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See how a dollar would have grown over the past 94 years [pdf]

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Re: See how a dollar would have grown over the past 94 years [pdf]

#71
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same type of argument can be made about bonds and even cash. And if a diversified portfolio of US stocks all suddenly go bankrupt, that probably means the US is toast and therefore bonds are screwed too. Outside of catastrophic black swan events, like I said, stocks generally mean revert if you have a long enough time horizon to allow it

This is almost the definition of technical analysis: “chart always reverted to mean so it will always revert to mean” Note that almost every exchange outside the US has been flat or negative for decades. The US has held a precious position for a few generations that’s made “chart go up” feel like a given

>Note that almost every exchange outside the US has been flat or negative for decades.

As someone who works in finance this struck me as a remarkable claim. Upon inspection it turns out to be spectacularly incorrect. After adjusting for inflation it's actually the opposite, the vast majority of countries have seen their own version of the S&P 500 grow over a 30 year period, after adjusting for inflation, not stagnation or decline. Developing countries, particularly those in Asia, have seen incredible returns over a 30 year period, albeit with a great deal of volatility involved.

Our neighbor to the north, Canada, has seen gains that are slightly below the U.S., but our neighbor to the south, Mexico has seen about the same growth as our own, once again accounting for Mexico's own inflation.

Europe has also experienced a great deal of growth with many European countries even growing moreso than the U.S., for example Germany.

While there are examples of decline, they are in countries that are both poor and have unstable governments. Most countries that are strictly poor but don't suffer from instability have for the most part seen growth rather than stagnation.

So I don't know exactly what led you to believe your claim that "almost every exchange" has been flat or negative, but it's certainly not correct.

Re: See how a dollar would have grown over the past 94 years [pdf]

#72

Note that the government has huge incentives to downplay the inflation rate. Over the time period of the graph, the price of gold went up by about 100x; I would consider that a more accurate estimate of inflation than the 18x number implied by the chart. Due to the way exponentials work, you can hide a lot of inflation over 100 years by claiming the annual rate is just half a percent lower than it really is.

Gold is up ~40% over the past year. Are you really going to claim inflation is up 40% over that time period?

I think Gold is too susceptible to price fluctuations from speculators and that you should use Copper or something that people don't hoard to re-sell.

Re: See how a dollar would have grown over the past 94 years [pdf]

#73
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the timescale of 30 years for gov bonds vs diversified US stocks, this is almost meaningless statement. The longer a risky asset is held, the less chance of loss you’ll have. Short-horizon returns are extremely volatile, but that volatility "mean-reverts" over time. This is especially true for stocks vs bonds. Because the cash flows of bonds are fixed, prolonged inflation or rate spikes can deliver a loss that sta…

> On the timescale of 30 years for gov bonds vs diversified US stocks, this is almost meaningless statement. The longer a risky asset is held, the less chance of loss you’ll have. Short-horizon returns are extremely volatile, but that volatility "mean-reverts" over time. This is only true if you look back 30 years. What will happen in the next 30 years? Do you know for sure?

Yeah buying Norwegian airlines stock for example would have been a brilliant idea, right. I mean country like Norway with their sovereign fund, oil, very moral population and good government etc, nothing can ever go wrong.

Re: See how a dollar would have grown over the past 94 years [pdf]

#74
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the timescale of 30 years for gov bonds vs diversified US stocks, this is almost meaningless statement. The longer a risky asset is held, the less chance of loss you’ll have. Short-horizon returns are extremely volatile, but that volatility "mean-reverts" over time. This is especially true for stocks vs bonds. Because the cash flows of bonds are fixed, prolonged inflation or rate spikes can deliver a loss that sta…

> On the timescale of 30 years for gov bonds vs diversified US stocks, this is almost meaningless statement. The longer a risky asset is held, the less chance of loss you’ll have. Short-horizon returns are extremely volatile, but that volatility "mean-reverts" over time. This is only true if you look back 30 years. What will happen in the next 30 years? Do you know for sure?

I guess the questions to be asked would be

Will the US economy completely collapse in the next 30 years?

Will the US government completely collapse in the next 30 years.

For the past century I think the answers to those questions would have been, "Almost certainly not" and "Not a chance in hell"

I honestly didn't know where they stand today, but there's definitely been movement.

Re: See how a dollar would have grown over the past 94 years [pdf]

#75
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Nikkei 225 is still below its peak value from December of 1989. The US is an outlier in terms of historical average stock market returns and there is no guarantee this outperformance will continue into the future. Actually I'd say it's less likely, given that should it continue, the US market cap will eat the entire world stock market. The US stock market is currently 62% of the world's stock market capitalizatio…

Only if you invested everything in the Nikkei on the height of the market though. Many US companies are pretty global and have a lot of sales outside the USA. In that sense the risk is a lot less concentrated outside of extreme political events.

Many international companies are global, and have a lot of sales to the US. But I never see anybody using that as a justification for not investing in the US.

As to the Nikkei retort this seems to be hindsight bias and ignorance of historical context, the general consensus at the time (both inside and outside of Japan) was that the Japanese economy was going to take over the world.

Re: See how a dollar would have grown over the past 94 years [pdf]

#77
post #54
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the timescale of 30 years for gov bonds vs diversified US stocks, this is almost meaningless statement. The longer a risky asset is held, the less chance of loss you’ll have. Short-horizon returns are extremely volatile, but that volatility "mean-reverts" over time. This is especially true for stocks vs bonds. Because the cash flows of bonds are fixed, prolonged inflation or rate spikes can deliver a loss that sta…

The Nikkei 225 is still below its peak value from December of 1989. The US is an outlier in terms of historical average stock market returns and there is no guarantee this outperformance will continue into the future. Actually I'd say it's less likely, given that should it continue, the US market cap will eat the entire world stock market. The US stock market is currently 62% of the world's stock market capitalizatio…

The Nikkei 225 may be below its 1989 peak in price terms but you can’t ignore the dividends which an actual investment in the index would have paid during that period. On a total return basis (if you had reinvested the dividends into the index as you received them) the Nikkei passed its 1989 peak in 2021.

Re: See how a dollar would have grown over the past 94 years [pdf]

#78
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one spends percentages. You spend dollars. Differences in annual compounding are tremendous. I would even argue logarithmic scales on charts are rarely useful. They’re inappropriately used in financial charts all the time.

This comment is a microcosm of how HN is essentially indistinguishable from Reddit nowadays in the quality of discussion.

[deleted]

Re: See how a dollar would have grown over the past 94 years [pdf]

#79
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> On the timescale of 30 years for gov bonds vs diversified US stocks, this is almost meaningless statement. The longer a risky asset is held, the less chance of loss you’ll have. Short-horizon returns are extremely volatile, but that volatility "mean-reverts" over time. This is only true if you look back 30 years. What will happen in the next 30 years? Do you know for sure?

Yeah buying Norwegian airlines stock for example would have been a brilliant idea, right. I mean country like Norway with their sovereign fund, oil, very moral population and good government etc, nothing can ever go wrong.

It's hardly fair to portray stock market investment in that way, though. Nobody should be investing in a single stock for 30 years. A diversified sector EFT is just as easy to buy and comes with diversification so a single failing company doesn't have that much of an impact.

Re: See how a dollar would have grown over the past 94 years [pdf]

#80
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Nikkei 225 is still below its peak value from December of 1989. The US is an outlier in terms of historical average stock market returns and there is no guarantee this outperformance will continue into the future. Actually I'd say it's less likely, given that should it continue, the US market cap will eat the entire world stock market. The US stock market is currently 62% of the world's stock market capitalizatio…

The Nikkei 225 may be below its 1989 peak in price terms but you can’t ignore the dividends which an actual investment in the index would have paid during that period. On a total return basis (if you had reinvested the dividends into the index as you received them) the Nikkei passed its 1989 peak in 2021.

I struggle to understand why an educated crowd like HN routinely forgets dividends when posting any sort of financial charts. Total returns are what matters.
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