses with being representative of actual value. Tax policy based on overt fiction is bad policy. Even in the case of real estate, a large amount of value is locked up in extremely non-liquid mark…

They’ll make up a number and make you spend money proving otherwise. The government won’t care about your inconvenience when they need the money.

Of course this is a prediction of something that hasn’t happened before but looking at the chess prices move this does appear to be an intended destination.

Re: The time bomb in the tax code that's fueling mass tech layoffs

#443
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What i like about US is that compare to other countries (like for example Russia where i'm originally from) there is almost no lying and cheating here. Instead there is a respect of the law and an army of talented creative accountants and lawyers. Remember that stale "multi-used" sandwich served with the drink which by virtue of its existence converted drinking establishment into a food serving restaurant? Not being…

> almost no lying and cheating here Are you living in an alternate world?

Or are cynical Americans living in an alternate world, blind to how much better the rule of law is here than most other countries? The commenter's comparison was to Russia. When was the last time Putin lost an election?

I'd say we're slightly behind western Europe as far as rule of law goes, not really sure about the advanced east (Japan, Korea), and miles ahead of just about everywhere else (eastern Europe, Russia, Africa, China, etc). Yes, even with Trump in office, though he really makes me worry.

Re: The time bomb in the tax code that's fueling mass tech layoffs

#444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For many assets, like real estate, there are liquid markets with market prices. There are a number of US states that already tax based on real estate value, you can dispute the assessed value but that impacts other things like insured value. Being difficult to assess value is a problem they’ll make you pay an accountant for and punish you if you get it wrong, it’s not going to stop them.

In the US, most recent studies of asset portfolios suggest that 60-70% of notional asset value has no liquid market. We already generate fictitious valuations for compliance purposes in many cases (e.g. 409A) that no one confuses with being representative of actual value. Tax policy based on overt fiction is bad policy. Even in the case of real estate, a large amount of value is locked up in extremely non-liquid mark…

If your asset valuations were swinging by an order of magnitude (10x), that wasn’t real estate, it was gambling in the fog.

Re: The time bomb in the tax code that's fueling mass tech layoffs

#445
Meta: god articles like this drive me crazy. What ever happened to the inverted pyramid hierarchy of information? I have to read 3 paragraphs of unmitigated filler before they actually tell me what's changed. It's not just this article, it seems like every article on newer media sites is like this. I understand why, but fuck them very much and the incentives that drive this behavior.

Re: The time bomb in the tax code that's fueling mass tech layoffs

#446
post #426
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not really targeted at tech, insomuch as at Democrats. Everyone assumed it was a traditional accounting hack. But given the timing and the reinitialization, it's clearly political, not economic. The code is a strategic time-bomb designed to cause a high-profile economic downturn during a presidential election cycle, specifically when the following president is a Democrat and Republicans have a house majority. It…

This is just wrong. It was passed in 2017 (during Trump’s presidency). It was to go into effect in 2020 (a presidential election year during Trump’s presidency). He hoped to be re-elected.

No. It went into effect in 2022 [0], which means the timeline absolutely does track with OP's theory. That gives a hypothetical Trump term 2 a full year to fix it but also imposes enough of a time crunch that they could plan on sabotaging attempts to fix it by another party.

I'm not saying it's the actual story, but the timeline does track.

[0] Page 60, Sec 1306(e) sets the date: https://www.congress.gov/115/bills/hr1/BILLS-115hr1enr.pdf

Re: The time bomb in the tax code that's fueling mass tech layoffs

#447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If the US were approximately an equal democracy, this might be less of an issue Equal to what?

Equal in voting rights. Gerrymandering has been perfected by Republicans. Through that they manage to dilute votes of the opposition. Other measures discourage voters likely to vote against them, like people who cannot easily take time off to vote in person or who have changed their name. Blocking rank choice and maintaining first past the post also disenfranchise third parties, and reinforces the power of incumbents…

?? Both sides happily gerrymander. It’s been around since 1812 and both sides are equally guilty at this point.

Re: The time bomb in the tax code that's fueling mass tech layoffs

#449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What i like about US is that compare to other countries (like for example Russia where i'm originally from) there is almost no lying and cheating here. Instead there is a respect of the law and an army of talented creative accountants and lawyers I thought you were being sarcastic here at first because, good lord, there is plenty of corruption here in the US (though those doing it used to care more about hiding it)…

> I thought you were being sarcastic here at first because, You've never been in Russia. There is no clear law abiding business there. That opens a lot of opportunities for those with some power. Corruption is one of them, selective punishment is another. I'm sure in most 3d world situation is not better, but they at least don't have laws to cheat and bribing isn't a crime.

[deleted]

Re: The time bomb in the tax code that's fueling mass tech layoffs

#450
post #443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> almost no lying and cheating here Are you living in an alternate world?

Or are cynical Americans living in an alternate world, blind to how much better the rule of law is here than most other countries? The commenter's comparison was to Russia. When was the last time Putin lost an election? I'd say we're slightly behind western Europe as far as rule of law goes, not really sure about the advanced east (Japan, Korea), and miles ahead of just about everywhere else (eastern Europe, Russia,…

I mean, the sitting President was shilling cars on the White House lawn and runs an active meme coin bribery slush fund.

This is not slightly behind Western Europe. This is miles behind any developed country. China may be corrupt, but Xi Jinping hasn’t yet sold beans or cars via press conference.

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