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"AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

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Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#23

What if it just makes most jobs worse, or replaces good jobs with more, worse jobs? "Meat robot constantly monitored and directed by AI overlords" is technically a job.

I can't make up my mind if I'd prefer an AI boss or not. Human bosses can be quite terrible and not having to deal with an emotional being seems kinda nice.

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#25
The problem with the discourse around AI is that people tend to fall for the extremes.

"AI will replace all programmers within 1 year"

vs

"AI is just another fad like NFTs"

Both sides are very obviously wrong, and the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Most people knowledgeable about AI agree that it will eventually surpass humans in all tasks requiring mental labor (and will thus displace those humans, as using AI will be cheaper than employing people), but no one knows exactly when this will happen. I personally believe it will happen within the next 10 years, but it’s really just a slightly educated guess.

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#26
post #10

Of course AI will replace us. Just like the steam engine did, just like robots did, just like computers did. Oh, wait.

Cars replaced horses, cause they were clearly better at their job. Humans' primary labor value to society at large comes from their brains, and ability to do multiple physical tasks, some featuring precise movements, with little instruction/development.

The idea that computers and general purpose robots cannot possibly replace humans is no longer outrageous to me. Especially if we are talking about a few key humans controlling / managing multiple robots to do what was previously the work of N humans.

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#28

My personal thoughts on this are - A good lawyer + AI will likely win in court against a non lawyer with AI who would likely win in court against just an AI - A good software engineer + AI will ship features faster / safer vs a non engineer with AI, who will beat just AI - A good doctor + AI will save more lives than a non doctor + AI, who will perform better than just AI As long as a human has a marginal boost to AI…

That’s all well and good for the humans with experience, for whom AI is a force multiplier.

My concern is for the juniors - there’s going to be far fewer opportunities for them to get started in careers.

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#29

My personal thoughts on this are - A good lawyer + AI will likely win in court against a non lawyer with AI who would likely win in court against just an AI - A good software engineer + AI will ship features faster / safer vs a non engineer with AI, who will beat just AI - A good doctor + AI will save more lives than a non doctor + AI, who will perform better than just AI As long as a human has a marginal boost to AI…

You (and I) prefer to keep the pilots there, but still, there's a push to need only one person and not two in that plane/cockpit. I have little to no doubt we'll have to relearn some hard lessons after we've AI'd up pilots.

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#30
I rarely hear people talk about the fact that demand for new software will increase exponentially as cost to produce software crash. The ratios of devs_per_1k_lines_of_code_in_2022:devs_per_1k_lines_of_code_in_2028 and increase_in_demand:decrease_in_cost are unknown. But what if 1 dev could produce 300% more code, reducing eng cost (assuming same cost per hour per dev) to 1/3 of historical norms. Would that result in an increase of 20% in demand? Probably not, more like 1000%.

If that's the case, there is a large net increase in demand for experienced devs who know how to use AI for coding. Demand will go up massively, I have zero doubt of that, but will AI get so much better that unskilled MBAs are making large complex apps? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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